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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

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1 hour ago, Grace said:

0z EPS is as lost as I've ever seen it for days 6-10. I'd bet the farm it's just plain wrong.

The EPS and GEFS are nearly opposite for day 10...

eps_z500a_noram_41.thumb.png.fca0dfa6b0e827feb6fa024329b34b12.png

gefs_z500a_noram_41.thumb.png.b9e6449915e43581a624f74e34766c4d.png

Based on the BSR, I'm leaning towards the GEFS.

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3 hours ago, weather_boy2010 said:

The EPS and GEFS are nearly opposite for day 10...

eps_z500a_noram_41.thumb.png.fca0dfa6b0e827feb6fa024329b34b12.png

gefs_z500a_noram_41.thumb.png.b9e6449915e43581a624f74e34766c4d.png

Based on the BSR, I'm leaning towards the GEFS.

I could see the EPO taking a total plunge once we head into the Christmas-New Year's period.

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26 minutes ago, Grace said:

Screenshot_20181214-115158_Twitter.jpg

I know we all hate looking beyond day ten, but I'm going to humor the GFS for just a hot second. Check out where it has the position of the PV at day 12...

gfs_t10a_nh_51.thumb.png.4a4b590da08b99505eac0eb7483944fd.png

That's, uh, impressive, to say the very least. Would be one hell of a ride in January if that verified!

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7 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

I know we all hate looking beyond day ten, but I'm going to humor the GFS for just a hot second. Check out where it has the position of the PV at day 12...

gfs_t10a_nh_51.thumb.png.4a4b590da08b99505eac0eb7483944fd.png

That's, uh, impressive, to say the very least. Would be one hell of a ride in January if that verified!

And then shows another even bigger warming event by the end of the month. Again, take it with a grain of salt, but it's interesting to see, to say the very least.

gfs_t10a_nh_65.thumb.png.0d671b2b78ad5b07ad737f36dc7a5a7a.png

Edited by weather_boy2010
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42 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

And then shows another even bigger warming event by the end of the month. Again, take it with a grain of salt, but it's interesting to see, to say the very least.

gfs_t10a_nh_65.thumb.png.0d671b2b78ad5b07ad737f36dc7a5a7a.png

Maximum anomaly of +79.9ºC :classic_laugh:

I'm not sure a grain of salt is enough. Perhaps a vat of molten salt is more appropriate in this instance.

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12/14 12Z NAEFS:

NAEFS Coverage

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On SSW's & troposphere impacts. It's easy to get excited about the possibility of an SSW but just a reminder that if you study displacements or splits from past its unreal how unpredictable impacts really are. Hopefully impacts will be on the colder and wintry side in the CONUS, but it's certainly not a given.

Edited by Grace
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52 minutes ago, Grace said:

On SSW's & troposphere impacts. It's easy to get excited about the possibility of an SSW but just a reminder that if you study displacements or splits from past its unreal how unpredictable impacts really are. Hopefully impacts will be on the colder and wintry side in the CONUS, but it's certainly not a given.

...and with some of the crazy things that have happened lately, nothing would surprise me at this point!

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Looked at every +ENSO since 1950 for October 1 - December 13. No matter if it were weak positive ENSO, weak, moderate, strong, or super El Nino. The closest matches I found wete:

1952

1957

1976

1979

2002

2014

All of these years but 1952-53 had cold Jan-Feb.

Here's the January-February composite for those years:

 

Screenshot_20181214-153022.jpg

 

What does this mean? Maybe nothing...but interesting nonetheless.

Edited by Grace

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Take it another step....what did Tropical Pacific anomalies look like in those years for November-December?

 

Screenshot_20181214-155840.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-155913.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-155955.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-160047.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-160133.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-160205.jpg

Edited by Grace

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Here's the 500mb for December for those years:

 

Screenshot_20181214-160637.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-160706.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-160748.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-161021.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-161126.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-161206.jpg

Edited by Grace
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7 hours ago, Grace said:

On SSW's & troposphere impacts. It's easy to get excited about the possibility of an SSW but just a reminder that if you study displacements or splits from past its unreal how unpredictable impacts really are. Hopefully impacts will be on the colder and wintry side in the CONUS, but it's certainly not a given.

I was discussing in a group fb message how there have been multiple SSWe that produced absolutely nothing for the CONUS and went into Asia, or Europe, instead.

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Apart from SSW, I'm convinced after going through week to week progression of patterns through El Nino years that we will have "some type" of version of the Jan/FEB blend of the years I posted earlier. The odds are much higher the east U.S. is colder than normal overall than warmer than normal. With that said, while probability is "low" we see warmer than normal east, anything can happen. This is an odd year in many regards, so who knows.

The fall progression is just "not" one that normally ends warm in JAN & FEB. Not one single warmer Nino Jan/Feb winters had a similar progression. That's very encouraging if you like winter. With that said that does not mean we end up with brutal cold & snowy.

I'm done! :classic_smile:

Edited by Grace

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4 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Look at that PV:classic_blink:

urdktZx.png

F5BWXNp.png

A8Ey95O.png

Better stock up on vodka, Russians. :classic_ohmy:

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15 hours ago, RobB said:

12/14 12Z NAEFS:

NAEFS Coverage

Near-normal temperatures at Christmastime is fine with me. It means no 75-degree bullshit like I got in 2015 and 2016.

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