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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

shaulov4

Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion OBS

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Had a cold rain from last night through mid morning, around 37F. Above 6,500 feet, all snow. Good news: It washed away all the excessive salting that was there when we didn't hit freezing for a week, and had snow on the ground for 11-days in a row. With today included, I'd say most of NM is now running colder, snowier, and wetter than average since 12/1, in line with canonical El Nino ideas, at least what people thought before 2014-15 and 2015-16.

Most of the mountains have 30-50 inch bases for skiing -  https://www.skinewmexico.com/snow-report/

I had Red River, NM at 82" of snow through 1/31 using my analogs, they're at 72" already, and more snow is coming Sunday. Their records are actually quite good for 1906-2014 - they average about 135 inches of snow, given their elevation of 8,600 feet.

January 1-11 high here is up to 41.4F. That's pretty cold for Albuquerque, although believe it or not warmer than January 1-11 in 2016. Still, it is around 4F below the 1/1-1/11 average high for the last 100 years or so. January is not one of our protected months for highs (i.e. no trend from Earth warming), so against 1981-2010 or 1989-2018, the highs are closer to 6F below average so far. 

The NAM, GFS, and Euro all have more snow here on Saturday Night or Sunday. January hasn't had more than 4.7 inches of snow in Albuquerque since the AMO flipped phases in 1994/1995. We were at 2.0" on 1/1. If we finish the month over 4-5" inches, I'd say there is increasing evidence that the AMO really is starting to flip, as we went from 1997-98 to 2013-14 with only one 4"+ January for snow, similar to the 1946-47 to 1960-61 period, which also had one 4" January for snow, before they became much more common during the cold AMO phase.

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Well I hope California can really cash in on this rain over the next week.   May not see much for awhile if a ridge pattern digs in and persists.  So hopefully the Sierra snowpack receives a good cache.

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13 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

If that is the FV3...

 

What you dont believe single digits all the way down to the deep south!

I believe in magic sometimes lol

Edited by so_whats_happening

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1/11 CPC 8 to 14 day

image.thumb.png.f521d8fbe10969a6bccf440fd60ed775.pngimage.thumb.png.b2784cbbb3fc31dc0766bd13574e60ab.png

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Given how similar 12/26 - 1/10 turned out in the 2015-16 and 2018-19 El Ninos for Western cold in the higher negative correlation zone (Positive NAO in deeper blues = cold West), after NAO+ Octobers, will be relying on this graphic in the future if the NAO is ever extremely positive like it was in October of both 2015 and 2018. The deeper cold in 2015 in TX and NM was largely from the 1-3 feet of snow from Goliath in places like Roswell. 

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim

Drhd1e8UUAAh7py.jpg:large

n5xYSeX.png

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2 hours ago, jdrenken said:

If that is the FV3...

 

My screenshot was the 18z GFS

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13 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

My screenshot was the 18z GFS

Since you cut it off we couldn't tell now could we...hence my first sentence..."If that is the FV3"

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Wouldnt mind a cold shot or two into february, only because i am having an entire new wood burning fireplace system installed first week of february and want to test it out to see how it heats up the place. 

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3 hours ago, RobB said:

1/11 CPC 8 to 14 day

image.thumb.png.f521d8fbe10969a6bccf440fd60ed775.pngimage.thumb.png.b2784cbbb3fc31dc0766bd13574e60ab.png

Cold and moist.......2 words that go well together......in the weather weenie world 

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1/12 0Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.4f2e5b7f18677fe5c407f45c097b66fa.png

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1/12 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(2).gif

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11 hours ago, CincySnow said:

Wouldnt mind a cold shot or two into february, only because i am having an entire new wood burning fireplace system installed first week of february and want to test it out to see how it heats up the place. 

Internal or external? We recently moved out to the country and this heats the house and its incredible. Saves us hundreds compared to using that money hog on the left

20190112_093245.jpg

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20 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

Internal or external? We recently moved out to the country and this heats the house and its incredible. Saves us hundreds compared to using that money hog on the left

20190112_093245.jpg

Internal.  This is the unit we are having installed.  Our wall will be floor to ceiling stone with a floating mantel (rustic chunk of cherry wood): 

http://astria.us.com/products/montecito

 

 

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1/12 12Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.b5104580039c4960fbde7913e9f0d5ed.png

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A rather chilly 1/12 12Z GEFS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

GEFS Ensembles North America 2-m Temperature Anom.gif

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Snow hole.  :classic_angry:

 

snowhole gfs.png

snowholeeps.png

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This I can live with - eastern half with near normal temps.

t5mkIid.png

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So far, the winners of winter for snowfall have been NC and VA I'd say. Doing fairly well here. Against 1931-32 to 2017-18 I believe we're around +10% or +20% for snowfall in town through 1/11.

Dwu_aTyVAAETwz6.jpg

My snowfall outlook from October had a lot of snow in the Plains and Rockies, with below normal totals in the coastal NE, and high totals downwind of the Lakes. That seems broadly correct, especially with the Plains and Rockies set to get a lot more snow now and over the next few days. Boston looks like it will be under an inch through 1/15 as an example of where the NE is. VA / NC are doing better than I expected. The image below is from my outlook. I'm still expecting the Plains especially to get dumped on into March and April. The early snows in the SE largely verified in November, and parts of the NE had an ice storm/slop fest in November too, so been pretty happy with it overal.

 

Dwu_eD0U8AEoXV6.jpg

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1/12 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom.gif

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1/12 CPC 8 to 14 day

image.thumb.png.9c62776445010876a3899f6ba2952640.pngimage.thumb.png.c1c58fb7e55ab1e758e8f28b54480cb8.png

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The extended Pacific jet is expected to buckle... western ridge then pops. Wouldn't call this the death of the Pacific jet... it's at least hibernating

lsnkQqn.png

tsS1OOT.png

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