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About this blog

My ramblings on the OFM (Organic Forecasting Method).  How I learned to use it and how it shaped my understanding of forecasting in the long range with the help of ensembles.  

On occasion I will try to add some info that helped me through the years.  It will include different sites and methods along with my lunacy. 😈

Enjoy 

...and as always my inbox is always open for questions, criticism or just to say heyo 

Entries in this blog

 

Little Japanese Snowman index

If anyone is familiar with the LJS index they would be keenly looking upon Japan and waiting for snow to fall.  Well it looks to be occurring in or around the 20th.  The LJS index ignores all heights and troughs and ridges and strictly goes on precipitation type on or very near Aomori, Japan (a rough correlate to the 40 degree north US coast). The LJS also utilizes a short lag correlate of only 6-8 days.   The index was created proprietarily over the years by following the ea

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

 

Gobble Gobble storm signal update

So I did post much of this in the fall thread but I've decided to combine it all here here are the current loops of the bsr signal from the 21-23 and a unique frame depicting some critical components... (I will update gifs when the 23rd overlay is available) The last picture is from the 21st valid 0z I circled three things: An upper level low pressure stretching from the north Gulf of Mexico to the coastal Gulf Stream.  A upper level high pressure just to the North

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

 

Turkey day/ gobble gobble storm on its way?

So I mentioned yesterday I was starting to get an inkling of a long range storm coming around the 25th.   Well after watching some modeled rrwt point correlated areas like the Bering sea and east Asia I believe the date may be more like the 22-23rd that has caught my eye. Now organic forecasting works best in truly anomalous scenarios and currently the look in the Bering sea has a 504dam closed ULL forecasted to ride the east coast into a possible Rex block downstream with a slightly +

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

 

A new season approaches

So I'm hoping to take some of my ramblings and put them into blog form so anyone who is interested with ofm can see what goes through my gears when looking for signals.  Currently Nov8-9th looks to be a signal and I'm starting to feel a buzz for around Nov 25-26th.  A true shot of colder air looks to be coming around mid month into the end of Nov and possibly first week of Dec. There also may be a few smaller signals in between the 8th and 26th that may only turn out to be frontal passages

Poconosnow

Poconosnow

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