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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

shaulov4

Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion OBS

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1/9 CPC 8 to 14 day

image.thumb.png.e37b0209ed938d2e788829f783f203a5.pngimage.thumb.png.886456dd07931b410ca7bd2b3ea128ba.png

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EPS 15 day anomaly

ecmwfa1ec-tmp--usmercator-360-C-2mtempanom_totf_whitecounty.thumb.png.841ec0f8d085735b116b40885b6fa605.png

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Euros out for the next month

Good news/bad news..  but I guess it depends on perspective.

The "good" is that there is some serious cold coming at the end of the month in the Euro ecmwfa2f12-hgtprs-850-conus-504-C-850t.thumb.png.11e46b96abeaeb6f76a6ae601761bcc8.png

ecmwfa2f12-hgtprs-850-conus-564-C-850t.thumb.png.d820350f62978d1d9262ddd785aec874.png

The "bad" news is its gone after groundhog day.

ecmwfa2f12-hgtprs-850-conus-684-C-850t.thumb.png.75bca1d311151c83d1cc99ef7a59c402.png

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Not a lot of action on the LR Euro either (focusing eastern half of CONUS) - less than one interesting storm per week.

ecmwfa2f-hgtprs--conus-318-C-mslp.thumb.png.f6de8f2d9fe592abb7035f5fc1732e27.png

ecmwfa2f-hgtprs--conus-534-C-mslp.thumb.png.33a5d7a9ad7d595f4a948cdefb207974.png

 

ecmwfa2f-hgtprs--conus-738-C-mslp.thumb.png.d8ecddeb12b0731ca787c3cb346aa18c.png

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1 hour ago, MotownWX said:

We were living on borrowed time with the strong Pacific jet, figured Eastern CONUS had to get hit at some point.  December and early January were payback for us getting robbed of half of Fall. 

If Spring arrives on time (unlike 2018), this winter will go down as tolerable and tame if all the 'action' begins ~January 21.  I'm alright with a 6 week winter.  And even when the cold blast hits, those big-time synoptic systems might get suppressed to the Appalachians/East Coast, leaving SEMI with a few clippers and strands of lake effect. 

 

I agree but with each of the years where it goes off the charts cold in Jan or Feb, it has lingered into March, April, and May in some cases.

Off the charts = 6-10 degrees below normal for weeks at a time.

If we left above normal temps and went to normal temps, then great.  I know the long range is iffy it looks likes lots of days in low to mid 20's for highs when your high should start climbing throughout Feb and Mar.

 

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2 hours ago, RobB said:

image.png.b1e668b25ddcb0ebd30662164ce908f4.png

 

Source

Sorry, but I'm having trouble taking Ben seriously. Strong cold shots with all of Canada in red?!?!?!? :huh-2:

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1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Sorry, but I'm having trouble taking Ben seriously. Strong cold shots with all of Canada in red?!?!?!? :huh-2:

Ben has made a name for himself to show all of the cold solutions since November for this winter so far.

On a different note, getting word that a certain consulting company is pushing a +TNH pattern. Too bad there is a consistent trough over the GOA and off the west coast.

tnh_correlation_map.gif

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1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Sorry, but I'm having trouble taking Ben seriously. Strong cold shots with all of Canada in red?!?!?!? :huh-2:

I failed to notice the reds in Canada on that :) 

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1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Sorry, but I'm having trouble taking Ben seriously. Strong cold shots with all of Canada in red?!?!?!? :huh-2:

 

10 minutes ago, RobB said:

I failed to notice the reds in Canada on that :) 

To be fair red in northern Canada would still = deep purple in the lower 48 :classic_laugh:

The 12z GFS as a whole is finally probably the best looking run of the entire winter from start to finish, bolded being the operative word missing from prior "best" looking runs

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6 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

 

To be fair red in northern Canada would still = deep purple in the lower 48 :classic_laugh:

The 12z GFS as a whole is finally probably the best looking run of the entire winter from start to finish, bolded being the operative word missing from prior "best" looking runs

Yeah, I'm really curious how the active stj and ssw event will interact. I don't buy the bitter cold in the eastern US story, but I wouldn't be surprised to see frequent snow chances. Cold weather isn't worth it without snow anyways.

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1/10 12Z GEFS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

GEFS Ensembles North America 2-m Temperature Anom.gif

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1/10 12Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.e83baa58af5ca81ab350fb1df5479cc3.png

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1/10 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:
 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(1).gif

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I'm going on record and sticking my neck out, but I honestly believe that there will be (at least) one blockbuster snow event in the EUS before the end of Feb (after that, I still leaning on an early Spring arrival).

I am really encouraged by what I see as a bit of a pattern recognition for cold to (finally) do more than "glance by". That H5 anom look posted earlier suggest CPF to my way of looking at things. Combined with that I don't think the active storm string is going to go away in any big way and it's "only" a matter of time until the right combination comes on stage. The super duper "out there" prediction would be to try to pin a date - but I'm leaning towards the last week of Jan or first week of Feb to hold the best opportunity for such a "mesh". That's not to say decent or important winter storms won't happen at some other time - just that I like the odds of it happening when I believe it will. 

For now, so long as my friend from Anchorage keeps sending me "snow scapes" from her BY, I've tempered my expectation for EUS. I have a feeling (based on temp and height anom looks in spaghetti) that will not last too much longer. When they go warm, it should help "game on" over this way. 

f372.thumb.gif.1ffb88ef61731d90f77d9f8edf8f7f52.gif

I'm getting to long in the tooth to enjoy cold and snow - but I do like it when the seasons act "normal", so I have to speak from that "honest" perspective - leaving personal bias out of it. 

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Some statistics IMBY, last winter vs. this winter to this date. I find the # of days with more than 1" of snow on the ground particularly startling.


Snowfall: 24.8" vs. 8.4"
Days with at least a T of snowfall: 9 vs. 15
Maximum snowdepth: 13.0" vs. 7.0"
# storms > 1": 6 vs. 1
# storms > 2": 2 vs. 1
# storms > 4": 2 vs. 1
# storms > 6": 2 vs. 1
# storms > 8": 1 vs. 0
# days with more than 1" of snow on ground: 23 vs. 5
# days with more than 2" of snow on ground: 15 vs. 3
# days with more than 6" of snow on ground: 8 vs. 1
# days with more than 8" of snow on ground: 7 vs. 0
# days with more than 12" of snow on ground: 4 vs. 0

 

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Because YOU asked for it!  Well, no, no one did that :)

 

1/10 Euro Weeklies.

 

14-km EPS 46-DAYS Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom.gif

14-km EPS 46-DAYS Northern Hemisphere 5-d Avg T2M Anom [C].gif

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8 hours ago, Al_Cvervik said:

I agree but with each of the years where it goes off the charts cold in Jan or Feb, it has lingered into March, April, and May in some cases.

Off the charts = 6-10 degrees below normal for weeks at a time.

If we left above normal temps and went to normal temps, then great.  I know the long range is iffy it looks likes lots of days in low to mid 20's for highs when your high should start climbing throughout Feb and Mar.

 

As much as I do not like below normal weather at any time of the year, I'd rather we see below normal temps in February than in March-April just because I'm getting tired of delayed springs after five of the past six years. 

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On 1/9/2019 at 7:04 PM, Al_Cvervik said:

Hopefully the warmth can hang on.  Not looking forward to 2-3 months of 6-10 degrees below normal everyday.

In El Nino winters, February is usually the coldest winter month relative to normal in the Great Lakes (Although 2015-16, 2009-10, and 1997-98 which were relatively strong Nino's were exceptions to that rule, at least where I am). Weaker ones, in particular, like this one, may often start mild but then get cold in February (Like in 2014-15, 2006-07, 1994-95, 1987-88).

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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11 hours ago, MotownWX said:

We were living on borrowed time with the strong Pacific jet, figured Eastern CONUS had to get hit at some point.  December and early January were payback for us getting robbed of half of Fall. 

If Spring arrives on time (unlike 2018), this winter will go down as tolerable and tame if all the 'action' begins ~January 21.  I'm alright with a 6 week winter.  And even when the cold blast hits, those big-time synoptic systems might get suppressed to the Appalachians/East Coast, leaving SEMI with a few clippers and strands of lake effect. 

 

I also think that with December being solidly above normal, and with January likely ending at least a little bit above normal, February would have to do a 2015 or 2014 to make the three month period below normal in the Great Lakes.

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10 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Euros out for the next month

Good news/bad news..  but I guess it depends on perspective.

The "good" is that there is some serious cold coming at the end of the month in the Euro ecmwfa2f12-hgtprs-850-conus-504-C-850t.thumb.png.11e46b96abeaeb6f76a6ae601761bcc8.png

ecmwfa2f12-hgtprs-850-conus-564-C-850t.thumb.png.d820350f62978d1d9262ddd785aec874.png

The "bad" news is its gone after groundhog day.

ecmwfa2f12-hgtprs-850-conus-684-C-850t.thumb.png.75bca1d311151c83d1cc99ef7a59c402.png

Any decent moisture coming with that cold? I just want spring to arrive. 70 days!

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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51 minutes ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

As much as I do not like below normal weather at any time of the year, I'd rather we see below normal temps in February than in March-April just because I'm getting tired of delayed springs after five of the past six years. 

I will be so livid if thats the case again this year.

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1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said:

I will be so livid if thats the case again this year.

I've read a few forecasts that don't support such an idea. I believe one of them was from Cranky. Thus far the only pro met I've personally observed calling for that has been JB.

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Dwl1o-MU8AE3aH4.jpg:large

Euro update has El Nino conditions as highly likely through at least Spring. If the ONI value comes in around +0.7C or so for MAM, you can use the stronger El Ninos as analogs, only around 10 El Ninos are +0.7C or above in MAM. Our friends in Australia had this look for December - they use their own Aussie data against 1961-1990.

Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific

January 1998 was pretty warm nationally and if you look at the BOM archives for the MJO, the MJO was at a nearly identical spot in January 1998 as in January 2019. The parade of cold little storms in late Dec 1997 and late Dec 2018 was very similar here, with the MJO transitioning from 5 to 6 around 12/31.

gMzil5r.png

Edited by raindancewx

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