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Bering Sea Rule Verification

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OSNW3

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For the Bering Sea Rule (Renken et al.) fans out there, I am slowly automating verification results. Not sure what metrics to correlate or at what time frequency, but it is a start. Attached is an example of a 5-day H5 anomaly for 6/2-6. 

DfVf3DLUYAAacLX.jpg

A popular way to visualize the Bering Sea Rule is to utilize the maps @crankywxguy generates (http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/bsr.php) which showcases daily surface and 500MB. I may just run with those metrics for the time being and concentrate on the "pattern" scoring 5-day anomalies.

For those interested in the verification method; the verification data are generated from ESRL NetCDF files utilizing the scorr function within GrADS. A snippet of the GrADS script is below. Beware, my GrADS scripting is amatuer at best. Enjoy!

function script(args)
myVarA=subwrd(args,1)
myVarB=subwrd(args,2)
myVarC=subwrd(args,3)
myVarD=subwrd(args,4)

'reinit'
rc = gsfallow("on")
nrows=2
ncols=1
args=nrows%' '%ncols
'sdfopen Z:\VMSharedFolder\Projects\Verification\esrl-ncdeflect\'myVarC 
'set mproj latlon'
panels(args)

p=1
_vpg.1
'set parea 1 9.8 1 7.5'
'set t 1'
'set grads off'
'set gxout shaded'
'set rgb 16 0 0 255'
'set rgb 17 55 55 255'
'set rgb 18 110 110 255'
'set rgb 19 165 165 255'
'set rgb 20 220 220 255'
'set rgb 21 255 220 220'
'set rgb 22 255 165 165'
'set rgb 23 255 110 110'
'set rgb 24 255 55 55'
'set rgb 25 255 0 0'
'set rgb 26 255 250 250'
'set rgb 27 125 125 125'
'set clevs -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 20 40 60 80 100'
'set ccols 16 17 18 19 20 27 21 22 23 24 25'
'set lon 140 210'
'set lat 39 65'
'set frame off'
'set mpdraw on'
'set gxout shaded'
'set csmooth on'
'd hgt1'
'd scorr(hgt1,hgt2,lon=0,lon=75,lat=57.5,lat=90)'
myVar=result
'run cbarc.gs'
'draw string 1.6 .35 Bering Sea Rule Intialized: 'myVarB
'draw string 5.8 .35 Bering Sea Rule Forecast Dates: 'myVarA
'draw string 2.8 4.12 500mb GPH (m) Anomaly Spatial Correlation (Bering Sea to CONUS Teleconnection)'
'draw title 'myVar

p=2
_vpg.2
'set parea 1 9.8 1 7.5'
'set t 1'
'set grads on'
'set gxout shaded'
'set rgb 16 0 0 255'
'set rgb 17 55 55 255'
'set rgb 18 110 110 255'
'set rgb 19 165 165 255'
'set rgb 20 220 220 255'
'set rgb 21 255 220 220'
'set rgb 22 255 165 165'
'set rgb 23 255 110 110'
'set rgb 24 255 55 55'
'set rgb 25 255 0 0'
'set rgb 26 255 250 250'
'set rgb 27 125 125 125'
'set clevs -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 20 40 60 80 100'
'set ccols 16 17 18 19 20 27 21 22 23 24 25'
'set lon 232.5 302.5'
'set lat 24.5 50'
'set frame off'
'set mpdraw on'
'set gxout shaded'
'set csmooth on'
'd hgt2'
'draw string 3.9 .35 CONUS Observed Dates: 'myVarA
'draw string 0.05 .27 @OSNW3'

'set vpage off'
'printim Z:\VMSharedFolder\Projects\Verification\result-images\'myVarD
'set gxout print'
'set prnopts %6.2f'
write('bsr-hgt.txt', myVarB' 'myVar, append)
;

Also, there is some pre-GrADS NetCDF magic to line up the two domains for use with the scorr function. That is why the scorr domain has odd coordinates. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thank you for reading.

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The Bering Sea Rule is a pattern recognition tool. A negative spatial correlation over the entire domain for a 5 day period can be forced verified into perfection given the +/- 2 to 3 days and hundreds of miles of wiggle room.

bsr-verification-gph-20180728-20180801-obs-20180816-20180820.png.ac98353e16365b7c0123e072e020abf5.png

(The red squares connected by a single red line in the image above are regions for Shemya Island (52°N and 174°W) and Springfield, MO (37°N, 93°W) that generate the center of the spatial domain)

dwm500_test_20180816.thumb.png.794aa30209fa95f635c1c9207b88516b.png

Are 0s and 1s able to generate a true verification for this pattern recognition tool? Or are we left with one persons interpretation? As @crankywxguy stated in a blog (scroll to bottom), the negativity that comes with the teleconnection is motivation for us to continue researching. Potentially eliminating the "misuse or jealousy" aspect and aiding in the challenge of applying it properly for everyone.

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On 8/24/2018 at 11:01 AM, OSNW3 said:

The Bering Sea Rule is a pattern recognition tool. A negative spatial correlation over the entire domain for a 5 day period can be forced verified into perfection given the +/- 2 to 3 days and hundreds of miles of wiggle room.

bsr-verification-gph-20180728-20180801-obs-20180816-20180820.png.ac98353e16365b7c0123e072e020abf5.png

(The red squares connected by a single red line in the image above are regions for Shemya Island (52°N and 174°W) and Springfield, MO (37°N, 93°W) that generate the center of the spatial domain)

dwm500_test_20180816.thumb.png.794aa30209fa95f635c1c9207b88516b.png

Are 0s and 1s able to generate a true verification for this pattern recognition tool? Or are we left with one persons interpretation? As @crankywxguy stated in a blog (scroll to bottom), the negativity that comes with the teleconnection is motivation for us to continue researching. Potentially eliminating the "misuse or jealousy" aspect and aiding in the challenge of applying it properly for everyone.

The Bering Sea and East Asia rules have struggled recently teleconnecting the 5-day pattern for the CONUS. Forced verifications of the rules are the unavoidable pitfall.

DneL_3_UwAEgxVA.jpg

DneMApZU4AA2zEC.jpg

 

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I have integrated the corresponding 610d and the 1620d RRWT CONUS verification to the BSR and EAR verification page. The ebb and flow shall be interesting to watch.

DpeaLBWV4AAa5my.jpg

http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html  (Verification)

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