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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

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As I didn't notice a thread for the small disturbance that is moving through the Ohio valley, I am posting this here.  What was to be a dusting to a half inch IMBY of Moraine, 1.5 inches of snow has fallen.  First measurable snow here.

 

image.png.135e7673bcc49fff30c6479d51815c2f.png

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27 minutes ago, RobB said:

As I didn't notice a thread for the small disturbance that is moving through the Ohio valley, I am posting this here.  What was to be a dusting to a half inch IMBY of Moraine, 1.5 inches of snow has fallen.  First measurable snow here.

 

image.png.135e7673bcc49fff30c6479d51815c2f.png

Congrats buddy, that's a decent first snowfall. Hopefully only the beginning of many for the winter!

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23 hours ago, RobB said:

12/3 Euro 46 Day (weeklies) 5 day 500 millibar loop

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom.gif

There's some impressive blocking signatures by early to mid January that show up. Will be interesting to see if that pans out!

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1 hour ago, weather_boy2010 said:

Congrats buddy, that's a decent first snowfall. Hopefully only the beginning of many for the winter!

Thank you, WB!

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12/5 0Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.a0a692903fd7912e70526577f569980f.png

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12/5 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom (1).gif

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32 minutes ago, bvrdgpa said:

Where's Barney these days? Appears to be absent.

I am okay not seeing Barney this time of year. Given that we are headed into the coldest averages of the year, even above average temps can still equate to snow sub-freezing temps. I suspect that we will see his presence at least a time or two following the New Year.

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Agreed, a little early for him to come out of hiding although thought he would show his face in the northern tier by now. Or maybe even just his shadow...

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12/5 12Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.45c54ac64dfebf9237cf57179db213c6.png

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16 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/5 12Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.45c54ac64dfebf9237cf57179db213c6.png

Just me...or is it extemely rare to see that much purple on the NAEFS map?? They trying to get away from all the white that would dominate those maps?

Edited by telejunkie
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A tame, uneventful December would please me.   

Last half of October and nearly all of November were colder than average.  And local NWS is forecasting a nasty backloaded winter.  

So an "easy" (relatively speaking) December would be nice.  I'm out of step with like 99% of the population where I'd be perfectly fine with "green" holidays.  Makes commuting around this hectic time of year a lot easier. 

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12/5 CPC 8 to 14 Day

image.thumb.png.ee21889433f529531205e90cc5fcd0f1.png

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12/5 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(2).gif

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SOI matches for Sept-Nov included 1953 as a top year. For 12/1-12/5, its not bad, I'd call it 80%. I know the placement of the magnitudes are off, but its five days, and from three numbers. You have intense cold int he West, and the East warm around the cold core.

SOI Sept Oct Nov
1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7
2018 -8.5 2.6 -0.9

DObAUYD.png

Edited by raindancewx

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4 hours ago, RobB said:

12/5 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(2).gif

Can we talk for just a minute about how impressive those positive anomalies are in the north? I mean, wow, after such a long period of BA conditions, this will be a welcome change for many I think. I'm glad we aren't seeing those kinds of anomalies, yet at least, over the lower 48.

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4 hours ago, MotownWX said:

A tame, uneventful December would please me.   

Last half of October and nearly all of November were colder than average.  And local NWS is forecasting a nasty backloaded winter.  

So an "easy" (relatively speaking) December would be nice.  I'm out of step with like 99% of the population where I'd be perfectly fine with "green" holidays.  Makes commuting around this hectic time of year a lot easier. 

I definitely don't think they're wrong. Seems the signs are pointing towards such a winter. While I don't like major storms to snarl up travel for such a time, I do like to see some snow on the ground when the big man comes to visit on the 25th.

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On 12/4/2018 at 10:35 AM, Poconosnow said:

The bsr and SOI composite are targeting approximately the 25th for a large trough 

the frames for the 24-25 are not loaded yet but here is the 23rd 12z

E4285EFE-0BEA-467C-B917-E369F801628D.gif.39112bfac779af18b1dd9864fc8d6458.gif536A785B-7BAF-49D1-A4A8-BA8937E31670.gif.1650f357931453960a1b47a66fec8636.gif

also here is the SOI composite posted by @jdrenken valid Dec 23-24th detailed by an abrupt Soi rise on the 28th0543A2A6-3ABD-4DDA-93DB-417991AC9ABF.thumb.jpeg.fdd7ec19b3efd8027ab34b6fe50ca047.jpeg

11207C1C-AFF9-4988-AEDC-C66D3C4CB38B.thumb.jpeg.00d4c40681245a79186b6d626c28cae1.jpeg

The future bsr frames will show a transfer off the coast 

here is the loop of the Christmas signal 

02CD7A75-1728-40E4-B53E-68F76E3655D4.thumb.gif.e6816b454bca03ab7e61bfac6167f764.gif

the wpc overlays should be created soon. Will post.

Here is current Christmas bsr loop for the 22-26th.  Ill prolly update with last last couple frames once they run. 

07C1CBA0-57AE-42E6-8FF7-1E666CF33EF4.gif

Edited by Poconosnow
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For 12/1-12/5 the SOI is +8.

Back to 1950, there are no El Ninos with a December SOI reading of more than +2.3. If we finish above that level, will be interesting to see what kind of weird pattern emerges. The SOI, when positive in December, tends to favor a lot of heat in the SE in December. I'd imagine it will come down by 12/31, at least somewhat, but it may not. Something to watch. Part of why March 2018 went batty in the NE this year I think is because you had a pretty healthy La Nina, AND a big -SOI reading in February. Those two things are a massive contradiction, I think it was the lowest February SOI reading in a La Nina since 1931 when I looked, with Feb 1986, a near-Nina, close by in terms of contradiction. I find with these maps, the darker greens and blues generally hold up pretty well, with the lighter areas hit or miss. But obviously we have to see where the Dec SOI finishes.

eMbb38q.png

The lowest Dec SOI reading since 1931 is about -30. The middle 80% of Decembers are between about -13 and +13. So I'd say (+8*5 days)+(-13*26) is a fairly realistic low bound, about -10, and then  +12 is a fairly realistic high bound. A lot of the El Ninos idealized for cold and snow ended up way below -10 in December - 1940, 1963, 1976, 1977,  2002, and one of my favorites, 1972 is on there too. The ECMWF depiction of the South Pacific doesn't look like a like -SOI pattern to me through the next five days, so -10 for December may already be pretty tenuous. If you put a gun to my head, I'd maybe guess -3 to +5 for December, which is similar to these Decembers -

Dec SOI
1969 +2.3
1965 +0.3
1968 +0.3
1957 -4.3
2006 -5.3
1953 -5.8
1987 -5.8

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This is pretty close to what I was expecting at times later in December, although I don't necessarily buy the magnitudes. If you like the cold, the good news is I don't think this part of the pattern shows up much after Christmas later in winter, at least until March. 

 

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12/6 0Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.149c86b344d9f4b4e3a007895bad2423.png

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12/6 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(3).gif

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17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For 12/1-12/5 the SOI is +8.

Back to 1950, there are no El Ninos with a December SOI reading of more than +2.3. If we finish above that level, will be interesting to see what kind of weird pattern emerges. The SOI, when positive in December, tends to favor a lot of heat in the SE in December. I'd imagine it will come down by 12/31, at least somewhat, but it may not. Something to watch. Part of why March 2018 went batty in the NE this year I think is because you had a pretty healthy La Nina, AND a big -SOI reading in February. Those two things are a massive contradiction, I think it was the lowest February SOI reading in a La Nina since 1931 when I looked, with Feb 1986, a near-Nina, close by in terms of contradiction. I find with these maps, the darker greens and blues generally hold up pretty well, with the lighter areas hit or miss. But obviously we have to see where the Dec SOI finishes.

eMbb38q.png

The lowest Dec SOI reading since 1931 is about -30. The middle 80% of Decembers are between about -13 and +13. So I'd say (+8*5 days)+(-13*26) is a fairly realistic low bound, about -10, and then  +12 is a fairly realistic high bound. A lot of the El Ninos idealized for cold and snow ended up way below -10 in December - 1940, 1963, 1976, 1977,  2002, and one of my favorites, 1972 is on there too. The ECMWF depiction of the South Pacific doesn't look like a like -SOI pattern to me through the next five days, so -10 for December may already be pretty tenuous. If you put a gun to my head, I'd maybe guess -3 to +5 for December, which is similar to these Decembers -

Dec SOI
1969 +2.3
1965 +0.3
1968 +0.3
1957 -4.3
2006 -5.3
1953 -5.8
1987 -5.8

You might want to reword the top paragraph to match your graphic. The correlation of December SOI to December temperatures is below.

climdivcorr.69.29.15.45.339.7.40.43.prcp

Note the negative correlation encompassing most of the ECONUS. So, if the SOI is negative(positive), the correlation is AN(BN) temperatures over that area.

Below is your graphic, but for US.

climdivcorr.69.29.15.45.339.7.44.48.prcp

So...how one interprets the above map is that if the SOI is negative(positive), then the SE will experience BN(AN) temperatures and the West will experience AN(BN) temperatures.

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12/6 12Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.a0f511f5bf82fa2f1792e140587aa71c.png

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8 hours ago, RobB said:

12/6 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(3).gif

Pacific not looking like it wants to cooperate in the long term....gonna be interesting to see what kind of storm track sets up...

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