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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

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Sunspots

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StretchCT

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In looking through the long range, some have mentioned sunspot activity as having a strong correlation to winter temps.  Sunspot cycles run in approx 10 years.  We are currently at a low per https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle

215973415_sunspotrecent.PNG.1fd219be2c9f6fa1cd87d2c35db7844e.PNG

And as you can see the historical lows were approx. Aug 2009, Oct 1996, June 1986, Jul 1976, Sept 1964 and Dec 1953.

Those years look like this:

1287664255_sunspot53.png.30cac207e86705c4931a239ef5211355.png1584915598_sunspot64.png.e698436a19c697e0c0e28a741e360b83.png457370889_sunspot76.png.d30d1c2dbe1b302e49ea7dcd0c1cec8c.png2054279671_sunspot86.png.8cce6442a456d29b55875038469d813e.png566079618_sunspot96.png.0e8671e708548d0f767cf0fcb4098252.png2009.png.3001cef0869860fcd157476f8810168f.png

The composite comes out like this: Please note that the scale goes from - 2 to +2.  So I wouldn't say its a strong correlation.

1134311916_sunspotcomposite.png.e5fa0a171ab46729f42bdb61c7c449ea.png

If you remove the 1976 and 1953 extremes you get

image.png.676a4ebc9926b4ea6cbe58e0c516f43d.png

 

And just comparing ONI:

09-10 was El Nino >1

96-97 was weak La Nina around .5

86-87 was a 1.3 El Nino

76-77 was a weak El Nino (similar to what I expect...hmmm) .8 and .7

64-65 was weak La Nina -.6

53-54 was a weak El Nino (similar to what I expect....double hmmm) .8

So would I adjust anything?  Maybe a half degree down in the east.

 

 

 

 

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And just like that, @StretchCT to the rescue with some good news. You found the blue and green markers, huh?

All kidding aside, I don't understand too much about the impact of sunspots or low solar other than it is supposed to make it colder. I understand it in a general way. so the extremely low values this year give me an inkling this may be a cold and/or snowy year. I'm starting to think we might just see that -nao after all. No evidence to back it up, just a hunch.

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I find it interesting that it’s never below average west of the Rockies during any of those solar minimums. Randomness or bet the house on another warm winter out there??

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8 hours ago, Hiramite said:

I find it interesting that it’s never below average west of the Rockies during any of those solar minimums. Randomness or bet the house on another warm winter out there??

I don't know if I would bet the house but I would definitely be hedging in that direction. My 2 cents.  

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