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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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About this blog

Stuff I would, up until now, post on FB for my friends and such. In here, I am very Central PA - "centric", but not entirely.

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Oh, it's drying time again....

And we sure hope it has no notion of (ever) leaving (though we know that nothing is forever).  The old pattern is dead (for now) and may it remain in the dust bin of history (for at least a while). Let's let NWS speak to just how.  Great news for local hot spots that rely on less than soaked conditions (e.g. - golf course, ice cream vendors, local fundraiser fairs).  I'm going to keep this entry short - not even look into the next pattern change (not that it will be bad) just so we can focus on simply enjoying the next 5-7 days of sunny Summer delight. 🙂  

UTSwiinii

UTSwiinii

 

Desperately seeking summer.

Obviously, we've been stuck in a rut, a muddy rut at that - nay, a dangerously muddy rut. More than just a nuisance for many in the eastern parts of PA, especially along terrain, the pattern is one that can't move on quickly enough. The reports I've seen and heard rival that of damage from Agnes and Lee! 😮  Here's  a look at just the past 24hours of rainfall (estimated) I don't have to tell you about the rain for the past 3 weeks, let alone pretty much since early July - the soils structure, even with full blown summer flora supporting, can't take any more. Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains dangerously low.  Can we see any hope in sight? Well, I've been looking for a ridge structure (high pressure) shift in orientation that would bring some drier conditions and a change to the outlook. Refer to prior posts for details of those thoughts - let's look at some recent computer modeling to see if the weekend (I call it ~20th -IOW a week from now) offers any hope.    Well, not exactly - we do have ridging along the east (orange "humps") and the trough is mid country (blues) with the heart of it in Canada (dark blue tight circles). The question becomes, can that hold? We see the strongest Atlantic ridging still residing in the Central to Eastern position, as opposed to a more western orientation.  The gang from Weather World has this to say about the beginning of the time period we're looking at - a signal that we finally get under a ridge, even if briefly. Turning summer!!? Hooray.  But again, we have to wonder if the pattern is truly broken.  Again, we go to computer imaging to help. This time, we'll munch some spaghetti, as in spaghetti charts. These charts are a representation of several runs of the same computer model, but with slightly differing initial conditions fed into the computers (and run at slightly weaker resolution) - the white lines are the main (deterministic) run of the model - the colored lines represent the ensemble "members" (each different run of the same model). Where the colored lines are closer to the white, we have more confidence that the white (main run) is correct. In this instance, the (red) lines which are the ones we're most interested in, are further north than the white. This suggests that the jet stream will stay north of PA and we need that to be the case to blunt the effect of what would, otherwise, be  another trough. Note too the white circles down over the southeast US and near Bahama/Bermuda part of the Atlantic - that signals that the ridge "may" be trying to reorient into a favorable position for drier (but still a touch humid) weather - less deluge rain, more in the way of pop up showers (not heavy rain showers) for the days after the 20th.    So if we can just hang in there another 5+ days, without too much more (or any) further damage, we may FINALLY try to dry things out in more than meager fashion. I know the folks in the Lehigh Valley and Wyoming Valley, will certainly welcome it (not to mention the soggy but lesser affected regions of Central PA)   

UTSwiinii

UTSwiinii

 

Trough Train Kept a Rollin'

In an old standard of jazz/rhythm, Tiny Bradshaw sang of a train that kept a rollin' (all night long). It comes to mind when I see images such as this one:    The image is of the Pacific basin and, as you can see, it's a veritable traffic jam of troughs - some spawned from tropically based storms, others from "standard" gales. Each of these, obviously, whether separately or ensemble, have to translate to the east and visit the NA continent. The form and fashion in which they do so will have large bearing (Bering?) on what we shall see in the next 10-15 days. In my post from a few days ago, I posited that Shanshan would induce an Eastern trough via response to the Typhoon Rule. That notion is, slowly showing up on the computer weather models. Note (in green) the flow changes from what we have, at present, to a reversal of sorts - trough west, ridge east.  As you know, the ridges bring the warmth/troughs bring cool air aloft. The alteration of the "flow" would bring about a much welcome break - drier warmer air, as opposed to the humid "crud" plaguing the pattern for most of this summer season.    Here's to hoping  the light at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train (wreck). These energies and their travel down the wave train track, will be hard for computers to sort out, so confidence is muted just a wee bit in those solutions. But leaning on OFM (organic forecasting methods) I believe this will work out well for the wet weary among us. 🙂        

UTSwiinii

UTSwiinii

 

The pattern is the pattern, until it's not

Well folks, it's no secret that we've been uber soaked since sometime in early July. With upper level low pressure systems cutting off to our west (pumping southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico region) bumping up against High Pressure in the Atlantic (pumping warm moisture laden air off the ocean, also from the south - southeast, there has been no shortage of moisture, even on dry days (due to high humidity values).  As if, sometimes, the case - the pattern of atmospheric waves and wave breaks can become redundant - taking some equal or greater force to "break" the pattern. This summer has also featured a more prevalent "pattern" of higher heights (High Pressure) residing mainly in the west. This allows troughs to dip into the east. And, from the department of redundancy department, we see this setting up yet again in the weather modeling for the next  week.  This map shows the energy bundles within the jet stream - yellow are lowest areas of pressure (red the deepest within the yellow fields). The green arrows denote the flow - yep, more "yuck"   Note the date projected - next Tuesday, the 14th. So we expect the pattern to remain stuck until that feature "resolves" (fills in and moves along). What might do that, you may ask? We can look well to the west - to the East, as in East Asia.  Here we see Typhoon Shanshan. You have heard me speak of the "Typhoon Rule", many times in the past.      The Typhoon Rule dictates that should a Typhoon recurve (shown in arrows) prior to the Prefecture of Japan, a resulting trough will come to the East within 7 days. Wait, what's that? Another trough? Yep, but this trough seems to be capable of being a bully boy and should be sufficient to dislodge the stubborn Atlantic High, at least for a moderate window of time (more than 2-3 days) - actually, displace it is a better term, so that it shunts south even more. Moreover, the ridge (high pressure) out west, also gets tamped down from the very strong values seen over the past 6- 8 weeks.  So, that around the 18th, we see potential wave "break" - pattern break, if you will. This is signaled by the Bering Sea Rule as we move towards 8/20.  Notice the "L"'s out west, and the H now moving below mid Florida instead of northeast of mid Florida. This small move is important, because it shunts the "flow" from the Gulf (essentially cuts it off) and at the same time also eliminates the Atlantic moisture feed - this is southwest flow which is warm and relatively dry.    So, we'll see if the Organic Forecasting "Rules" can combine to dry us out before we start to eye the Tropical Atlantic and its peak season which is swiftly approaching. 

UTSwiinii

UTSwiinii

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