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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

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About this blog

Let me preface this by saying I love winter.  Not as much as summer, but if you're going to have to deal with cold dark days, you might as well have it be really cold an snowy.  I have also not spent much time evaluating other long range forecasts, other than seeing them from time to time bantered around.  I don't know if any of these ideas are new, rather a compilation of ideas from reading many years of others trying to attempt this.  Focus is on CONUS and mostly temperatures.  This is really a crap shoot, but here it goes.

 

This is how I see the winter shaping up.  The -4 area is really -3 to -4 and the -3 area is -2 to -3. 

1821492045_temperaturedeviationmap.gif.774d8b7dbe66cf509a71321399187c48.gif

And precip, which I find much more difficult to analog... should be close to normal in most areas.  Keep in mind the SW is much drier so its easier to have those percentages.

1849613537_precipitationforecast.PNG.707119129dfd014c7a101a402354bb47.PNG

 

 

 

image.png.c29440487e88f3c6242df8b9a8bd0a8f.png                        

 

                         
                         

Entries in this blog

 

The Blob

Noticing that the Blob is re-appearing.  This patch of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska was predominant in the winter of 13-14 which was a cold and snowy one for the NE.   Also noticing on the gif of the daily anomalies for the last week, it may be dissipating.  ERSL SST's Others have noticed its return as well.   https://www.livescience.com/63873-blob-returns-northern-pacific.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6295433/The-blob-causing-abnormally-warm-weather-ocean-temperatures-Alaska.html http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-son-of-blob-is-back.html   Should note that the ENSO signal for 13-14 was a weak La Nina to neutral, so not comparable to this year's weak Nino.  13-14 was cold in the East and I had 58" of snow 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 Now before you get excited seeing the El nino conditions appearing in 2014, the blob had already spread out along the PAC coast by then.  2014 was also cold in the East and I again got 58"  of snow.  Note, my guesstimate for snow in my backyard for this year is 45-55" and leaning toward the 50-55" range.  So I'm not really sure how much affect the blob has.  It forms due to already existing atmospheric conditions and per linked sources, doesn't control the atmosphere, rather at that latitude, the atmosphere controls it.  If the blob moves in the way it did in 2014-15, then combined with a weak nino, I could end up flipping to a colder forecast.  

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Sunspots

In looking through the long range, some have mentioned sunspot activity as having a strong correlation to winter temps.  Sunspot cycles run in approx 10 years.  We are currently at a low per https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle And as you can see the historical lows were approx. Aug 2009, Oct 1996, June 1986, Jul 1976, Sept 1964 and Dec 1953. Those years look like this: The composite comes out like this: Please note that the scale goes from - 2 to +2.  So I wouldn't say its a strong correlation. If you remove the 1976 and 1953 extremes you get   And just comparing ONI: 09-10 was El Nino >1 96-97 was weak La Nina around .5 86-87 was a 1.3 El Nino 76-77 was a weak El Nino (similar to what I expect...hmmm) .8 and .7 64-65 was weak La Nina -.6 53-54 was a weak El Nino (similar to what I expect....double hmmm) .8 So would I adjust anything?  Maybe a half degree down in the east.        

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

I left one out...

Nice thing about a blog is it can be a work in progress.  I just realized I never ran the analogs for the last Jul-Sep precip. The closest I could find were these...and they aren't really that close. Combined it leads to this precip outcome And these temps

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Forecast maps

The -4 is really supposed to be -3 to -4 and the -3 is supposed to be -2 to -3.  Freakin map took me forever to do in Paint.  Kinda going to look like this.

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Details

I am considering the following characteristics and looking at how similar Jul-Sept periods fared: ONI PDO AMO QBO AO NAO EPO Arctic sea ice (new one I think) Hurricane season (Atlantic) Current temp trend Start with the Enso (La Nina/El Nino)   Current state:    Forecast CPC Forecast CFS So Enso looks like a .5 to 1 El Nino, coming from La Nina.  Not to strong Years that look like current situation moving to a El Nino under 1     Composite looks like this. So the composite of all 7, including those from a recurring Nino and in a cold AMO came up with average east, warm west, and cool central.  Take out the analogs from the 70's and its warm. What this shows is looking at El Nino/La Nina conditions, which aren’t guaranteed either, is volatile.  Some years are super warm, some record cold.  Blended its fairly neutral except in Ohio  and gulf coast where its colder and the west where its warmer.       Looking at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation:  1976+, 1977 -/+, 1979 +, 1994 -/+, 2004 -/+,  2014+, 2006-.   Our current state is negative.    2009 had a weak negative post July as did 2017, 2004, 1989 and 1977       2017                                                                                       2009                   2004                                                                                       1989                        1977                                                                                       Composite                   1977 is the outlier, and if you get rid of that, the Tri-state is close to normal.     Looking at the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation shows that we are still in a warm pattern.  Notice that in the 70s it was cool and the analogs from the 70’s also were cool to cold.     Current values are                   Jan         Feb        Mar        Apr         May       Jun         Jul           Aug        Sep        Oct         Nov        Dec    2016    0.231    0.155    0.188    0.177    0.344    0.409    0.432    0.456    0.458    0.380    0.390    0.335    2017    0.225    0.227    0.167    0.283    0.314    0.308    0.302    0.310    0.350    0.433    0.352    0.364    2018    0.173    0.062    0.132    0.063   -0.001   -0.011    0.017    0.112  -99.990  -99.990  -99.990  -99.990   This is something to remember when looking at years 1960 to 2000.      QBO – trending positive.  This is the wind direction and speed at 30mb at the equator.  Negative values are easterlies, positive westerlies.       2016    9.34    6.77    3.16    0.64    2.37    3.86    6.25   10.07   10.48   12.83   14.16   15.09   2017   14.92   14.78   14.35   13.88    8.01   -3.18  -10.48  -14.42  -15.28  -16.79  -17.20  -18.12   2018  -19.02  -19.37  -19.77  -21.41  -24.23  -28.45  -29.10  -20.41   -9.91 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00       Here are the years with positive QBO – year starting January   2017, 2016, 2011, 2009, 2007, 2002, 1999, 2000,1995,1993,1991         1993 is the only really cold year with a +QBO.  That year the ONI was neutral+.    Of the warm years, 2017 was neutral -, 2016 was hyper el nino, 2002 was neutral, 2000 was mod to strong La Nina   2001-2002  and 1994-1995 have the most similar to now.   2001  -15.69  -15.53  -15.99  -17.73  -20.99  -23.31  -24.45  -21.67  -14.29  -10.81   -3.88    1.48   2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50   And 94-95   1994   -7.64   -9.84  -11.29  -14.71  -18.03  -23.09  -28.65  -27.02  -19.07  -10.29   -0.30    5.93   1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57       And the results are this   Arctic Oscillation is unusually positive since April.   So I unfortunately went back and found  years with a similar string of positive summers.  1989, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2013, 2016 Now of those years, the only 1994-95 was El Nino (+1.1 in DJF)  and 2000-2001 was a mod La Nina (-.7).  The rest were neutral. If we're thinking weak to mod El Nino, then it seems I just wasted a bunch of time since we haven't had a stretch of AO's like this and had a weak to mod El Nino in the last 30 years.     If you take out the La Nina year, since that looks the least likely...         NAO   NAO has been monthy positive since really last December except for March.  So from April on its been positive 2018   1.44   1.58  -0.93   1.24   2.12   1.09   1.39   1.97   1.67     Closest I have for that many months positive is   2013   0.35  -0.45  -1.61   0.69   0.57   0.52   0.67   0.97   0.24  -1.28   0.90   0.95   1989   1.17   2.00   1.85   0.28   1.38  -0.27   0.97   0.01   2.05  -0.03   0.16  -1.15   1979  -1.38  -0.67   0.78  -1.71  -1.03   1.60   0.83   0.96   1.01  -0.30   0.53   1.00   Which looks like this combined     Eastern Pacific Oscillation   Current state is trending negative last three months, but over -1                   J      Feb    Mar   Apr     May    Jun     Jul     Aug     Sep    Oct     Nov    2018   0.66  0.23   0.30  -0.18  -0.98   0.05  -0.16  -0.78  -0.83 –       2016  -0.35   0.23   0.24   1.47   0.14   1.26  -0.36  -0.42  -1.41  -0.84  -1.43 -99.90   2017   0.39   0.21  -1.04   1.04  -0.72   0.50   0.00  -1.65  -0.46  -0.58   0.41 -99.90   2010  -0.58  -0.51  -1.63  -1.21  -0.15   1.50  -0.22  -1.48  -0.34  -0.58   0.27 -99.90   2007  -1.14   0.93  -1.27  -0.19  -0.67   0.00   0.49  -0.67  -1.29  -1.96   0.68 -99.90   1998   0.62  -0.33   1.31  -0.49  -1.36   0.23   0.12  -1.67  -0.52  -1.27  -0.52 -99.90       These EPO years are warm 98, 07, 16, neutral 17 and cold 10.  Barely enough consistency to be a signal which turns out like this.     Arctic Sea Ice   2018 had the 3rd least sea ice, with all years similar since 2007     A closer look shows some comparisons to where we are as of the second week of October.     Taking these years, the composite looks like   Hurricane seasons similar to 2018 (14-17 cyclones)   1980   15   1984   17   1987  14   1989  15   1990  16   1998  14   1999  16   2001  17   2002  14   2007   17   2008  17   2013  15   2016  16   Temperature trend Jul - Sep       Locally, temperatures were above normal most days in the summer, even through the first half of October.  The temperature map of the country makes it look like the west and east were under mean ridges and the upper midwest was under the mean trough.  In looking at past 30 years of summer temperature schemes, very few resembled this year. A few years show up where there is a dip in temps in the middle of the country,  though some are further west.     These years resulted in a winter looking like this.   Finally, I went through and picked the years that showed up the most in these characteristics.  Years most mentioned (3 or more)  in these analogs are: 77,89,07,94,01,07,13,16,17. 2016 mentioned 6x, 1989 and 2007 mentioned 4x and the others 3x.   3 or more 4 or more So in considering all of the above, this is how I see the winter shaping up.  The -4 area is really -3 to -4 and the -3 area is -2 to -3.  And precip, which I find much more difficult to analog... should be close to normal in most areas.  Keep in mind the SW is much drier so its easier to have those percentages.

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Summary of winter composites

Summary of composites ONI moving neg to pos under 1   ONI without prior condition consideration     PDO (including 1977 outlier)     QBO positive QBO closest analogs Arctic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation without the La Nina year       NAO   EPO Sea Ice     Hurricanes     Current trends for temperatures Composite of years that showed up 3x or more in analogs Composite of years that showed up 4x or more

StretchCT

StretchCT

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