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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

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  1. Past hour
  2. Hiramite

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    This site is interesting. https://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter Description from/of the site.... The charts below compare seasonal snowfall totals and winter (Dec-Feb) temperatures with various phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle.
  3. Phased Vort

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm Possibility

    06 FV3 GFS has the southern stream low a clipper phase and develop closer to the coastal plain. It tracks from eastern VA to NW NJ and then to just north of Maine. As a result, most of NY state stays on the colder side of the storm and wind driven snow.
  4. It's been very wet in northeast Georgia since mid-October. Hurricane Michael seemed to bring a major pattern change with it, ending the persistent heat that dominated September and early October. Including Hurricane Michael, Athens has received 17.86" of rain since the pattern changed: 4.20" in October, 7.35" in November, and already 6.31" through the first 14 days of December. As for temperatures, the last 90-degree day of the year was October 7, and the last 80-degree day of the year was October 17, so the heat dialed down very rapidly. As for 70-degree days, Athens didn't have one for 24 consecutive days, from November 8-December 1. The streak was ended with a one-off on December 2 (75°F, tying the daily record), but aside from that, December 3 is the only 60-degree day of the month so far, though I'm sure there will be a few more days added to the tally between now and Christmas with the slightly milder weather pattern taking hold. Interestingly, it seems that forecast temperature anomalies are higher in the North than the South, which I guess means that there won't be much of a temperature gradient with latitude. I can live with highs around 60°F and lows around 40°F at Christmastime.
  5. Phased Vort

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm Possibility

    I can imagine... Both 00Z GFS versions, have a powerful storm. Winds could be impressive with a low pressure into the 970's mb.
  6. GRR

    December 23rd-26th Storm

    Nothing like a mid December day in Indy, stiff NE wind, precip on the way...but its 42 degrees...and it will be rain!
  7. KENNYP2339

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Mt. Holly afd:.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... For tonight, large slow moving low continues to affect the area. Early this evening the primary low will be located over eastern Kentucky with a secondary low beginning to take shape off the coast of Virginia near the triple point. This low will move north along the coast through tonight eventually taking over as the main low. Expect rain to fill back in from south to north across the area and it may become moderate to even heavy at times overnight...especially over portions of eastern PA and central and northern NJ. This will be a result of increasing deep layer forcing resulting from low level warm advection near 850 mb with mid level F-gen forcing above this and left jet exit dynamics in the upper levels as a strong jet core moves off the coast. We don`t expect flash flooding issues or any river points to exceed flood stage but the rain may be heavy enough to result in urban, poor drainage flooding, and roadway ponding impacting travel. The other fly in the ointment with the forecast for tonight will be a fairly shallow cold layer that will be drawn down south as a backdoor cold front moves south from the high over New England. This will likely cause the rain to change to freezing rain mixed with sleet overnight over our northern zones through the southern Poconos into NW NJ...especially in the higher elevations. In fact we went a little colder with this latest forecast weighting the forecast more heavily toward the NAM which typically handles these scenarios well. That said, still some uncertainty in the timing of the changeover and in coordination with surrounding offices, decided to hold off on an advisory at this point. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s across these areas in the north to the upper 30s and 40s farther south. In fact the southern Delmarva will likely remain in the upper 40s as the low tracks nearby bringing the warm sector just offshore by 12z Sunday. Sunday...the surface low will linger near the southern NJ coast as the upper low moves northeast from Virginia...eventually becoming stacked over the surface low by late day. This will keep widespread rain going across the forecast area through the day with some freezing rain and sleet continuing to be an issue over the aformentioned northern zones as temperatures hover near freezing. Overall, the rain won`t be as heavy as Saturday night since the strongest warm advection and F-gen forcing will shift north and east. However it will be a cooler day accompanied by raw NE winds so all and all, not a nice finish to the weekend. In fact temperatures won`t rise much from Saturday night`s lows...remaining in the 30s in the far north and 40s elsewhere.
  8. Q-Zar

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Near-normal temperatures at Christmastime is fine with me. It means no 75-degree bullshit like I got in 2015 and 2016.
  9. KENNYP2339

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    I wonder of the nam is picking up on dynamic cooling of the column in an earlier phase of the system, other models have shown a phase between LI and southern MA. Cold air is just to the west in upstate NY. I guess its going to be a wait and see what today spits out.
  10. KENNYP2339

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Some things never change..... "Lock it in UTS!!"
  11. Today
  12. Anthonyweather

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Snowmap really doesmt jive with 2m and 850s. Only area that does support it is carbon and Monroe counties, 850s go below freezing, and 2m hangs around 34. White rain?
  13. 1816

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Better stock up on vodka, Russians.
  14. UTSwiinii

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm Possibility

    FV-XXX sure has a penchant for being entertaining. Good thing the Std. GFS has a handle on this - I was fearing that the mud pit that is my back lot, might actually dry out. EPA declared it a Wetland and I'd hate to lose that status. (/s off)
  15. UTSwiinii

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Gotta give the NAM points for consistency - the donut hole directly over my region of PA has been there all along now.
  16. ClicheVortex2014

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Look at that PV
  17. albanyweather

    December 22-25, 2018 | Christmas Potential

    This period has my mild attention. However the MJO is stalling in sector 4,5. NPAC energy still way out there.
  18. All due respect, statements like this should be backed up with scientific reasoning.
  19. snowlover2

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm

    Yes please.
  20. snowlover2

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm

    0z GFS might be a little more interesting.
  21. Grace

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Apart from SSW, I'm convinced after going through week to week progression of patterns through El Nino years that we will have "some type" of version of the Jan/FEB blend of the years I posted earlier. The odds are much higher the east U.S. is colder than normal overall than warmer than normal. With that said, while probability is "low" we see warmer than normal east, anything can happen. This is an odd year in many regards, so who knows. The fall progression is just "not" one that normally ends warm in JAN & FEB. Not one single warmer Nino Jan/Feb winters had a similar progression. That's very encouraging if you like winter. With that said that does not mean we end up with brutal cold & snowy. I'm done!
  22. PA road DAWG

    December 22-25, 2018 | Christmas Potential

    The big who? They’re overrated.
  23. I think I could say with high confidence that there will not be snow with no prolonged cold and no attic cold in the ma and thAt is pa north in the mid atl before Xmas and even into January with this pattern. I would say that the big cities will see big storm but not until March.
  24. Mike W IN ALTMAR

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Starting to look a little more likely that precip from the coastal makes it up here, at least according to the NAM/RGEM.. The question is in what variety lol
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