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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

idecline

ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

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The SOI for December has been pretty positive so far - pretty unusual for a December in an El Nino. The most recent El Ninos with a +SOI in December are 1965, 1968, 1969. I'm not big on 1968, but you did have major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico in 1965 and 1969, and the 1969 Fall pattern wasn't super different from this year. Will be looking at those years closely for January if the SOI remains positive in December, especially since 1969 seems to be a good MJO match too going by the monthly US temperature progression in Fall.

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...it is a bit much to directly blame 'El-Nino'...headline from SA...

Quote

El Nino triggers landslides in Peru, tornado in Argentina

The natural phenomenon, which occurs between November and March, has triggered severe weather in South America.

15 Nov 2018
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source:  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/el-nino-triggers-landslides-peru-tornado-argentina-181115092736681.html

...on the other hand unusually warm waters are also creeping north along the SA coast...which are not all that warm when it comes to El-Nino waters, yet they show that the South American Pacific Gyre (basically rotates counter-clockwise) is moving warmer than average water north...FWIW...source(OceanTracks.org)

idee

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Edited by idecline

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