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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

idecline

ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

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The SOI for December has been pretty positive so far - pretty unusual for a December in an El Nino. The most recent El Ninos with a +SOI in December are 1965, 1968, 1969. I'm not big on 1968, but you did have major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico in 1965 and 1969, and the 1969 Fall pattern wasn't super different from this year. Will be looking at those years closely for January if the SOI remains positive in December, especially since 1969 seems to be a good MJO match too going by the monthly US temperature progression in Fall.

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...it is a bit much to directly blame 'El-Nino'...headline from SA...

Quote

El Nino triggers landslides in Peru, tornado in Argentina

The natural phenomenon, which occurs between November and March, has triggered severe weather in South America.

15 Nov 2018
  •  

source:  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/el-nino-triggers-landslides-peru-tornado-argentina-181115092736681.html

...on the other hand unusually warm waters are also creeping north along the SA coast...which are not all that warm when it comes to El-Nino waters, yet they show that the South American Pacific Gyre (basically rotates counter-clockwise) is moving warmer than average water north...FWIW...source(OceanTracks.org)

idee

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Edited by idecline

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On 12/5/2018 at 7:15 PM, idecline said:

...it is a bit much to directly blame 'El-Nino'...headline from SA...

source:  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/el-nino-triggers-landslides-peru-tornado-argentina-181115092736681.html

...on the other hand unusually warm waters are also creeping north along the SA coast...which are not all that warm when it comes to El-Nino waters, yet they show that the South American Pacific Gyre (basically rotates counter-clockwise) is moving warmer than average water north...FWIW...source(OceanTracks.org)

idee

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Interesting enough that the Dec 5th shows a warm belt from Panama into the 1+2 region via the Panamanian current.

 

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The November PDO was -0.05 on the Nate Mantua/JISAO index according to the email he sent out earlier. 

 

Edited by raindancewx

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...as expected...(ha Ha)...it appears that the 'timely' OKW (Oceanic Kelvin Wave) is arriving on the shores of South America right on time...it will greet the 'El-Nino' with warmer coastal waters in the the holiday..."Feliz Navidad"!

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Weeklies are very similar to Dec 1994 this month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
  Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 07DEC1994     23.3 0.9     26.0 0.9     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.1
 14DEC1994     23.4 0.7     25.9 0.8     27.9 1.3     29.5 1.1
 21DEC1994     23.7 0.6     26.2 1.0     27.9 1.3     29.3 0.9

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SOI finished at +9.2 in December, but it has been very volatile lately. 

December subsurface heat for the top 300m, 100-180W, was +1.13.

Expecting either a blend of 1986, 1986, 2015, or 1982, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2002 to look a lot like the national temperature anomaly map this January.

First blend is more focused on matches that are good for December - and it is closer to what the Canadian shows (wet SW/CA).

The Oct-Dec ONI value should come in around +0.9C, depending on exactly what CPC has for December. It's probably 27.6C or so for the month given the weeklies.

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According to Australia's BoM, this "Niño" is running on fumes, needs another Kelvin wave.  The positive SOI likely a prime suspect.

1308019233_IDYOC007(1).thumb.gif.62ae68d677213b4b00dd055762e07445.gif

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Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11
3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31
2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48
1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66
31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67
30 Dec 2018 1010.45 1005.45 6.64 9.46 4.50
29 Dec 2018 1011.15 1004.35 15.98 9.44 4.16

 

 

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Posted (edited)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

As of January 7, 2019 the latest CPC 'ENSO' alert gives "about" 90% chance of 'El-Nino' conditions this winter...some augmentation seems to be already occurring in California...as the storm track moves several storms in this week...with late week expected to have a Southern California focus...very 'indicative' of possibly 'El-Nino' enhanced storms...also as noted in the Tropical thread by PhasedVort there is anomalous tropical moisture gathering occurring off the West Coast of Baja California...not a climatological  'normal' by any means...

As for Kelvin waves...idee has a feeling that several more will be generated soon...the effects of the recent 'arrival' of OKW's has not even been fully felt across the basin as of yet...and trade winds will likely be waning or reversing for a period very soon...IMHO...

The SST's are certainly within the threshold for a 'post-factual' scientific hindsight definition of "El-Nino conditions" as the second straight month of ONI numbers has been met...meanwhile in the 'real' world...it looks to be a 'wild' winter out west...and into the southern plains...

The all important "Thermocline" ('idecline' likes that word:classic_cool:) is dropping along the West Coast of South America...as they head into 'austral' summer the lack of storm systems and disruption of upwelling ocean waters should be a sign of full-blown El-Nino conditions...

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Edited by idecline

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Australia's BoM

Quote

Some recent cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El Niño levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlookremains at El Niño ALERT.

While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.

The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.

Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

Please note: due to the US Government shutdown, some of our usual maps are currently unavailable.

 

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Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific

Not familiar with the Aussie dataset (BNOC?) but expecting CPC to (eventually) show Nino 3.4 around 27.6C in December.

Edited by raindancewx

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This is a 27.4C El Nino so far, for the first half of DJF. 
1951-2010 average for DJF is 26.5C, so around +0.9C, but CPC uses a warmer average, they'd have 27.4C at +0.8C.

I think with the SOI crash this month for at least two weeks, a rebound is possible, but I don't think this event
peaks at a level above 27.6C or 27.7C on a monthly basis.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
Edited by raindancewx

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"Is that all there is"  to quote the title of the Peggy Lee hit of 1969...well...yes the 'atmosphere' has not (yet) responded the high SST's across the equatorial Pacific Ocean...do we know what starts the mechanism?...not really...is it the weakening of trade winds or the development of OKW's or is there a 'critical' threshold that has yet to be realized for this 'event'...Oceans have a much longer memory than the atmosphere does...and the temperatures are 'declining' in the 'favored' areas right now...yet a ray of hope remains for 'full-blown' 'El-Nino' conditions to arrive...#1 Ocean and atmospheric 'coupling' is only vaguely understood...and often appears to occur 'simultaneous' when it arrives...the amount of warmer than average below surface waters are just a 'hint' of what may be left to come...(check graphs below) #2 ENSO and 'El-Nino' analysis is still only in it's infancy...and "every event is unique" (idee quote:classic_wink:)...so no one really knows what is yet to come this season as far as 'impacts' of this 'event' (whether it is declared 'official' or not) ...as a 'Native' Californian idee has seen the result of 'El-Nino' conditions 'directly' effect the weather in the State of California...i.e. Flooding rains, mudslides, driftwood piled 20 ft. high on the beach in Santa Cruz during the 1982-83 "Super' El-Nino...rainfall rates of over an inch per hour in the Santa Cruz Mountains etc...\

check the heat content below the surface that still has yet to 'rise to the top' before you declare it's over...to use a 'fake quote'? attributed to Samuel Langhorne Clemens (Mark Twain!)...

Quote

“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” 

 

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