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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

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About this blog

My ramblings on the OFM (Organic Forecasting Method).  How I learned to use it and how it shaped my understanding of forecasting in the long range with the help of ensembles.  

On occasion I will try to add some info that helped me through the years.  It will include different sites and methods along with my lunacy. 😈

Enjoy 

...and as always my inbox is always open for questions, criticism or just to say heyo 

Entries in this blog

 

Little Japanese Snowman index

If anyone is familiar with the LJS index they would be keenly looking upon Japan and waiting for snow to fall.  Well it looks to be occurring in or around the 20th.  The LJS index ignores all heights and troughs and ridges and strictly goes on precipitation type on or very near Aomori, Japan (a rough correlate to the 40 degree north US coast). The LJS also utilizes a short lag correlate of only 6-8 days.   The index was created proprietarily over the years by following the east Asia rule.  It’s been observed that when precipitation is forecasted as snow over Aomori that often times the US correlate also would be forecasted snow.  The proprietary calculations allow the index to not only predict a date of snowfall but also adjust accordingly for possible heavier snow and increasingly hazardous conditions.  Generally an index of +3.0 or higher means that snowfall can be expected over eastern PA and nearby regions. An index of +6.0 or higher means that possible snowfall over a good portion of PA and NJ is possible. Ultimately an index of +10.0 or higher means a multi-region wide multi day storm is possible. This rating is only reserved for the most detrimental snowstorms in central Japan. I will be calculating the LJS index this year approximately 8-10days in advance of a correlative snowfall date. Currently modeling shows the first + index rating for the US occurring around the 26-28th of November.  However, modeling in east Asia is extremely volatile so index calculations are usually never made until 2 days prior to a Japanese snowfall.  Therefore even though modeling shows snow in Japan on a certain date the index will not be tripped until JMA forecasts are issued.  Only at that time can the LJS index be truly calculated.  Cheers, take care and do stay tuned fir LJS index updates! -Poc

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

 

Gobble Gobble storm signal update

So I did post much of this in the fall thread but I've decided to combine it all here here are the current loops of the bsr signal from the 21-23 and a unique frame depicting some critical components... (I will update gifs when the 23rd overlay is available) The last picture is from the 21st valid 0z I circled three things: An upper level low pressure stretching from the north Gulf of Mexico to the coastal Gulf Stream.  A upper level high pressure just to the North of Vermont, and finally another upper level low in a position near 50/50 (50 degrees latitude/longitude).  Each ingredient when combined can detail a track of a surface lp up the leeward side of the apps until it slows from a buckled flow  downstream due to the "50/50 low" and the the High Pressure it pumps into a near Rex block look. This allows the storms ULL to catch up with the surface low and transfer somewhere on coast between Delmarva and CT. Now this won't be a 1:1 correlation but we can use it to signal a period and give us clues as to the pattern at hand. East Asia is still a little far out to apply a correlate there(modeling for Japan is very volatile and anything over 5 days out can have major swings), however models have been tinkering with storms around the 9-10th and the 16-17th.  Lagtime for storms that hit Japan are usually between 6-10 days. I usually prefer a 6-8 correlation when I apply it. Now to touch on something I've been monitoring.  The Southern oscillation index is an old school tool that was mainly used to monitor enso conditions in the equatorial pacific.  But recently many practitioners of the the organic forecasting method have surmised that a large anomalous drop of lets say 20pts or greater in a 3-7 day span will correlate to east coast storminess 2-3 weeks later.   Well seeing the signal for the 22nd on the bsr made me watch the latest soi rise closely.  And just on cue it has plummeted from over 15 to .25 in three days.  I'm gonna guess it will bottom out maybe Monday.  Using my caveman correlation of the mean daily drop calculation weighted to the date range in which it occurred has it just about in sync for the 22nd.  See graph below  Lastly here are some loops of the gobble gobble signal storm that's currently riding the spine of the aleutians... Quite impressive! If I can find time this weekend maybe I'll talk a bit about a storm that may be occurring around the 13-15th... there is some ofm noise jumping out but clearly the turkey day signal is what's the most interesting right now in the world of long range organic pattern signaling. 🙂 Cheers!

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

 

Turkey day/ gobble gobble storm on its way?

So I mentioned yesterday I was starting to get an inkling of a long range storm coming around the 25th.   Well after watching some modeled rrwt point correlated areas like the Bering sea and east Asia I believe the date may be more like the 22-23rd that has caught my eye. Now organic forecasting works best in truly anomalous scenarios and currently the look in the Bering sea has a 504dam closed ULL forecasted to ride the east coast into a possible Rex block downstream with a slightly +pna signal see below  12z gif is up top with a height anomaly look from 12zgfs next and the recent 18z trend of evening deepening the closed low a bit further here are the 48hr wpc forecasts  They are impressive and notice how the surface lp tracks just to the South along the aleutians.... this predicted path would correlate to a miller A type storm originating in or near the Gulf of Mexico. Remember the Bering sea rrwt point correlation is ~19days till correlation to the Central/Eastern US As for the EAR we are still in the hr300+ range and forecasts in east Asia are incredibly volatile even in the short range.  But here is a loop from 18z today showing an 8 day lag to a system that would correlate here on the 22-23rd   The soi also spiked yesterday just above +15 daily, it had around a 4pt drop today and I will continue to watch and see if it can fall over 20pts in a 5-7 day period.  At that point I like to look just under three weeks out from the weighted avg drop period. Graphic below. So for now I'll keep an eye out for the coming period of the 8-9th for possible development (wet period in the northeast for sure) and also a period that a thread was started for... 12-15th. the 12-15 period looks like a late bloomer on a boundary that could bring a storm from the cape islands into Maine.  I posted a little in thread about the organic signals available and if time warrants maybe I'll expand tomorrow a little more. But for now I'm fixated on the turkey day signal as it's blinking pretty steadily in my head. Cheers all!!  Please feel free to comment or post questions.  I don't mind PMs either.  Howe we I can help....   PS- I'd be remiss without mentioning one of our own, @jdrenken, for seeding my interest into rossby and kelvins waves way back in the day.  Without his knowledge and tutelage, I would never had the chance into becoming the enthusiast I am the today.  Long range signaling and forecasting is one of my favorite hobbys, and I do hope that some of my posts and entries helps someone find that same interest I once did.  

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

 

A new season approaches

So I'm hoping to take some of my ramblings and put them into blog form so anyone who is interested with ofm can see what goes through my gears when looking for signals.  Currently Nov8-9th looks to be a signal and I'm starting to feel a buzz for around Nov 25-26th.  A true shot of colder air looks to be coming around mid month into the end of Nov and possibly first week of Dec. There also may be a few smaller signals in between the 8th and 26th that may only turn out to be frontal passages here on the East coast.  Stay tuned and hopefully tonight I can put together an entry with some coherent ramblings 🙂 Cheers

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

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