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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

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16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is pretty close to what I was expecting at times later in December, although I don't necessarily buy the magnitudes. If you like the cold, the good news is I don't think this part of the pattern shows up much after Christmas later in winter, at least until March. 

 

Mid-January into early March will likely trend well below normal in the East.

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20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For 12/1-12/5 the SOI is +8.

Back to 1950, there are no El Ninos with a December SOI reading of more than +2.3. If we finish above that level, will be interesting to see what kind of weird pattern emerges. The SOI, when positive in December, tends to favor a lot of heat in the SE in December. I'd imagine it will come down by 12/31, at least somewhat, but it may not. Something to watch. Part of why March 2018 went batty in the NE this year I think is because you had a pretty healthy La Nina, AND a big -SOI reading in February. Those two things are a massive contradiction, I think it was the lowest February SOI reading in a La Nina since 1931 when I looked, with Feb 1986, a near-Nina, close by in terms of contradiction. I find with these maps, the darker greens and blues generally hold up pretty well, with the lighter areas hit or miss. But obviously we have to see where the Dec SOI finishes.

eMbb38q.png

The lowest Dec SOI reading since 1931 is about -30. The middle 80% of Decembers are between about -13 and +13. So I'd say (+8*5 days)+(-13*26) is a fairly realistic low bound, about -10, and then  +12 is a fairly realistic high bound. A lot of the El Ninos idealized for cold and snow ended up way below -10 in December - 1940, 1963, 1976, 1977,  2002, and one of my favorites, 1972 is on there too. The ECMWF depiction of the South Pacific doesn't look like a like -SOI pattern to me through the next five days, so -10 for December may already be pretty tenuous. If you put a gun to my head, I'd maybe guess -3 to +5 for December, which is similar to these Decembers -

Dec SOI
1969 +2.3
1965 +0.3
1968 +0.3
1957 -4.3
2006 -5.3
1953 -5.8
1987 -5.8

Whoops, I meant February for the first paragraph, not December.

Edited by raindancewx

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Near-normal temperatures at Christmastime is fine with me. It beats the 75-degree bullshit I had to deal with in 2015 and 2016. Christmas was ruined in 2015 by the humid warmth that felt like the aftermath of a stormy night in May, and was only marginally better in 2016 since the air was a bit drier and it cooled off more at night, though there was still no actual chill in the air.  Last Christmas was OK. The week prior to it was pretty mild, but Christmas itself was seasonably chilly, and after Christmas it got nice and cold. This Christmas, if it can't be cold here, then I at least hope it'll be seasonable for the second year in a row. I'm actually in a Christmas mood in early December for the first time in years, thanks to all the chilly weather. I'm even listening to the local all-Christmas (Adult Contemporary) radio station when I'm out driving.

Edited by Q-Zar

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17 hours ago, RobB said:

12/6 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(3).gif

There doesn't appear to be any Southeast/South Atlantic ridge asserting itself in the next two weeks, so I hope that this verifies. I don't mind if it gets mild for a day or two, as long as the temperature gets knocked back down in short order. I'm sick and tired of extended periods of winter warmth. I've dealt with at least one in each of the previous three winters.

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4 hours ago, Q-Zar said:

Near-normal temperatures at Christmastime is fine with me. It beats the 75-degree bullshit I had to deal with in 2015 and 2016. Christmas was ruined in 2015 by the humid warmth that felt like the aftermath of a stormy night in May, and was only marginally better in 2016 since the air was a bit drier and it cooled off more at night, though there was still no actual chill in the air.  Last Christmas was OK. The week prior to it was pretty mild, but Christmas itself was seasonably chilly, and after Christmas it got nice and cold. This Christmas, if it can't be cold here, then I at least hope it'll be seasonable for the second year in a row. I'm actually in a Christmas mood in early December for the first time in years, thanks to all the chilly weather. I'm even listening to the local all-Christmas (Adult Contemporary) radio station when I'm out driving.

I will gladly celebrate Christmas at your house and you can celebrate at mine.

I would swap a palm tree for a pine tree any day.

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12/7 0Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.60098c988d444f67f683cb005fb832b0.png

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12/7 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(4).gif

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12/6 Euro 46 day (weeklies) 5 day 500 millibar and 5 day 2 meter temp anomaly loops:

 

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom(1).gif

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-d Avg T2M Anom [C](1).gif

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2 hours ago, Grace said:

Screenshot_20181207-063901.jpg

Definitely has a basin-wide look to it, with the more substantial anomalies even west-based.

Edited by weather_boy2010

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38 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/6 Euro 46 day (weeklies) 5 day 500 millibar and 5 day 2 meter temp anomaly loops:

 

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom(1).gif

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-d Avg T2M Anom [C](1).gif

Brr, January is looking cold!

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I swear I live in a black hole for snow. Every time there is snow forecast it freakin' disappears and turns into rainy days. Accuweather has 3 days of snow forecast still though but Weather Underground and TWC have almost 0 snow. 

I just want a nice big snow, is that too much to ask? lol

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12/7 12Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.56c0eb3175b5543b1ade5d2e5f897129.png

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As I remember many using as a winter this one could look like, this year is really starting to look like winter 2014-15 IMBY. Both featured a well below normal Nov with above normal snowfall (though not by much) and a December that looks to feature a long stretch of at or above normal temps with very little snowfall. At least we've had 2 inches of snow so far this December instead of a dusting like in 2014 lol, but looking at the long range models there is a chance we could go a long stretch without snow, much like in Dec 2014.

Edited by bradjl2009
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6 hours ago, weather_boy2010 said:

Brr, January is looking cold!

If only the weeklies verification could be taken seriously. :classic_biggrin:

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Here is a look at how well the subsurface analogs did for November. I use the 1979-2017 subsurface data (top 300m), 100W-180W, for three months to replicate the most recent year. This is November replicated v. actual - the numbers are total subsurface warmth in 100W-180W against 1981-2010 averages by month.

Subsurface August Sept October
2002 1.05 1.41 1.72
2002 1.05 1.41 1.72
2002 1.05 1.41 1.72
1991 0.49 0.6 1.41
1991 0.49 0.6 1.41
Mean 0.83 1.09 1.60
2018 0.81 1.12 1.59

i9PfsSd.png

These were the years I used for Sept, Oct, Nov to try to get Dec. Looked fairly close to what I had forecast in Dec back in Oct, which I find encouraging with a warm up telegraphed on the models, MJO and by CPC (6-10, 8-14, week 3-4 all have warmth in the East).

Year Sept Oct Nov
1982 1.86 2.07 1.92
1982 1.86 2.07 1.92
1986 0.65 0.95 0.52
1991 0.60 1.41 1.22
1991 0.60 1.41 1.22
1994 0.70 1.12 1.16
2002 1.41 1.72 1.58
2002 1.41 1.72 1.58
Mean 1.14 1.56 1.39
2018 1.12 1.58 1.36

GmBxQj8.png

For January, it seems like the subsurface is weakening in December. Tentatively like something like this - obviously subject to change and not my forecast, but I think the subsurface numbers will be close to this in December. The national data is very sensitive to the subsurface, so if Dec is higher or lower, the blend will produce an entirely different configuration. I probably am off at least a bit, given that big +NAO Octobers tend to be cold in AZ and CA the following January.

Year Oct Nov Dec
2018 1.58 1.36 1.15
1982 2.07 1.92 1.45
1986 0.95 0.52 0.97
1991 1.41 1.22 1.71
2002 1.72 1.58 0.74
2002 1.72 1.58 0.74
Mean 1.57 1.36 1.12

eooQ4ss.png

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RRWT has been pretty volatile but it has been hinting at a very cold JAN. And Here's 500mb, precip, temps mean from now to March 7th. Pretty interesting. Just something else to toy with

 

Screenshot_20181207-222306.jpg

Screenshot_20181207-222332.jpg

Screenshot_20181207-222348.jpg

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Well, this is a bummer.  Hopefully another researcher picks it up from Dr. Wolter.

End of the MEI update.

Now for the big news: I will be retiring from my position at the end of December 2018. The future of the MEI is not settled yet, stay tuned, it will be announced on this website. If it continues in some fashion, it will probably be updated less frequently, and based on reanalysis data rather than ICOADS. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing moderate warm SST anomalies (+1C or higher from 160E to 90W along the Equator, and recently building westerly wind anomalies from the dateline to 150W along and north of the Equator. This confirms the increased likelihood of El Niño conditions in the near future.

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10 hours ago, Grace said:

RRWT has been pretty volatile but it has been hinting at a very cold JAN. And Here's 500mb, precip, temps mean from now to March 7th. Pretty interesting. Just something else to toy with

 

Screenshot_20181207-222306.jpg

Screenshot_20181207-222332.jpg

Screenshot_20181207-222348.jpg

Very interesting indeed. It would seem to confirm what many are thinking though for the January/February time-frame.

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Well, this is a bummer.  Hopefully another researcher picks it up from Dr. Wolter.

End of the MEI update.

 

 

This stinks!!

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12/8 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom (2).gif

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30 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/8 0Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.e2a67bb20485543f792b14ca93e45a39.png

This is only one model, correct? I've noticed it's been very consistent in predicting near normal temps lately while in the same period, the CPC likes the idea of it being above normal.

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