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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

idecline

ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

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Posted (edited)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.

 

Edited by idecline
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  The CFS is awful aggressive with its Niño forecast.  I don't think it is much of a stretch to say it's overdone.  Even though we are largely through the spring barrier, I think there are some conflicting signals, though most suggest modest warming is likely, how much is the question.

nino34Sea.thumb.gif.246fafc2e3b17d4c893702d85db71b16.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

We've seen anomalously weak trades at times.

u850a_c.gif.0415f1e0f141d5a107581b0aa016c29c.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

This drove an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave during June.  More recently, another Kelvin wave appears to be organizing, and slowly propagating eastward.  Roughly centered at 170°W.

movie_temp_0n.gif.673fd4eace5bcaf1ff68c9f0d0a71acd.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/

This warm "bulge" can also be seen in increased sea surface heights, a the waters "slosh" east

SSHA_20180815_010000.thumb.png.353c472cda73de56963d8d4d08862581.png

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/Science/datasources/ssha/

The shop has turned fairly negative as of late, but it remains to be seen whether it continues.  Even with these low values, the 39 day average is still squarely in "neutral" territory (between -8 and 😎

Screenshot_20180815-200426.thumb.jpg.f366c8cb2d3ea7e119797480cc40fc9f.jpg

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

The CFS u-wind forecast is calling for the weakened trades to continue, so it's no surprise is "buying" the Niño.

uwnd850_cfs_eqtr.thumb.png.9df8ce70a1e9ccc88c6d92e76f5e92c9.png

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo

GFS doesn't necessarily agree. (Note that the GFS forecasts 7 days where the CFS is 28)

974040560_u_anom_30.5S-5N(1).thumb.gif.b0b0c83b9129a9336ea3b3afdb10b63d.gif)

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

I think this is still a 50/50 shot at a Niño.  A Niña is unlikely.  The EKW currently just east of the dateline should begin to surface in a month or so.  None seem that strong, as they really haven't warmed the far eastern zones (1+2).  They might not even be enough to push SSTs into Niño territory, and force the atmosphere into a Niño circulation.

 

 

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I can't stop wondering if we see a return of the blob and a +pna. I keep getting a nagging feeling that might determine how this winter goes more so than the status of the nino.  

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7 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I can't stop wondering if we see a return of the blob and a +pna. I keep getting a nagging feeling that might determine how this winter goes more so than the status of the nino.  

I agree, anything short of a strong east based Niño (which I think highly unlikely) and other factors could well override ENSO.

  I'd add the EPO in, I've learned how that can dictate a winter.

The PDO is kinda in "no mans land".  I believe a +PDO generally correlates to a +PNA.  Hard to tell where is heading, but a Niño could help push it positive.  

 I've done well snow-wise in 5 of the last 6 winters, I didn't keep track before that, only the super Niño was a stinker.  Love how the discussion always ends up about winter. 🙂

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13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I agree, anything short of a strong east based Niño (which I think highly unlikely) and other factors could well override ENSO.

  I'd add the EPO in, I've learned how that can dictate a winter.

The PDO is kinda in "no mans land".  I believe a +PDO generally correlates to a +PNA.  Hard to tell where is heading, but a Niño could help push it positive.  

 I've done well snow-wise in 5 of the last 6 winters, I didn't keep track before that, only the super Niño was a stinker.  Love how the discussion always ends up about winter. 🙂

Well you're in Maine... A stinker is probably like 50 inches. You figured out how to win the snow game. 😂

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There was a lot of back and forth at the time about whether the great Pacific "warm blob" was causing the ridging out west or if the ridging was causing the sst anomaly. Kind of a chicken or egg thing. I don't know if there was ever a definitive answer to that. I do know 2 things: 1. That feature did not want to go away. Super persistent.  And 2. That persistent ridge out west meant that the east got a very steady supply of cold air. With the heat and drought out west I wonder how much that is aiding in possibly setting that up again.   It was a big factor in several big snowstorms over multiple winters a few years ago. It's definitely been warmer than usual there in the NE pacific/GOA waters.  Will have to keep an eye on it along with the possible el nino.  

 

gsstanim.gif

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SOI is nearing Niño territory despite being fairly volatile.

Screenshot_20180829-061926.thumb.jpg.62de38d78a83407a542a66541ea73dc7.jpg

You can see the passage of an EKW in late spring/early summer in this BoM time series.  The cooling in the eastern Pacific is indicative of the upwelling phase of the EKW, with a new one organizing in the west.

IDYOC007.thumb.gif.263b958664118280b4fad4a9c9411b1c.gif

The CFS is all in on the Niño, so no surprise that it predicts a general and sustained weakening of the trades.

1326298503_uwnd850_cfs.eqtr(1).thumb.png.722bb36d6b6dfed39abd7077832bdbeb.png

 ECMWF also shows the weakening in the relative near term.  I wish this view straddled the equator.

941373164_ecmwf_u850aMean_cpac_4(1).png.69693acdb996bba8beeabd3f00247ab7.png

So it looks like baby steps to a Niño, but there's still no guarantee that the Walker circulation couples with the ocean in a Niño configuration.  

 

Niño 3.4 has yet to record a weekly anomaly at 0.5° or greater. 3rd column.

                                                       1+2                             3                                 3.4                             4

Screenshot_20180829-064657.jpg.44ecce9600acc4239cb6ca6a59e1777e.jpg

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I think the recent activity in the Atlantic basin speaks about the prospects for a Niño, or I should say, lack thereof.  A Niño could still form, but I'd say the odds are dwindling.

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For 1931-2017, an SOI value of -3 or less in September is a pretty strong indicator of an El Nino developing, 24/31 cases. For Sept 1-8 it is around -10.5. Subsurface still looks OK to me too.

image.png

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Latest MEI update

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html

Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018.

Negative SST anomalies south of the Equator and along the South American coast have survived compared to last month, while positive SST anomalies are hanging in along the Equator just west of the dateline, otherwise mostly between 10N and 20N, as seen in the latest weekly SST map.

For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (9 August 2018), ENSO-neutral conditions are diagnosed, and predicted to transition to El Niño later this year with 70% odds by boreal winter. The latest MEI assessment remains in disagreement with this (for now).

 

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idee goes with the flow...so to speak...the 'slosh-back' seems imminent to my 'untrained' eye...idee's experience in viewing El-Nino's in California goes back to 1976/77 and 1982/83 when the study of ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) was very much under the 'radar'...

idee does not wish to claim any special knowledge about ENSO events...California often feels a lot of the direct effects of an ENSO event because of the alteration of storm tracks and low pressure positions in the Gulf Of Alaska that can be caused...

every ENSO event is 'unique' and is independent from what has occurred previously (historically)...in a changing world of weather the worst thing we can do is try to corral the outcome of an ENSO event before it occurs...we only have a limited knowledge

of the 'history' of events in the last 50 years, much less so of extreme events that occurred centuries ago (often staying in El Nino or La Nina cycles for perhaps decades) (this 'info' comes from analysis of ice cores from Quelccaya Ice Cap high in the Andes)...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quelccaya_Ice_Cap

frame060.png

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...um don't look now but still 60-70% chance according to NCEP...

...also 'mountains' instead of 'valleys' are becoming the 'norm' in the long term graphical presentations of ocean temperatures(SST's) in the El Nino regions...see pdf below...trends are very important to follow...especially when speaking about ocean phenomena 

...the oceans have a much longer 'memory' curve of temperature and stratification values...simply because water can store so much more energy than air can...oceanic effects upon our weather can last for years in some cases...

Quote

Heat Capacity and Energy Storage

Print

When our planet absorbs and emits energy, the temperature changes, and the relationship between energy change and temperature change of a material is wrapped up in the concept of heat capacity, sometimes called specific heat. Simply put, the heat capacity expresses how much energy you need to change the temperature of a given mass. Let’s say we have a chunk of rock that weighs one kilogram, and the rock has a heat capacity of 2000 Joules per kilogram per °C — this means that we would have to add 2000 Joules of energy to increase the temperature of the rock by 1 °C. If our rock had a mass of 10 kg, we’d need 20,000 Joules to get the same temperature increase. In contrast, water has a heat capacity of 4184 Joules per kg per °K, so you’d need twice as much energy to change its temperature by the same amount as the rock.

...for second image below...

Quote
The cooling history of two identical cubes — one consisting of air, the other of water, at the same starting temperature (293 °K, which is 20 °C). In this model, the cubes lose heat from a 1m2 surface and receive no energy from their surroundings, which is like saying that they are in a vacuum. If you did this in your backyard, the surrounding air would contribute thermal energy to the cubes if their temperatures dropped below the surrounding temperature. Notice that the temperature of the air drops off very rapidly at first, but with every drop in temperature, it gives off less energy during the next interval of time, so the rate of cooling decreases. In contrast, the water cools very, very slowly; the energy it emits is a drop in the bucket (so to speak) compared to the total amount of energy in the whole cubic meter, so the temperature change is small.
Credit: D. Bice

www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/node/1005

enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

fig9cool.png

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March 26, 2017

Just looking at SSTA's I don't see any signs of the La Nina fading or going away anytime soon. To this end, an official Nina hasn't yet been confirmed, but based on weekly values JFM's ONI should be very close to the DJF value. All in all seems like a moderate 17-18 Nina is a lock. 

Looking at the sub-surface anomalies warm water is definitely surging east, but the largest anomalies at around 150m below the surface. Vertical motions in the ocean are slow so this could easily take an entire year to reach the surface. Furthermore, based on the past couple seasons (weak Nino in 14-15, super Nino in 15-16, weak Nina in 16-17, mod Nina in 17-18) ... I'm thinking a cool-neutral in late 2018 transitioning to a warm-neutral in early 2019 and a moderate/strong Nino for the 2019-20 winter.

My forecast from late March appears to be more or less on track. ENSO neutral seems like a safe bet for this winter. 

9-24 Nino 3.4.png

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All of your forecasts have been off pretty severely, for years now. 1998-1999 wasn't like 2016-17, 1999-2000 wasn't like 2017-18, and we crossed into warm-neutral months ago, it isn't something that is going to happen in the future. Look at precipitation patterns in 1998-99 v. 2016-17 or temperatures 1999-2000 v. 2017-18 - almost opposite in huge areas of the US. The pattern in 1998-99 is a fairly normal La Nina Modoki. 2016-17 was a lot like what the re-constructed data shows for 1931-32 and 1945-46, a much warmer Nino 1.2 in a cold Nino 3.4 winter. That setup is like a colder 1997-98, and so you had incredible rains in the SW, instead of near record dryness like 1998-99. Also, using "Super El Nino" as a jumping off point for following years only works if the Ninos are similar in nature, 2015-16 was a basin-wide event, 1997-98 was an east-based, traditional El Nino.

If you're going to pretend anything can be similar, at least own up to it. You were literally off by 10F in 1/6 of the country last winter.

Gb7CwfN.png

yAqwUYr.png

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10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

All of your forecasts have been off pretty severely, for years now. 1998-1999 wasn't like 2016-17, 1999-2000 wasn't like 2017-18, and we crossed into warm-neutral months ago, it isn't something that is going to happen in the future. Look at precipitation patterns in 1998-99 v. 2016-17 or temperatures 1999-2000 v. 2017-18 - almost opposite in huge areas of the US. The pattern in 1998-99 is a fairly normal La Nina Modoki. 2016-17 was a lot like what the re-constructed data shows for 1931-32 and 1945-46, a much warmer Nino 1.2 in a cold Nino 3.4 winter. That setup is like a colder 1997-98, and so you had incredible rains in the SW, instead of near record dryness like 1998-99. Also, using "Super El Nino" as a jumping off point for following years only works if the Ninos are similar in nature, 2015-16 was a basin-wide event, 1997-98 was an east-based, traditional El Nino.

If you're going to pretend anything can be similar, at least own up to it. You were literally off by 10F in 1/6 of the country last winter.

Gb7CwfN.png

yAqwUYr.png

Welp, we're all entitled to our own opinions. You are taking my previous forecasts way out of context, but I appreciate your feedback. 

Just out of curiosity, how did your seasonal forecasts do for these years?

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I don't want to derail this - the closest Nino 3.4 SSTs for Jan-Aug since 1950, according to NOAA, were 2006 SSTs - the SST following the month (1=Jan, etc) are shown. 2012 is second, but if you look at the subsurface, the cold waters rapidly developed in July-Sept, unlike this year. 2006 subsurface is closer.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

NRZ3x1r.png

For the past three months, the SSTs in Nino 3.4 look Nino-ish -

Gvunlbv.png

My old forecasts:

East of the Rockies last year was pretty good - warm/wet. It was way too cold in the West. My thinking had been, 1930-31 looked like 2015-16 nationally for departures in highs, 1929-30 was a similar weak El Nino to 2014-15 too, and then 2016-17 had a warm Nino 1.2 and a cold Nino 3.4, and nationally it looked like 1931-32. So I included 1932-33 as an analog for the West with a bunch of dry/mild years in the West and it was 3-5F too cold.  Since 1850, 1932 is the only year besides 2017 with a major hurricane to hit TX and Puerto Rico in the same season,  and the AMO looked similar overall, with a warm band between the UK & Maine north of less warm anomalies. The issue was 1932-33 was a volcanic winter, I was banking on Agung last year but there was no big VEI eruption. I picked 6 of the 8 driest years in the SW for winter last year as analogs, but still too wet with the other two included. The blend was something like 1932, 1943, 1944, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012. I gave 1932 and 2008 double weight, 2012 one weight, and the others three weights. All of those years but 2007 and 1996 were very dry here.

In retrospect, I should have used 1933-34, not 1932-33 - it was near identical in the ENSO zones if you believe the re-constructed data to 2005 and last year and it followed a similar ONI winter.

For 2016, I don't remember what I used. I think I did a regression and concluded that 1997, 1983, 1931, 1931 blended together was closest - I could not reproduce that year satisfactorily from analogs because of Nino 1.2 (+0.6) and Nino 3.4 (-0.4) being so out of whack, but with the extreme warmth of 1997 only counted once, I was able to get a wet SW/NW while retaining a warm East and broadly La Nina looking maps. 

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I don't want to derail this - the closest Nino 3.4 SSTs for Jan-Aug since 1950, according to NOAA, were 2006 SSTs - the SST following the month (1=Jan, etc) are shown. 2012 is second, but if you look at the subsurface, the cold waters rapidly developed in July-Sept, unlike this year. 2006 subsurface is closer.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

NRZ3x1r.png

For the past three months, the SSTs in Nino 3.4 look Nino-ish -

Gvunlbv.png

My old forecasts:

East of the Rockies last year was pretty good - warm/wet. It was way too cold in the West. My thinking had been, 1930-31 looked like 2015-16 nationally for departures in highs, 1929-30 was a similar weak El Nino to 2014-15 too, and then 2016-17 had a warm Nino 1.2 and a cold Nino 3.4, and nationally it looked like 1931-32. So I included 1932-33 as an analog for the West with a bunch of dry/mild years in the West and it was 3-5F too cold.  Since 1850, 1932 is the only year besides 2017 with a major hurricane to hit TX and Puerto Rico in the same season,  and the AMO looked similar overall, with a warm band between the UK & Maine north of less warm anomalies. The issue was 1932-33 was a volcanic winter, I was banking on Agung last year but there was no big VEI eruption. I picked 6 of the 8 driest years in the SW for winter last year as analogs, but still too wet with the other two included. The blend was something like 1932, 1943, 1944, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012. I gave 1932 and 2008 double weight, 2012 one weight, and the others three weights. All of those years but 2007 and 1996 were very dry here.

In retrospect, I should have used 1933-34, not 1932-33 - it was near identical in the ENSO zones if you believe the re-constructed data to 2005 and last year and it followed a similar ONI winter.

For 2016, I don't remember what I used. I think I did a regression and concluded that 1997, 1983, 1931, 1931 blended together was closest - I could not reproduce that year satisfactorily from analogs because of Nino 1.2 (+0.6) and Nino 3.4 (-0.4) being so out of whack, but with the extreme warmth of 1997 only counted once, I was able to get a wet SW/NW while retaining a warm East and broadly La Nina looking maps. 

All due respect as you clearly put a lot of work into this and you are definitely way more knowledgeable than I am. But my gut tells me that using analogs in this way may be chasing fools gold. Things are always evolving and changing and basing anything off of older years isnt going to necessarily correlate real well with a given current year. There are so many x factors. Population has grown exponentially. Pollution over the years. Deforestation.  Just look at the difference in the sea ice, that in itself is a huge monkey wrench.  I just feel like each year is it's own snowflake. Any correlation with the analog years is based on atmospheric and oceanic factors they have in common, but you never know when the x factors are going to throw it out of whack. Also mother nature is going to do her thing at will to cause chaos. I think it's really cool to look at it all and when you guys throw the analogs out there I always check my local weather history for those years, month by month lol. But I think its more for entertainment like the almanac or a psychic hotline. I dont really expect it to match necessarily. I figure each winter will unfold in it's own unique way and attacking forecasting it from atmospheric and other factors that are actually going on this year might work better than really using the analogs quite heavily.  Again I do appreciate the time and effort you put into it. Just putting my 2 cents out there. 

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Analogs will never be perfect. I think 2006 & 1976 are closest for what the El Nino will do, but those are terrible years for most of the other stuff. The Atlantic in particular is vastly different, and the SOI/trades are different. The PDO is different too. I'm a big believer that ENSO and Modoki order are big controlling factors though. Solar has big effects in the mountains too. Where I am, solar is a huge temperature modifier in winter, and then a pretty important precipitation modifier in Summer, Spring and Fall.

I'm a big believer in matching observed weather conditions to ocean conditions. Any number of analogs can re-create ocean temps and solar conditions. I've been using 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as a blend because it's been near perfect for precip here, at a lag of one month, for four months in a row now. Max temps are good locally too. Those years (except 1934) are El Ninos following east-based La Ninas or cold-Neutrals with low solar activity, and blended together, you get the cold ring in the Atlantic. They followed exceptionally hot/dry winters in the West too. The Nino zone blends have generally been w/in 0.2C for the past six months in each zone too.

The monsoon is actually a huge deal here for predicting snow -

4zJYaKD.png

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Analogs will never be perfect. I think 2006 & 1976 are closest for what the El Nino will do, but those are terrible years for most of the other stuff. The Atlantic in particular is vastly different, and the SOI/trades are different. The PDO is different too. I'm a big believer that ENSO and Modoki order are big controlling factors though. Solar has big effects in the mountains too. Where I am, solar is a huge temperature modifier in winter, and then a pretty important precipitation modifier in Summer, Spring and Fall.

I'm a big believer in matching observed weather conditions to ocean conditions. Any number of analogs can re-create ocean temps and solar conditions. I've been using 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as a blend because it's been near perfect for precip here, at a lag of one month, for four months in a row now. Max temps are good locally too. Those years (except 1934) are El Ninos following east-based La Ninas or cold-Neutrals with low solar activity, and blended together, you get the cold ring in the Atlantic. They followed exceptionally hot/dry winters in the West too. The Nino zone blends have generally been w/in 0.2C for the past six months in each zone too.

The monsoon is actually a huge deal here for predicting snow -

4zJYaKD.png

I assume by "huge deal" you mean monsoon rainfall could explain 27% of year-to-year variability. The other 73% is a bigger deal from my perspective. 

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16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I don't want to derail this - the closest Nino 3.4 SSTs for Jan-Aug since 1950, according to NOAA, were 2006 SSTs - the SST following the month (1=Jan, etc) are shown. 2012 is second, but if you look at the subsurface, the cold waters rapidly developed in July-Sept, unlike this year. 2006 subsurface is closer.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

NRZ3x1r.png

For the past three months, the SSTs in Nino 3.4 look Nino-ish -

Gvunlbv.png

My old forecasts:

East of the Rockies last year was pretty good - warm/wet. It was way too cold in the West. My thinking had been, 1930-31 looked like 2015-16 nationally for departures in highs, 1929-30 was a similar weak El Nino to 2014-15 too, and then 2016-17 had a warm Nino 1.2 and a cold Nino 3.4, and nationally it looked like 1931-32. So I included 1932-33 as an analog for the West with a bunch of dry/mild years in the West and it was 3-5F too cold.  Since 1850, 1932 is the only year besides 2017 with a major hurricane to hit TX and Puerto Rico in the same season,  and the AMO looked similar overall, with a warm band between the UK & Maine north of less warm anomalies. The issue was 1932-33 was a volcanic winter, I was banking on Agung last year but there was no big VEI eruption. I picked 6 of the 8 driest years in the SW for winter last year as analogs, but still too wet with the other two included. The blend was something like 1932, 1943, 1944, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012. I gave 1932 and 2008 double weight, 2012 one weight, and the others three weights. All of those years but 2007 and 1996 were very dry here.

In retrospect, I should have used 1933-34, not 1932-33 - it was near identical in the ENSO zones if you believe the re-constructed data to 2005 and last year and it followed a similar ONI winter.

For 2016, I don't remember what I used. I think I did a regression and concluded that 1997, 1983, 1931, 1931 blended together was closest - I could not reproduce that year satisfactorily from analogs because of Nino 1.2 (+0.6) and Nino 3.4 (-0.4) being so out of whack, but with the extreme warmth of 1997 only counted once, I was able to get a wet SW/NW while retaining a warm East and broadly La Nina looking maps. 

Any chance you can link me to some of your posts from Accuweather stating these forecasts? I'm unfamiliar with your username here. 

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3 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Any chance you can link me to some of your posts from Accuweather stating these forecasts? I'm unfamiliar with your username here. 

Try american same name there. I think he visited accu about once in a blue moon.

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17 hours ago, 1816 said:

All due respect as you clearly put a lot of work into this and you are definitely way more knowledgeable than I am. But my gut tells me that using analogs in this way may be chasing fools gold. Things are always evolving and changing and basing anything off of older years isnt going to necessarily correlate real well with a given current year. There are so many x factors. Population has grown exponentially. Pollution over the years. Deforestation.  Just look at the difference in the sea ice, that in itself is a huge monkey wrench.  I just feel like each year is it's own snowflake. Any correlation with the analog years is based on atmospheric and oceanic factors they have in common, but you never know when the x factors are going to throw it out of whack. Also mother nature is going to do her thing at will to cause chaos. I think it's really cool to look at it all and when you guys throw the analogs out there I always check my local weather history for those years, month by month lol. But I think its more for entertainment like the almanac or a psychic hotline. I dont really expect it to match necessarily. I figure each winter will unfold in it's own unique way and attacking forecasting it from atmospheric and other factors that are actually going on this year might work better than really using the analogs quite heavily.  Again I do appreciate the time and effort you put into it. Just putting my 2 cents out there. 

It goes in multiple aspects then just forecasting ENSO as well; temps based on average will be different as well and this is just from shifting patterns. To say that we are above average well yes we are it is due to a different pattern evolving and not for the reason of excessive heat in most cases just added moisture into the air causing warming of overnight temps in locations which skews that temp idea. While it has been warm its not too far off from where we normally sit with number of 90 degrees days we dont normally hit 100 and that still stands been awhile since this has occurred. It isnt uncommon for us to have an indian summer around here with an abrupt shift in the pattern especially in the last 10 years that has been the case. The smooth transitions everyone hopes for are being interrupted to me. Our calendar year is staying the same but our seasons are shifting in time. January-March winter abrupt change April-June spring abrupt change July-September Summer abrupt change October-December fall this will surely cause things to skew and look like extremes are happening because we base so much of this staying the same during the same time interval year after year.

Just my thought on the idea so when we look at oceanic and atmospheric factors the same should follow suit.

In my eyes it is always so hard to discern what happens first and what causes what like the RRR years ago. Thought to now be from aerosal  release from China being cut but still not sure... The oceanic temp anoms were ridiculous but was it the weather pattern that caused this or was it the oceanic influence on the area that held a ridging pattern more often then not or was it a feedback where you have a stuck pattern warms oceans fuels a storm causes the pattern to get stuck again warms wash rinse repeat until it gets to an upper limit and bam. Same thing happening with the alaskan/bering sea ridge that continually shows up near where the Beaufort gyre exists was it due to a lack of sea ice or is it a pattern that continually shows up that plays a role in knocking down the ice? There are so many things that happen that make us wonder what causes what. The scandinavian ridge that shows up usually in fall/winter has shown up a couple times this spring and summer is this just a regularly occurring thing or is it due to lack of sea ice or is it due to a change in the AMO or is it a process of the slowing of the gulf stream.

Sorry didnt mean for it get taken that far but there are some many things that climo smooths out that looking back helps us understand a pattern like that shows up could be realistic but have slightly different results based off of a changing/shifting climate.

There is one thing I will say mother nature will do as it pleases whether we like it or not.

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10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It goes in multiple aspects then just forecasting ENSO as well; temps based on average will be different as well and this is just from shifting patterns. To say that we are above average well yes we are it is due to a different pattern evolving and not for the reason of excessive heat in most cases just added moisture into the air causing warming of overnight temps in locations which skews that temp idea. While it has been warm its not too far off from where we normally sit with number of 90 degrees days we dont normally hit 100 and that still stands been awhile since this has occurred. It isnt uncommon for us to have an indian summer around here with an abrupt shift in the pattern especially in the last 10 years that has been the case. The smooth transitions everyone hopes for are being interrupted to me. Our calendar year is staying the same but our seasons are shifting in time. January-March winter abrupt change April-June spring abrupt change July-September Summer abrupt change October-December fall this will surely cause things to skew and look like extremes are happening because we base so much of this staying the same during the same time interval year after year.

Just my thought on the idea so when we look at oceanic and atmospheric factors the same should follow suit.

In my eyes it is always so hard to discern what happens first and what causes what like the RRR years ago. Thought to now be from aerosal  release from China being cut but still not sure... The oceanic temp anoms were ridiculous but was it the weather pattern that caused this or was it the oceanic influence on the area that held a ridging pattern more often then not or was it a feedback where you have a stuck pattern warms oceans fuels a storm causes the pattern to get stuck again warms wash rinse repeat until it gets to an upper limit and bam. Same thing happening with the alaskan/bering sea ridge that continually shows up near where the Beaufort gyre exists was it due to a lack of sea ice or is it a pattern that continually shows up that plays a role in knocking down the ice? There are so many things that happen that make us wonder what causes what. The scandinavian ridge that shows up usually in fall/winter has shown up a couple times this spring and summer is this just a regularly occurring thing or is it due to lack of sea ice or is it due to a change in the AMO or is it a process of the slowing of the gulf stream.

Sorry didnt mean for it get taken that far but there are some many things that climo smooths out that looking back helps us understand a pattern like that shows up could be realistic but have slightly different results based off of a changing/shifting climate.

There is one thing I will say mother nature will do as it pleases whether we like it or not.

Yes. Bravo. I wonder if we find out about the rrr a little more this year as it has been really warm in this area for a long time. Might it continue into winter again, driving cold into the east? Guess we will find out. 

 

Also hard for anyone to argue about the seasonal adjustment. Late spring, delayed onset of winter, etc. Its been going on for a while now. 

Edited by 1816
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10 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Yes. Bravo. I wonder if we find out about the rrr a little more this year as it has been really warm in this area for a long time. Might it continue into winter again, driving cold into the east? Guess we will find out. 

 

Also hard for anyone to argue about the seasonal adjustment. Late spring, delayed onset of winter, etc. Its been going on for a while now. 

To me in this complex system it is important to have past analogs to look off of but not use through in and out some are dead on for not the same reasons though which throws a whole new idea into what we thought could happen. Its important to expand and list the factors like Raindancewx has for each season that is similar but see what differs. Thats how this field will grow is to not shut down the ideas but learn and grow from them. Everyone now seems to be all I need to make the perfect forecast, but personally if I see a forecast come out I dont scrutinize it for being completely or slightly wrong I look at it what did that person look at as the strongest factors what actually occurred and what can we improve upon in getting a more solid forecast overall in understanding  what is happening that should be the goal not being right or wrong in what seems to be a game of who is better.

This last part though is an interesting thing will have to see if this continues on in time.

P.S. not saying you shut him down want that to be clear.

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