Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

shaulov4

Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion OBS

Staff Recommended Posts

Welcome, I know it will take time but decided to make this thread, hope to see old friends back here again.

Unknown.jpeg.2e0546f95c14bee4a3206a3ab73e9ed9.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1067227561_ElNinoCompare_1531457011988.png_48441454_ver1.0_640_360.jpg.222a4b09f3a6c1b4a79e88c0446bf5a5.jpg

Word on the street that a Weak-Moderate El Nino is in store for us this Winter. This is what it may look like. (Note that I'm just playing with the site for now...as we all will)

Edited by shaulov4
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Test post. 

I think someone will get snow this winter, but don't quote me on that. Sun angle still too high right now

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Miller A said:

Test post. 

I think someone will get snow this winter, but don't quote me on that. Sun angle still too high right now

map.jpg.7d65511bb403d23e40afc5d80115f259.jpg.e9584bfd20f1fd19f476fcf7a06adc28.jpg

MDBR quoted Marguisity in a different thread showing this map as the potential winners this winter :classic_biggrin:

  • Haha 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We don't have an ENSO thread yet,  so I'll post this here.

 

From Dr. Klaus Wolter (not the whole discussion) my bold. 

With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only three for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).

 

Compared to last month, the updated (June-July) MEI dropped rapidly to +0.07, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral ranking. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.6 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (March-April), there are only four analogues to the situation this season: 1985, '00, '01, and '08. All four of these cases either continued with ENSO-neutral conditions (2001) or dropped into at least intermittent La Niña conditions (especially in 2008, but also in 2000, and very briefly in 1985). Even among the other eight cases, El Niño was 'not on the menu' (2003 came closest). Compared to last month, the likelihood of El Niño conditions later this year has changed dramatically (from "inevitable" to "very unlikely").

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

We don't have an ENSO thread yet,  so I'll post this here.

 

From Dr. Klaus Wolter (not the whole discussion) my bold. 

 

 

Interesting.  And coming from Klaus and his mei index makes one wonder 

my only thought is kind of silly.  

The lower hurricane activity to me is a harbinger of forthcoming niño conditions.  I always try to look a thing things organically and how they ebb and flow within their connections.  

TBH I havent had too much time to really follow enso this season except looking at modeling both statistical and dynamic outputs.  I do know we are approaching the fall barrier and it's always difficult to surmise outputs between both the spring and fall seasons.

Edited by Poconosnow
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Miller A said:

Test post. 

I think someone will get snow this winter, but don't quote me on that. Sun angle still too high right now

Oh you 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/7/2018 at 1:05 AM, shaulov4 said:

1067227561_ElNinoCompare_1531457011988.png_48441454_ver1.0_640_360.jpg.222a4b09f3a6c1b4a79e88c0446bf5a5.jpg

Word on the street that a Weak-Moderate El Nino is in store for us this Winter. This is what it may look like. (Note that I'm just playing with the site for now...as we all will)

This might be the only time I ever root for El Nino, but I hope this pans out! This summer has been brutal so far here in South FL. I'd welcome some Seattle like cold and rainy weather this winter! 😁

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/10/2018 at 4:21 PM, Ron in Miami said:

This might be the only time I ever root for El Nino, but I hope this pans out! This summer has been brutal so far here in South FL. I'd welcome some Seattle like cold and rainy weather this winter! 😁

Forgive my ignorance but does this chart show that Middle Tennessee (near Nashville) will get at the very least a slightly colder season than average? We just moved to this area and are hoping for a decent amount of snow for our first winter. 

Thanks in advance!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Gator said:

Forgive my ignorance but does this chart show that Middle Tennessee (near Nashville) will get at the very least a slightly colder season than average? We just moved to this area and are hoping for a decent amount of snow for our first winter. 

Thanks in advance!

It would be good for cool temps there. Moisture is another story. I think Nashville is too far inland to cash in on the big east coast storms most root for. I'm actually not too sure what that area averages snow wise but I'm thinking not a whole lot. 

I checked they actually avg 7 inches. So definitely not getting huge storms yearly there. Good luck. 

Edited by 1816
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 1816 said:

It would be good for cool temps there. Moisture is another story. I think Nashville is too far inland to cash in on the big east coast storms most root for. I'm actually not too sure what that area averages snow wise but I'm thinking not a whole lot. 

Thanks for the reply. We don't get too much but it's hard to tell what site has an accurate number. I see anywhere between 4 inches to 10 inches average snowfall in Hendersonville, TN. Whats the most accurate place to find average snowfall numbers?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Gator said:

Forgive my ignorance but does this chart show that Middle Tennessee (near Nashville) will get at the very least a slightly colder season than average? We just moved to this area and are hoping for a decent amount of snow for our first winter. 

Thanks in advance!

The top 3 panels in that graph are temperature anomalies, blue being colder and red being hotter. The Bottom 3 panels are precipitation anomalies, blue colors are more rain/snow and red colors are less rain or snow. So if we do get a weak to moderate El Nino event this year I'd say your chances are increased to see colder weather this winter, and possibly some snow.  Though for the snow it would need to be a moderate to strong El nino for increased precipitation. That's my interpretation of it anyway 🙂 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Gator said:

Thanks for the reply. We don't get too much but it's hard to tell what site has an accurate number. I see anywhere between 4 inches to 10 inches average snowfall in Hendersonville, TN. Whats the most accurate place to find average snowfall numbers?

I got 7 from usclimatedata. It's in between 4 and 10 so it's probably close. Sometimes a small bit of elevation can make a huge difference. In a place like nashville I'm sure the urban heat island is a big deal so the rural areas probably do better. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Gator said:

Thanks for the reply. We don't get too much but it's hard to tell what site has an accurate number. I see anywhere between 4 inches to 10 inches average snowfall in Hendersonville, TN. Whats the most accurate place to find average snowfall numbers?

I like to use the NOWData from NWS.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx

Here's the average monthly snowfall for Nashville. (1981-2010 climo)  I imagine there is a large variation of lean years punctuated by the occasional busy year.

chart.thumb.png.91589d0b8f64ce59328a854c0093971e.png

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for all of your responses to my semi-hijack 😉

I'm happy with 5-7 inches of snow a year as an average but being from Florida we really wanted to have a heavier snow year in the area as the kids are dying to see it. Would love to eventually have a white Christmas although I'm aware that would be pretty rare for my area. Anyway, I appreciate the kind responses, thanks for all the info you guys provide!

PS: Love this forum, I've been a lurker in the Accuweather forum during hurricane seasons and relied very heavily on that site when we were under the gun from Irma last year. I used to live in Fort Myers, FL. 

Edited by Gator
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good to see some familiar faces here from the soon-to-be history accuweather days.

Someday get grace over here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Gator said:

Thanks for all of your responses to my semi-hijack 😉

I'm happy with 5-7 inches of snow a year as an average but being from Florida we really wanted to have a heavier snow year in the area as the kids are dying to see it. Would love to eventually have a white Christmas although I'm aware that would be pretty rare for my area. Anyway, I appreciate the kind responses, thanks for all the info you guys provide!

PS: Love this forum, I've been a lurker in the Accuweather forum during hurricane seasons and relied very heavily on that site when we were under the gun from Irma last year. I used to live in Fort Myers, FL. 

This is fun to play along...top 5 winters and snowstorm's for Nashville. Source

nashvilles-snowiest-winters_38277452_ver1.0_640_360.jpg

nashvilles-top-5-snow-storms_38277430_ver1.0_640_360.jpg

Looks like you're overdue for a big winter 😉

Edited by telejunkie
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok... maybe not 38 inches lol.

Thanks for the info, it's quite interesting that these numbers are from so long ago. I wonder what conditions (El Nino, ENSO, etc) were like to create such a heavy winter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Gator said:

Thanks for all of your responses to my semi-hijack 😉

I'm happy with 5-7 inches of snow a year as an average but being from Florida we really wanted to have a heavier snow year in the area as the kids are dying to see it. Would love to eventually have a white Christmas although I'm aware that would be pretty rare for my area. Anyway, I appreciate the kind responses, thanks for all the info you guys provide!

PS: Love this forum, I've been a lurker in the Accuweather forum during hurricane seasons and relied very heavily on that site when we were under the gun from Irma last year. I used to live in Fort Myers, FL. 

Awesome to see you become more than a lurker!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/16/2018 at 10:13 AM, Gator said:

Ok... maybe not 38 inches lol.

Thanks for the info, it's quite interesting that these numbers are from so long ago. I wonder what conditions (El Nino, ENSO, etc) were like to create such a heavy winter. 

That winter was as neutral as they get, the DJF ONI was -0.1

Worthy of noting, that winter was also in the midst of one of the most active solar cycles of the last century.

bfly.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Time to start kicking around some analogs.  I was looking at the QBO.  Here's the last 18 months.  The easterlies have moved from 30mb down into the 50mb layer, and may well be weakening.  Westerlies have appeared above 30mb, and should begin propagating down over the next few weeks and months, so I assumed a westerly QBO for this upcoming winter to create these hypothetical situations.

ezgif-3-3aa386c637.thumb.gif.3f31ca1b60f0374c92eea87bf7aa3d88.gif

Solar is low.

  ENSO is a wild card at this time, but I think a Niña is highly unlikely, so I eliminated that as a possibility.

I used this criteria to create two scenarios, one with neutral ENSO, one with el Niño. Unfortunately, there are few real good matches, I only identified 2 winters for each case.

So, the low solar, west QBO, neutral years I came up with were 1952-53, 1996-97.

H5. Looks like +EPO, a weak -PNA, and a fairly strong -NAO that isn't oriented well for an east coast snow lover.  This might be a good stormy pattern for the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes however, and a stormy Pacific NW.

WestQBO.LowSolar.Neutral.png.1a48a454e4c32a241236466377db3891.png

Precip

cd67_253_100_84_229_20_45_17_prcp.png.fdd98d6bf4d316d43a7ed2c18b37290f.png

Temps

cd67_253_100_84_229_20_45_41_prcp.png.de0872bee6be9b5ddf88ab3b4f67d7da.png

 

Low solar, west QBO, El Niño were 1963-64 and 1994-95 and looks as follows.

Edit: I should note that 63-64 looked more central, maybe even "modoki", while 94-95 was not quite basin wide, but definitely "broader".  

H5 I'd call this a weak -NAO, +PNA, and a mostly +EPO.  the SE CONUS troffing brings the cold, but also seems to shunt GOMEX moisture from the CONUS , save the SE coast.

WestQBO.LowSolar_Nino.png.b34010e6a913ee0be9a9c0c0650f5dd3.png

Precip

cd67_253_100_84_229_20_46_21_prcp.png.62f45298864da2af6dc25cbd97590e16.png

Temps

cd67_253_100_84_229_20_46_41_prcp.png.beea993c68a126e964ce99e1bee5ebea.png

 

 If I characterized the teleconnections in a way that others object, please speak up, it'll create discussion. 🙂

I considered putting all 4 into a composite, but I thought they might Camden each other out in some ways, plus, laying out two possibilities was more fun I think, gives more to talk about.  

 

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Time to start kicking around some analogs.  I was looking at the QBO.  Here's the last 18 months.  The easterlies have moved from 30mb down into the 50mb layer, and may well be weakening.  Westerlies have appeared above 30mb, and should begin propagating down over the next few weeks and months, so I assumed a westerly QBO for this upcoming winter to create these hypothetical situations.

Solar is low.

  ENSO is a wild card at this time, but I think a Niña is highly unlikely, so I eliminated that as a possibility.

I used this criteria to create two scenarios, one with neutral ENSO, one with el Niño. Unfortunately, there are few real good matches, I only identified 2 winters for each case.

So, the low solar, west QBO, neutral years I came up with were 1952-53, 1996-97.

H5. Looks like +EPO, a weak -PNA, and a fairly strong -NAO that isn't oriented well for an east coast snow lover.  This might be a good stormy pattern for the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes however, and a stormy Pacific NW.

Precip

Temps

Low solar, west QBO, El Niño were 1963-64 and 1994-95 and looks as follows.

Edit: I should note that 63-64 looked more central, maybe even "modoki", while 94-95 was not quite basin wide, but definitely "broader".  

H5 I'd call this a weak -NAO, +PNA, and a mostly +EPO.  the SE CONUS troffing brings the cold, but also seems to shunt GOMEX moisture from the CONUS , save the SE coast.

 

Precip

Temps

 If I characterized the teleconnections in a way that others object, please speak up, it'll create discussion. 🙂

I considered putting all 4 into a composite, but I thought they might Camden each other out in some ways, plus, laying out two possibilities was more fun I think, gives more to talk about.  

 

 

Well done my friend heres to a fall full of analog arguments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/15/2018 at 10:24 PM, Gator said:

Thanks for all of your responses to my semi-hijack 😉

I'm happy with 5-7 inches of snow a year as an average but being from Florida we really wanted to have a heavier snow year in the area as the kids are dying to see it. Would love to eventually have a white Christmas although I'm aware that would be pretty rare for my area. Anyway, I appreciate the kind responses, thanks for all the info you guys provide!

PS: Love this forum, I've been a lurker in the Accuweather forum during hurricane seasons and relied very heavily on that site when we were under the gun from Irma last year. I used to live in Fort Myers, FL. 

New here from Accuweather . I moved back from Naples fl after 4 yrs  back to my hometown can't wait for snow ..

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Time to start kicking around some analogs.  I was looking at the QBO.  Here's the last 18 months.  The easterlies have moved from 30mb down into the 50mb layer, and may well be weakening.  Westerlies have appeared above 30mb, and should begin propagating down over the next few weeks and months, so I assumed a westerly QBO for this upcoming winter to create these hypothetical situations.

Solar is low.

  ENSO is a wild card at this time, but I think a Niña is highly unlikely, so I eliminated that as a possibility.

I used this criteria to create two scenarios, one with neutral ENSO, one with el Niño. Unfortunately, there are few real good matches, I only identified 2 winters for each case.

So, the low solar, west QBO, neutral years I came up with were 1952-53, 1996-97.

H5. Looks like +EPO, a weak -PNA, and a fairly strong -NAO that isn't oriented well for an east coast snow lover.  This might be a good stormy pattern for the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes however, and a stormy Pacific NW.

Precip

Temps

Low solar, west QBO, El Niño were 1963-64 and 1994-95 and looks as follows.

Edit: I should note that 63-64 looked more central, maybe even "modoki", while 94-95 was not quite basin wide, but definitely "broader".  

H5 I'd call this a weak -NAO, +PNA, and a mostly +EPO.  the SE CONUS troffing brings the cold, but also seems to shunt GOMEX moisture from the CONUS , save the SE coast.

Precip

Temps

 If I characterized the teleconnections in a way that others object, please speak up, it'll create discussion. 🙂

I considered putting all 4 into a composite, but I thought they might Camden each other out in some ways, plus, laying out two possibilities was more fun I think, gives more to talk about.  

 

Cool QBO graphic I assume you made this but where did you happen to find the look for the chart like this I like it! Anyways while WQBo is showing and will descend, tends to be more rapid then EQBo events. I think we have to see how it goes into say end of September early October, for now its a good start of course. My reasoning is we saw a false signal before with the transition of WQBo to EQBO a few years back, still unsure fully why this occurred, but think we may be on the tail end of EQBO event and WQBO taking place for this winter. Which should help keep the Strat PV relatively tame for the beginning portion and maybe try to strengthen it towards the end but who knows the damage might already have been done from the first half of the year. As you state ENSO is kind a of null factor this year while el nino conditions look to strike up the WWB events have been all but gone and stagnation is still happening in the MJO plots with minor events surely not enough to fully push us into weak/moderate status, this could change in a matter of a month too so something to watch. If we do manage I think weak is the name of the game this year.

 

Other than that no real issues with the data presented another thing to note though is when we go through these transitions of QBO I wonder if they throw some wilder patterns in there. We may experience more WAF from the lower strato/tropo action this year allowing sometimes break-ups of the PV from below but a stronger core the further up you go to about 10mb.Im not sure though we have a strong enough weakening of the PV to fully break it this year though just depends on how quickly things change up. This will be interesting to watch of course and will be starting the PV thread probably this week, have to gather all the info from my flash drive and various computers lol. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×