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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

shaulov4

Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion OBS

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Hail, lightning, downpours, blizzards, double rainbows, fog, and lot of weird clouds. Just another year in New Mexico weather -

 

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11 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

As much as I do not like below normal weather at any time of the year, I'd rather we see below normal temps in February than in March-April just because I'm getting tired of delayed springs after five of the past six years. 

I see it like this.  Warmth or normal temps get erased in next couple of weeks, then cold air digs in and stays put.  I expect that the Great Lakes region might see normal temps again towards latter half of April.

Like your quote above, this has happened most years since 2011-2012 winter.

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1/11 0Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.0a517e98241b13831d0fdfc69a6c2723.png

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1/11 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(2).gif

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From this morning's NWS GRR (Grand Rapids):

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Quote

Sunday through Tuesday still look quiet and unseasonable warm with
highs in the low to mid 30s and ample opportunities to get a peek of
the sun.

The average January high for Grand Rapids is 31.  So it's interesting they use the "unseasonably warm" language to describe low-to-mid 30s.  It's essentially average to slightly above average.  

I'm wondering if perspective has shifted for the ECONUS/Midwest, where long frigid cold snaps have occurred more frequently in recent winters where the W-E dipole comes into play, especially during those "pacific warm blob" winters.  I remember during those times where I'd see a forecast of 32/33 pop up and think, "wow, that's balmy", when it's really just normal.  

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1 hour ago, Al_Cvervik said:

I see it like this.  Warmth or normal temps get erased in next couple of weeks, then cold air digs in and stays put.  I expect that the Great Lakes region might see normal temps again towards latter half of April.

Like your quote above, this has happened most years since 2011-2012 winter.

This is when we cross our fingers and hope the CFS weeklies are correct.  They show the cold spell for the Eastern CONUS, but it weakens and things get back to normal-ish by mid-February, whereas Europe gets the true long lasting brunt of it.  If that's the case, I'm fine.  Just don't want a 'Spring' 2018 repeat.  

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It's great they gave us a model that is trigger happy with HLB. It's fun to see all the different ways you can get extreme cold, every single run.

w7zLOeO.png

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8-14 day as of 1/10/18. An improvement if you live in the NE quarter of the US and like winter.

aaaaa.PNG

Edited by Hiramite

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51 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It's great they gave us a model that is trigger happy with HLB. It's fun to see all the different ways you can get extreme cold, every single run.

 

I assume HLB is High Latitude Blocking?  If so, @StretchCT, can it be added to the glossary?

aa11.PNG

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16 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I assume HLB is High Latitude Blocking?  If so, @StretchCT, can it be added to the glossary?

aa11.PNG

HLB is a new one for me.  Can   @ClicheVortex2014 confirm?  Actually Cliche, if you have time, can you elaborate on blocking?  Its something that I never seem to be able to identify.  In this case, looking through animations, everything seems to be flowing through just fine.  And while the 500mb heights are above normal over Greenland (which I'm not sure that's your reference), do they stay?  And the EPS has it too, which is why I don't think I'm looking in the right place.  Thanks.

ecmwfa1ec-hgt--namericawide-360-C-500hgtanom_1d.thumb.png.49097036cebc93112010e59580a1f9c9.png

 

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Cold

ecmwfa1ec-no2Tsfc--conus-360-C-tmp2mfk2.thumb.png.18b04a20f336c4a5911a9b0e487247a2.png

ecmwfa1ec-tmp--conus-360-C-2mtempanom_1df.thumb.png.ad440c0a5972aada303c03818ff0b53a.png

1pm temps - close up on NE

ecmwfa1ec-no2Tsfc--usne-354-C-tmp2mfk2.thumb.png.24bd19e35912fc70a73714142c9a28b4.png

 

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1/11 12Z GEFS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

GEFS Ensembles North America 2-m Temperature Anom(1).gif

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1/11 12Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.64e66e43a2dd71358902f2ae332b5d4e.png

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

HLB is a new one for me.  Can   @ClicheVortex2014 confirm?  Actually Cliche, if you have time, can you elaborate on blocking?  Its something that I never seem to be able to identify.  In this case, looking through animations, everything seems to be flowing through just fine.  And while the 500mb heights are above normal over Greenland (which I'm not sure that's your reference), do they stay?  And the EPS has it too, which is why I don't think I'm looking in the right place.  Thanks.

ecmwfa1ec-hgt--namericawide-360-C-500hgtanom_1d.thumb.png.49097036cebc93112010e59580a1f9c9.png

 

Sorry guys, yeah HLB means high latitude blocking. It's just a fancy term for what happens as a result of high pressures in the higher latitudes. In other words, HLB results from -AO/-NAO.  

(To go to the basics, high pressure/ridging in the Arctic or Greenland causes lower pressures/troughing in the mid-latitudes, as seen in the FV3-GFS I posted. Furthermore, when a weather system matures, it naturally wants to move north and east... but when there's high pressure there, the system can't move north so it can get stuck, blocking the system and causing a prolonged period of cold weather)

And yeah Stretch, that's HLB in the form of -NAO. That kind of pattern would trap the trough for a while. The trifecta of HLB would be -EPO (Alaskan ridge)/-NAO (Greenland ridge)/-AO (ridge through the North Pole). That's just a very negative NAO with a slightly negative AO... but the pattern constitutes high latitude blocking due to the Greenland ridge

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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1 hour ago, RobB said:

1/11 12Z GEFS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

GEFS Ensembles North America 2-m Temperature Anom(1).gif

Winter finally showing up.... Bit late to the party.

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16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Sorry guys, yeah HLB means high latitude blocking. It's just a fancy term for what happens as a result of high pressures in the higher latitudes. In other words, HLB results from -AO/-NAO.  

(To go to the basics, high pressure/ridging in the Arctic or Greenland causes lower pressures/troughing in the mid-latitudes, as seen in the FV3-GFS I posted. Furthermore, when a weather system matures, it naturally wants to move north and east... but when there's high pressure there, the system can't move north so it can get stuck, blocking the system and causing a prolonged period of cold weather)

And yeah Stretch, that's HLB in the form of -NAO. That kind of pattern would trap the trough for a while. The trifecta of HLB would be -EPO (Alaskan ridge)/-NAO (Greenland ridge)/-AO (ridge through the North Pole). That's just a very negative NAO with a slightly negative AO... but the pattern constitutes high latitude blocking due to the Greenland ridge

Thanks - I updated the glossary. I can see the block much more on the 12z run than in the 6z run. 

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6 hours ago, MotownWX said:

From this morning's NWS GRR (Grand Rapids):

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

The average January high for Grand Rapids is 31.  So it's interesting they use the "unseasonably warm" language to describe low-to-mid 30s.  It's essentially average to slightly above average.  

I'm wondering if perspective has shifted for the ECONUS/Midwest, where long frigid cold snaps have occurred more frequently in recent winters where the W-E dipole comes into play, especially during those "pacific warm blob" winters.  I remember during those times where I'd see a forecast of 32/33 pop up and think, "wow, that's balmy", when it's really just normal.  

Haha.. the misuse of the "unseasonably" by the NWS in their forecasts is one of my pet peeves.    We will have record cold in January or record heat in July and I will see forecasters write its "unseasonably cold" or "unseasonably hot."  It is not!!!   A week of 110 degree heat in July would never be unseasonably hot, even if it's record-breaking heat.   JULY is THE SEASON for HEAT!  Lol.

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As the earlier GEFS looked, the newest run of the Euro EPS is col cold.

1/11 12Z Euro 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(3).gif

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50 minutes ago, RobB said:

As the earlier GEFS looked, the newest run of the Euro EPS is col cold.

1/11 12Z Euro 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(3).gif

Don't want that. After missing out on this weekends storm that indicates even more suppression.

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On 1/10/2019 at 2:10 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The storm around the 20th is looking interesting. GFS would be a terrible situation with 4" of rain falling over areas that are about to get 6-12" of snow this weekend. As if that's not bad enough, very cold temps get ushered in quickly so things could get icy afterwards. On the other hand, the cold sector gets some heavy snow. The parent longwave trough is hovering just to its north, so there's real potential for the storm track to get suppressed. 

zV7NXPB.png

Hmmm maybe i could see what you are saying with supression situation but heights out ahead of that would suggest otherwise. Talk about cold though!

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6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It's great they gave us a model that is trigger happy with HLB. It's fun to see all the different ways you can get extreme cold, every single run.

w7zLOeO.png

Well been awhile since I have seen a troughing pattern like that lol I think the last time was 2009 season.

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9 hours ago, MotownWX said:

This is when we cross our fingers and hope the CFS weeklies are correct.  They show the cold spell for the Eastern CONUS, but it weakens and things get back to normal-ish by mid-February, whereas Europe gets the true long lasting brunt of it.  If that's the case, I'm fine.  Just don't want a 'Spring' 2018 repeat.  

On the other hand, EPAWA predicts that February 2019 will be between 5F to 9F BELOW normal in Eastern PA. I know it is not Michigan or Southern Ontario, but it is still close enough that our departures are usually very similar. The only exception I can think of is February 2010, which was actually slightly above normal in my neck of the woods, but well below normal anywhere south of Cleveland. 2009-10 was pretty harsh in Europe.

http://epawaweather.com/long-range-outlook/

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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9 hours ago, MotownWX said:

From this morning's NWS GRR (Grand Rapids):

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

The average January high for Grand Rapids is 31.  So it's interesting they use the "unseasonably warm" language to describe low-to-mid 30s.  It's essentially average to slightly above average.  

I'm wondering if perspective has shifted for the ECONUS/Midwest, where long frigid cold snaps have occurred more frequently in recent winters where the W-E dipole comes into play, especially during those "pacific warm blob" winters.  I remember during those times where I'd see a forecast of 32/33 pop up and think, "wow, that's balmy", when it's really just normal.  

I remember getting excited for temps slightly above freezing in early March 2015 after our horrendous February, when those temps are normal for that time of year.

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