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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

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StretchCT

139

I am considering the following characteristics and looking at how similar Jul-Sept periods fared:

  • ONI
  • PDO
  • AMO
  • QBO
  • AO
  • NAO
  • EPO
  • Arctic sea ice (new one I think)
  • Hurricane season (Atlantic)
  • Current temp trend

Start with the Enso (La Nina/El Nino)

 

Current state:  image.png.a5c5b487f3cb0b77e844c5a5b7c262f4.png

 

Forecast CPC

image.png.b4326b44c32b680eba0b58ff5bcc46b4.png

Forecast CFS

image.png.c245dccdba782017aaa49725725a7a7d.png

So Enso looks like a .5 to 1 El Nino, coming from La Nina.  Not to strong

Years that look like current situation moving to a El Nino under 1

 

 

image.png.a2dac2ab9a3eeaa52e3dfe75f216217a.png

image.png.bd62c7f60f97737c386f0ababe38246a.png

Composite looks like this.image.png.d0308c6064958eabe6563293a296c36b.png

image.png.96e064620364be7bd6841a5bcbef5fdc.png

So the composite of all 7, including those from a recurring Nino and in a cold AMO came up with average east, warm west, and cool central.  Take out the analogs from the 70's and its warm.

What this shows is looking at El Nino/La Nina conditions, which aren’t guaranteed either, is volatile.  Some years are super warm, some record cold.  Blended its fairly neutral except in Ohio  and gulf coast where its colder and the west where its warmer.

 

 

 

Looking at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation:  1976+, 1977 -/+, 1979 +, 1994 -/+, 2004 -/+,  2014+, 2006-.

 

Our current state is negative. 

 

image.png.831dedef9fb35c9e44fb12a789c9edb6.png

2009 had a weak negative post July as did 2017, 2004, 1989 and 1977

 

 

 

2017                                                                                       2009

 

image.png.25228158e5669d97434738c4513c5ed8.png          image.png.846ab221f1cd68e20fb56b5aa33e5dfd.png

 

 

 

2004                                                                                       1989

 

image.png.bac7caca550e0bab2a21b2984df3f2a9.png               image.png.25233d5ae3ad1bc246c85f7d0c3bf232.png

 

 

 

1977                                                                                       Composite

 

image.png.5240f561681cfaedd558f583c4a2f77c.png          image.png.1c0ad29f5119bc5fda123e3ab77fd939.png

 

 

 

1977 is the outlier, and if you get rid of that, the Tri-state is close to normal.

 

 

Looking at the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation shows that we are still in a warm pattern.  Notice that in the 70s it was cool and the analogs from the 70’s also were cool to cold.

 

 

image.png.72a9efde401788f74a760f45fcd0cb40.png

Current values are

 

                Jan         Feb        Mar        Apr         May       Jun         Jul           Aug        Sep        Oct         Nov        Dec

 

 2016    0.231    0.155    0.188    0.177    0.344    0.409    0.432    0.456    0.458    0.380    0.390    0.335

 

 2017    0.225    0.227    0.167    0.283    0.314    0.308    0.302    0.310    0.350    0.433    0.352    0.364

 

 2018    0.173    0.062    0.132    0.063   -0.001   -0.011    0.017    0.112  -99.990  -99.990  -99.990  -99.990

 

This is something to remember when looking at years 1960 to 2000. 

 

 

QBO – trending positive.  This is the wind direction and speed at 30mb at the equator.  Negative values are easterlies, positive westerlies.

 

 

 

2016    9.34    6.77    3.16    0.64    2.37    3.86    6.25   10.07   10.48   12.83   14.16   15.09

 

2017   14.92   14.78   14.35   13.88    8.01   -3.18  -10.48  -14.42  -15.28  -16.79  -17.20  -18.12

 

2018  -19.02  -19.37  -19.77  -21.41  -24.23  -28.45  -29.10  -20.41   -9.91 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

 

 

 

Here are the years with positive QBO – year starting January

 

2017, 2016, 2011, 2009, 2007, 2002, 1999, 2000,1995,1993,1991

 

 

image.png.831244a08b43e93aa4fa88f1630940cf.png    image.png.856257d43b97768cb75581366d7812cc.png

1993 is the only really cold year with a +QBO.  That year the ONI was neutral+. 

 

Of the warm years, 2017 was neutral -, 2016 was hyper el nino, 2002 was neutral, 2000 was mod to strong La Nina

 

2001-2002  and 1994-1995 have the most similar to now.

 

2001  -15.69  -15.53  -15.99  -17.73  -20.99  -23.31  -24.45  -21.67  -14.29  -10.81   -3.88    1.48

 

2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50

 

And 94-95

 

1994   -7.64   -9.84  -11.29  -14.71  -18.03  -23.09  -28.65  -27.02  -19.07  -10.29   -0.30    5.93

 

1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57

 

 

 

And the results are this

 

image.png.9a7d9518989e41b8b550a0c87c89042e.png

Arctic Oscillation is unusually positive since April.

 

image.png.e36c8b48ecf4742f73de26aca9a322ad.pngimage.png.38196d8fb47a38dc0e63b2bf76b3e83b.png

So I unfortunately went back and found  years with a similar string of positive summers.  1989, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2013, 2016

image.png.133e9ac797fbc962f66167f3c50061c1.png

Now of those years, the only 1994-95 was El Nino (+1.1 in DJF)  and 2000-2001 was a mod La Nina (-.7).  The rest were neutral. If we're thinking weak to mod El Nino, then it seems I just wasted a bunch of time since we haven't had a stretch of AO's like this and had a weak to mod El Nino in the last 30 years.  

 

If you take out the La Nina year, since that looks the least likely...

 

image.png.812e440b94f8cf3c56c39643f42975d7.png

 

 

 

NAO

 

NAO has been monthy positive since really last December except for March.  So from April on its been positive 2018   1.44   1.58  -0.93   1.24   2.12   1.09   1.39   1.97   1.67

 

 

image.png.f86545aa132438ca8471ba068b25a9e4.png

Closest I have for that many months positive is

 

2013   0.35  -0.45  -1.61   0.69   0.57   0.52   0.67   0.97   0.24  -1.28   0.90   0.95

 

1989   1.17   2.00   1.85   0.28   1.38  -0.27   0.97   0.01   2.05  -0.03   0.16  -1.15

 

1979  -1.38  -0.67   0.78  -1.71  -1.03   1.60   0.83   0.96   1.01  -0.30   0.53   1.00

 

Which looks like this combined

image.png.6d944eeca58f3dbe52e18a4e16d042b4.png

 

 

Eastern Pacific Oscillation

 

Current state is trending negative last three months, but over -1

 

                J      Feb    Mar   Apr     May    Jun     Jul     Aug     Sep    Oct     Nov 

 

2018   0.66  0.23   0.30  -0.18  -0.98   0.05  -0.16  -0.78  -0.83 –

 

 

 

2016  -0.35   0.23   0.24   1.47   0.14   1.26  -0.36  -0.42  -1.41  -0.84  -1.43 -99.90

 

2017   0.39   0.21  -1.04   1.04  -0.72   0.50   0.00  -1.65  -0.46  -0.58   0.41 -99.90

 

2010  -0.58  -0.51  -1.63  -1.21  -0.15   1.50  -0.22  -1.48  -0.34  -0.58   0.27 -99.90

 

2007  -1.14   0.93  -1.27  -0.19  -0.67   0.00   0.49  -0.67  -1.29  -1.96   0.68 -99.90

 

1998   0.62  -0.33   1.31  -0.49  -1.36   0.23   0.12  -1.67  -0.52  -1.27  -0.52 -99.90

 

 

 

These EPO years are warm 98, 07, 16, neutral 17 and cold 10.  Barely enough consistency to be a signal which turns out like this.

 

 

image.png.1c1088f1e1ab4badcab7282655d27a92.png

Arctic Sea Ice

 

2018 had the 3rd least sea ice, with all years similar since 2007

image.png.b87c344671869b5d6f178c0f5e6d8cf3.png

 

 

A closer look shows some comparisons to where we are as of the second week of October.

image.png.7923b095fff8370f2159015d4dd48e5a.png

 

 

Taking these years, the composite looks like

image.png.674fb2fb8ffd1302c7801b2cf7cd7bfb.png

 

Hurricane seasons similar to 2018 (14-17 cyclones)

 

1980   15

 

1984   17

 

1987  14

 

1989  15

 

1990  16

 

1998  14

 

1999  16

 

2001  17

 

2002  14

 

2007   17

 

2008  17

 

2013  15

 

2016  16

 

image.png.ede0e78cae9f056493dcde24f79f815a.png

Temperature trend Jul - Sep

 

 

 

Locally, temperatures were above normal most days in the summer, even through the first half of October.  The temperature map of the country makes it look like the west and east were under mean ridges and the upper midwest was under the mean trough.  In looking at past 30 years of summer temperature schemes, very few resembled this year. A few years show up where there is a dip in temps in the middle of the country,  though some are further west.

 

 

image.png.bc43beabd30abb744c57ce65da7da02b.pngimage.png.56d6d3de6ee5668338d35b9ee8a1b672.pngimage.png.eb5c7c1a3317500f81f3ec87da08aaf4.pngimage.png.a570cb3712aacef44a4a3fec2d2de770.png

These years resulted in a winter looking like this.

image.png.36f6d27265511075dfd7a3a6c044fe1f.png

 

Finally, I went through and picked the years that showed up the most in these characteristics. 

Years most mentioned (3 or more)  in these analogs are: 77,89,07,94,01,07,13,16,17. 2016 mentioned 6x, 1989 and 2007 mentioned 4x and the others 3x.

 

3 or more

image.png.33258081ff60aa89c568e976924409c5.png

4 or more

image.png.c525f8c0734ed7c94ba3ac3aaac762ab.png

So in considering all of the above, this is how I see the winter shaping up.  The -4 area is really -3 to -4 and the -3 area is -2 to -3. 

1821492045_temperaturedeviationmap.gif.774d8b7dbe66cf509a71321399187c48.gif

And precip, which I find much more difficult to analog... should be close to normal in most areas.  Keep in mind the SW is much drier so its easier to have those percentages.

1849613537_precipitationforecast.PNG.707119129dfd014c7a101a402354bb47.PNG

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This guy, always with the bad news. Do you have any color markers except red and orange. geeze.

 

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The QBO for November is positive - so that is happening

2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 -24.23 -28.45 -29.10 -20.41  -9.91  -2.79   3.36-999.99

ONI now has one trimonth in Nino territory - so that is happening

2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7

PDO  - warmer water pushed up against the US - sign of positive PDO still - actual values are in temporary lockdown due to government shutdown

 pac_anom.gif

Arctic Oscillation has had one solid dip into negative territory.

ao.sprd2.gif

Sunspot activity has been none for past 12 days

image.png.08885d79e6e80a42970dd7c4bc367b50.pngimage.png.08885d79e6e80a42970dd7c4bc367b50.png

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