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About this blog

Let me preface this by saying I love winter.  Not as much as summer, but if you're going to have to deal with cold dark days, you might as well have it be really cold an snowy.  I have also not spent much time evaluating other long range forecasts, other than seeing them from time to time bantered around.  I don't know if any of these ideas are new, rather a compilation of ideas from reading many years of others trying to attempt this.  Focus is on CONUS and mostly temperatures.  This is really a crap shoot, but here it goes.

 

This is how I see the winter shaping up.  The -4 area is really -3 to -4 and the -3 area is -2 to -3. 

1821492045_temperaturedeviationmap.gif.774d8b7dbe66cf509a71321399187c48.gif

And precip, which I find much more difficult to analog... should be close to normal in most areas.  Keep in mind the SW is much drier so its easier to have those percentages.

1849613537_precipitationforecast.PNG.707119129dfd014c7a101a402354bb47.PNG

 

 

 

image.png.c29440487e88f3c6242df8b9a8bd0a8f.png                        

 

                         
                         

Entries in this blog

 

The Blob

Noticing that the Blob is re-appearing.  This patch of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska was predominant in the winter of 13-14 which was a cold and snowy one for the NE.   Also noticing on the gif of the daily anomalies for the last week, it may be dissipating.  ERSL SST's Others have noticed its return as well.   https://www.livescience.com/63873-blob-returns-northern-pacific.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6295433/The-blob-causing-abnorm

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Sunspots

In looking through the long range, some have mentioned sunspot activity as having a strong correlation to winter temps.  Sunspot cycles run in approx 10 years.  We are currently at a low per https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle And as you can see the historical lows were approx. Aug 2009, Oct 1996, June 1986, Jul 1976, Sept 1964 and Dec 1953. Those years look like this: The composite comes out like this: Please note that the scale goes from - 2

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

I left one out...

Nice thing about a blog is it can be a work in progress.  I just realized I never ran the analogs for the last Jul-Sep precip. The closest I could find were these...and they aren't really that close. Combined it leads to this precip outcome And these temps

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Forecast maps

The -4 is really supposed to be -3 to -4 and the -3 is supposed to be -2 to -3.  Freakin map took me forever to do in Paint.  Kinda going to look like this.

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Details

I am considering the following characteristics and looking at how similar Jul-Sept periods fared: ONI PDO AMO QBO AO NAO EPO Arctic sea ice (new one I think) Hurricane season (Atlantic) Current temp trend Start with the Enso (La Nina/El Nino)   Current state:    Forecast CPC Forecast CFS So Enso looks like a .5 to 1 El Nino, coming from La Nina.  Not to strong Years that look

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

Summary of winter composites

Summary of composites ONI moving neg to pos under 1   ONI without prior condition consideration     PDO (including 1977 outlier)     QBO positive QBO closest analogs Arctic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation without the La Nina year       NAO   EPO Sea Ice     Hurricanes

StretchCT

StretchCT

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