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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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  2. Last few years have all featured repeat patterns.... just that they favored the coast (sometimes not even west enough to hit 95). Its good when the pattern locks in a favors your area for snow, not so much when it doesnt Yes long range esp euro has been awful, despite anyone who posts model scores (at least for the tri state area)
  3. SNOWBOB11

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    Good to see the HRRR showing higher totals. It’s been solid this winter. Looks like there’s a good chance at lake enhancement for the west end of lake ontario. Good chance at a quick 10+ cm for someone if some squalls can fire up.
  4. Yea that would really help. Get the precip in here faster. That is usually the hope with these. Don't think I have ever seen such a repeat, sustained pattern. you can almost mail it in. G-tee those highs start getting locked in around mid -March, the official start of Jonesin' it for golf. That would be the ultimate stab. Too late for most for snows, but just in time to ruin an early spring. Hearing that is not likely in the long range, which means since the long range has been pathetic and polar opposite of forecasted, lock it in .
  5. StretchCT

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Kinda thought that with possibly our second largest storm that there'd be more excitement. Yeah - 3" of pure snow would be my second largest storm. And the high end..
  6. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    the SREF plume shows 3.9 inches at YYZ and 4.2 inches at YHM… not sure if this is at 10:1 or includes ratios? The interesting thing with this little system is that if by chance there is lake effect, most of the impact will be felt north of YHM and south of YYZ.
  7. FV3 loop of 24 hr snow and trend of precip
  8. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    it's gonna be cold at the surface, and aloft, so ratios should be pretty good…light fluff. Here are some kuchera totals FWIW GFS 3K NAM 18z HRRR…yes, it's showing 15-20cm for Hamilton-Stoney Creek 18z RGEM 12z HRW-WRF…let's save this to laugh at later. lol Ditto for the WRF-NSSL
  9. I don't see anything at 500mb that can save this from further warming. Trend when critical for NYC area/NEPA To go along with that, the snow map and precip map. Maybe if the moisture speeds up into the cold a bit faster and holds together more. I've noticed that the precip usually does arrive a bit earlier than modeled.
  10. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    if upper air conditions are ripe, we could see some lake enhancement around the west end of the Lake….would be nice to see 5-10cm
  11. Today
  12. MidMichiganWX

    February 18-20 Winter Storm Potential

    The storm next weekend looks interesting if it doesn’t shoot way NW.
  13. ohiobuckeye45

    February 18-20 Winter Storm Potential

    Epic pattern for the MW the next week
  14. SNOWBOB11

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    18z GFS came a bit NW. 5+ cm for SW ON. A bit less for the GTA. NAM continues to be the most NW with the precip shield.
  15. TheRex

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Looks like the 18Z has the same size snow shield as the 12Z but decreased snowfall amounts in Central New York and Massachusetts.
  16. For WHO and WHERE are you speaking of!
  17. 18Z NAM at 84hrs. Showing precipitation reaching central virginia!! It's Nam at 84 hrs so take it with a grain of salt 😉
  18. Yeah. But remember bro... we still got 6 weeks of winter left. March is always interesting ;)
  19. No offense Storms but your broad loose analysis is getting old. You've been doing this for years now. Just let the folks who know what they are talking about post.
  20. Sorry missed this, and my post was a little confusing, with referencing the model runs. My point was I agree with you it was SE, as it had a better look because of the high, etc. This one comes down to how far east the primary can get, how much the high holds and how strong it stays, both of which affect where that secondary develops. Just want to see one or two anchored highs to watch a secondary develop south and early enough to give region wide bliss before this winter is over.
  21. weather_boy2010

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Yeah, that won't be the case in the least. Keep in mind, their averages are a hell of a lot lower than ours here in the lower 48, so even a 10°C regime doesn't mean above-freezing temps, depending on the location.
  22. Agree I have nothing to gain but maybe a mix to cold rain. At least got to enjoy Friday sunny mid 60.
  23. Took a test run this morning - Sat. 02/16, didn't turn out so well: Bit of a nip this morning, temp was 30F but the dp was 12F. Had to wait for some clouds to move South and by that time Jupiter was high to the South and I never did see Venus or Saturn. I'll try again tomorrow morning, supposed to be clear at 5 - 6am building to 30% cover at 7. Monday morning looks like no chance for me with OVC skies at 5, 6, and 7am. Gotta get a clearer sky without all the trees and wires so I'm thinking about going down to the local park. That'll be good, I'll be there for a half hour and watch the local constable pull up; Whatcha doin' buddy? Park don't open till Sunrise and that'll be about an hour away....
  24. weather_boy2010

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Honestly, I don't think I would dismiss the idea of a big snowstorm or two across the OV and eastern Lakes in March. The pattern looks far more reminiscent of a Nina event than a Nino right now, with even the CPC stating the oceanic/atmospheric coupling isn't there. Anyway, if my memory recall is correct, big March snowstorms occur far more frequently in Nina setups than Ninos for the OV and eastern Lakes.
  25. I agree. Not usually but I've seen models call for a major coastal storm 7 days out only to have it flip and be a cutter up thru Michigan. So yeah its rare to flip that bad but it has happened lol
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