In looking through the long range, some have mentioned sunspot activity as having a strong correlation to winter temps. Sunspot cycles run in approx 10 years. We are currently at a low per https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle
And as you can see the historical lows were approx. Aug 2009, Oct 1996, June 1986, Jul 1976, Sept 1964 and Dec 1953.
Those years look like this:
The composite comes out like this: Please note that the scale goes from - 2 to +2. So I wouldn't say its a strong correlation.
If you remove the 1976 and 1953 extremes you get
And just comparing ONI:
09-10 was El Nino >1
96-97 was weak La Nina around .5
86-87 was a 1.3 El Nino
76-77 was a weak El Nino (similar to what I expect...hmmm) .8 and .7
64-65 was weak La Nina -.6
53-54 was a weak El Nino (similar to what I expect....double hmmm) .8
So would I adjust anything? Maybe a half degree down in the east.