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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

UTSwiinii

August 17-18, 2018 | Severe Storm Threat

Solstice

Event is ongoing.

Message added by Solstice

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SPC sparking interest in this potential - two culprits at play. One is an approaching warm front which should move in ahead in response to a shortwave travelling  north of the MidAtl and bring rains to interior NE and points N-E from there. I would think that region would welcome some moisture. Part two is  sun induced destabilization to affect the regions E of the Apps (roughly).

SPC.PNG.e1c1ce29374126a2146e7c1b8ee80820.PNGuntitled.png.5f1feac86acf05457af77ba23f01b581.png

Note the wording "continue to monitor for possible slight risk in later updates". So much of that will depend how nearby and at what precise strength will the shortwave energy pass within the region. Those details need to resolve and are a good place to start the discussion. 

 

 

 

 

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August 4th is the last precip event that was able to get a good reading from...have some sprinkles since that maybe provides a few hundreths of an inch but my rain gauge doesn't do well with small amounts. Definitely wouldn't mind a decent rainfall here . Not that things seem to be really drying out besides potted plants though...but still have been watering my garden just in case.

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1 hour ago, telejunkie said:

August 4th is the last precip event that was able to get a good reading from...have some sprinkles since that maybe provides a few hundreths of an inch but my rain gauge doesn't do well with small amounts. Definitely wouldn't mind a decent rainfall here . Not that things seem to be really drying out besides potted plants though...but still have been watering my garden just in case.

Watering what's that. Haven't watered around here since Early July.

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I can't believe it, but the sun is out !!! Going to cut grass before it rains again.🚜

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4 hours ago, Phillyfan said:

Watering what's that. Haven't watered around here since Early July.

Yeah...been the tale of the summer. You guys have been consistently in a band of instability and LP. Other areas well to your north have not been under those conditions. I'd say I'm probably slightly above normal for precip this summer, but that was following a fairly dry end of spring/early summer. I could probably count on my hands the number of days that precip arrived too. Been either 3" of rain in a day or nothing (yes that was hyperbole).

It's crazy, check out the differences in river flows between many of the Delware's checkpoints vs. upper Hudson river checkpoints or upper Connecticut River: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=btv

Edited by telejunkie

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.

Quote

 

Northeast States and Middle Atlantic regions...

   Storms will likely be ongoing within plume of subtropical moisture   along warm conveyor belt from the Ohio Valley into a portion of the
   Northeast States. Downstream from this activity and primarily east   of the Appalachians, some diabatic warming of the boundary layer may   result in moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible.
   Storms may redevelop over the northeast U.S. along warm front,   residual outflow boundaries from ongoing convection, as well as   farther south over the higher terrain of the central Appalachians   and spread east. Some augmentation of the vertical wind profiles   will occur in association with the northern-stream shortwave trough   and the migratory low-level jet, especially in the vicinity of the
   warm front.
However, primary uncertainty in this region is extent of   ongoing convection and clouds and the potential impact on
   destabilization. Will therefore maintain the marginal risk category   this update. 

   Farther south across the Mid Atlantic, wind profiles will be weaker,   but greater destabilization potential suggests multicell storms that   move off the higher terrain or develop along lee trough may become
   capable of producing a few instances of downburst winds during the   afternoon.

 

 

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So... its gonna rain.... but in all seriousness it doesn't take much wind (aka 40 - 50 mph gusts) to cause tree issues in the MA and S NE right now, the soil is just to saturated for the roots to handle. Working for my utility co, I've been seeing large tree's just dropping a few times  a day with no organized wind, just keep that in mind if your outdoors following any storms, tree's (mainly oaks) are weak atm. 

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Wpc Days 1-3 

Some areas just to my west received 6”-8” in just a few hours the other day, so rain is not necessarily needed at the moment...

166BD157-6BED-44EE-81D7-9CBEF043BC3D.gif

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26 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Wpc Days 1-3 

Some areas just to my west received 6”-8” in just a few hours the other day, so rain is not necessarily needed at the moment...

166BD157-6BED-44EE-81D7-9CBEF043BC3D.gif

At least it looks like most of the areas of Central and Eastern PA that have been getting dumped on for the last three weeks will be in the area that should get the least amount of rain. 

Edited by bradjl2009
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4 hours ago, KENNYP2339 said:

So... its gonna rain.... but in all seriousness it doesn't take much wind (aka 40 - 50 mph gusts) to cause tree issues in the MA and S NE right now, the soil is just to saturated for the roots to handle. Working for my utility co, I've been seeing large tree's just dropping a few times  a day with no organized wind, just keep that in mind if your outdoors following any storms, tree's (mainly oaks) are weak atm. 

Meanwhile in Northern VT a buddy in Williamstown just had to get water trucked in to fill his well as its run dry...and towns are urging residents to use "blade up" policy when mowing.

Edited by telejunkie

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GFS show some decent CAPE values tomorrow afternoon in Southern PA and Maryland. Looks like 4000 + at the PA/MD border. If that comes to fruition, could get some really nice thunderstorms though I'm not seeing much in sheer thankfully. cape.thumb.png.9b572143582edc0656cb4ff5111b42d9.png

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Another 90+ degree day at the shore. NW flow heating the air and the down sloping drying it out. It is hot, humidity is tolerable but right on the edge will be brutally muggy tonight as flow turns more SSW.

Conditions looking ripe late afternoon and evening Friday at the coast for possible severe storms and scattered storms all day Saturday.  

Current radar showing western parts of region getting in on the action today.

radar321.gif

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1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

GFS show some decent CAPE values tomorrow afternoon in Southern PA and Maryland. Looks like 4000 + at the PA/MD border. If that comes to fruition, could get some really nice thunderstorms though I'm not seeing much in sheer thankfully. cape.thumb.png.9b572143582edc0656cb4ff5111b42d9.png

Yeah - CAPE without some turning of the winds (shear if you will) plus relatively weak lapse rates (I think, as the shortwave shears out to the N of the higher parameter regions for CAPE) should keep things to a "dull roar" instead of a "twisted" situation. Obviously, heavy rain is an even bigger threat for those regions, than would otherwise be in a more "traditional" pre-game situation.  Edited to add - the saturation level of the soils right now cause additional concern for toppled trees even if the winds are "straight lined" or even just gusty ( a point made earlier today by KennyP)

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I noticed SPC updated some areas to a slight risk for Friday.

image.png.1beecc2d8b8cf4db2f17f53280230483.png

 Some supporting text

...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...
   A warm front should lift northward over much of the Northeast
   through the day, and a very moist low-level airmass, with dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to lower 70s, will likely be in place to the south
   of this front. Even through mid-level lapse rates will remain poor,
   as diurnal heating occurs instability should increase into the
   1000-2000 J/kg range across southern VT/NH into eastern NY, western
   MA/CT and vicinity. Although relatively stronger mid-level flow may
   remain mostly displaced to the north of this region, forecast
   soundings from the NAM/RAP show sufficient veering/strengthening
   with height to support 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of
   multicells and marginal supercell structures should occur, and most
   high-resolution guidance suggests convection will probably develop
   along a pre-frontal trough by Friday afternoon and subsequently
   spread eastward through the evening. Have introduced a Slight risk
   for part of the Northeast for the potential of isolated strong to
   damaging winds with one or more bowing clusters. A tornado or two
   may also occur along and south of the warm front given the forecast
   strength of the low-level jet.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

I noticed SPC updated some areas to a slight risk for Friday.

image.png.1beecc2d8b8cf4db2f17f53280230483.png

 Some supporting text


...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...
   A warm front should lift northward over much of the Northeast
   through the day, and a very moist low-level airmass, with dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to lower 70s, will likely be in place to the south
   of this front. Even through mid-level lapse rates will remain poor,
   as diurnal heating occurs instability should increase into the
   1000-2000 J/kg range across southern VT/NH into eastern NY, western
   MA/CT and vicinity. Although relatively stronger mid-level flow may
   remain mostly displaced to the north of this region, forecast
   soundings from the NAM/RAP show sufficient veering/strengthening
   with height to support 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of
   multicells and marginal supercell structures should occur, and most
   high-resolution guidance suggests convection will probably develop
   along a pre-frontal trough by Friday afternoon and subsequently
   spread eastward through the evening. Have introduced a Slight risk
   for part of the Northeast for the potential of isolated strong to
   damaging winds with one or more bowing clusters. A tornado or two
   may also occur along and south of the warm front given the forecast
   strength of the low-level jet.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

 

 

 

That is a large area covered in the map. Only areas in the clear are the west coast, northern great plains, and south Texas.  :classic_blink:

 

Eta: also a caribou or two up in Maine. 

Edited by 1816

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Yeah, be nice if California could cash in on some of this to help with those wildfires

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10 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Yeah, be nice if California could cash in on some of this to help with those wildfires

Yes - the ol' weather (see) "saw" of ridge west/trough east playing out. I've always thought it to be a bit "telling" of our times that we will transport oil over vast distances, but not so much water. 

But to get back to the topic at hand, I noticed this on the 3KNAM.

sigtor.thumb.PNG.90f2d4bfd36ab7d7ef659288896543b6.PNG

Let's hope that is 3K being 3K (susceptible to exaggeration at times) and not a true signal. 

 

3knam.thumb.PNG.19dd9467dd551fe0f8e527ef9a8f6f1d.PNG

Kind of ominous (image centers on highest STP Fixed Layer, within NAM image above)

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3 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Yes - the ol' weather (see) "saw" of ridge west/trough east playing out. I've always thought it to be a bit "telling" of our times that we will transport oil over vast distances, but not so much water. 

But to get back to the topic at hand, I noticed this on the 3KNAM.

sigtor.thumb.PNG.90f2d4bfd36ab7d7ef659288896543b6.PNG

Let's hope that is 3K being 3K (susceptible to exaggeration at times) and not a true signal. 

 

3knam.thumb.PNG.19dd9467dd551fe0f8e527ef9a8f6f1d.PNG

Kind of ominous (image centers on highest STP Fixed Layer, within NAM image above)

Yeah UTS, lets do hope the NAM is exaggerating. I'm one county below that huge mass of red/blue. I was expecting a stormy Friday but not to those

extremes. Looks to be a busy day of tracking in New York's Hudson Valley. Thanks for the heads up.

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Quote

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
350 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

NYZ075-178-179-180900-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
350 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition to the heat, severe thunderstorm development is possible
this afternoon and evening. The primary threat is damaging winds,
however an isolated tornado is also possible. There is also a low
flash flood threat with the heaviest storms.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean today.
Quote

NYZ080-180900-
Southwestern Suffolk-
350 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a moderate rip current risk today. In addition to the rip
current threat, severe thunderstorm development is possible late this
afternoon and tonight. The primary threat is damaging winds, however
an isolated tornado is also possible. There is also a low flash
flood threat with the heaviest storms.

And many more, looks like a hot and stormy day coming up.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=HWO&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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Same concern here on the CT-MA line. Thanks for the alert.

Edited by FlyingGuy

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13 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Yeah UTS, lets do hope the NAM is exaggerating. I'm one county below that huge mass of red/blue. I was expecting a stormy Friday but not to those

extremes. Looks to be a busy day of tracking in New York's Hudson Valley. Thanks for the heads up.

What part of Duchess County you in, brother? I'm working Millbrook today.

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35 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

What part of Duchess County you in, brother? I'm working Millbrook today.

I'm in Beacon. I hope your day is not too busy at the firehouse

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59 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

I'm in Beacon. I hope your day is not too busy at the firehouse

He says as Millbrook FD goes to a mutual aid structure job...

 

😂

 

I'm on the ambulance today, lol. 

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Its pea soup out today. There has to be some storms brewing from this airmass.

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16 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

But to get back to the topic at hand, I noticed this on the 3KNAM.

sigtor.thumb.PNG.90f2d4bfd36ab7d7ef659288896543b6.PNG

Let's hope that is 3K being 3K (susceptible to exaggeration at times) and not a true signal. 

 

 

Looks like NAM did indeed exaggerate as nothing even severe in nature popped. One cell looked like it may explode as it sailed by overhead, but hasn't really gained structure. Decent rainfall currently though which is welcome...

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