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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Solstice

August 21-23, 2018 | Severe Threat & Summer Storm

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GFS

Spoiler

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GEM

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ICON

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Edited by Solstice
Added spoilers to condense post.

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Might as well make a home for discussion of the next (and perhaps final) heavy rain/severe threat. One more fly in the ointment before relief sets in, in earnest?

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Yay for transition season. I could use a nice stretch of weather. Gotta do some work on the house and make it all perty and ready for winter.

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2 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Are these the same?
If they are, we can test the "merge" function 😀.

Or you can trash mine (try out the trash bin feature) and rename yours to include the severe threat. I had not noticed you had a thread for the date already - my humble apology. 🙂

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7 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Or you can trash mine (try out the trash bin feature) and rename yours to include the severe threat. I had not noticed you had a thread for the date already - my humble apology. 🙂

Haha it's fine! I was going to merge mine to yours so it would remain under your username, but apparently it appends the content from the other thread when you use the merge.

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I'm honestly a little excited to see this storm system come by this week. The more rain is not a good thing of course for quite a few areas, but from looking at the models, this has the feel of a fall system over a summer system of heavy storms with still rather warm temperatures, and the first one of those after summer always gets me excited. The GFS and CMC is certainly looking to bring some cool weather to the Interior during the day on Wednesday. If this verifies, it would be my first day where I didn't get above 70 since early June. 

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Edited by bradjl2009
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Rinse, wash, repeat.  Just waiting for a system to punch through and have a good push of Canadian air behind it.  This appears to have it, but doesn't look like it's going to last for a long period of time until the muck returns.  

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21 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Rinse, wash, repeat.  Just waiting for a system to punch through and have a good push of Canadian air behind it.  This appears to have it, but doesn't look like it's going to last for a long period of time until the muck returns.  

The agony of the slow descent into fall. It's such a step down process. Each Canadian front bringing a little more punch than the last. But between you get the warm ups.  Then its almost 80 in october and your like wtf? Summer,  why won't you just die. 🙄

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1 hour ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Rinse, wash, repeat.  Just waiting for a system to punch through and have a good push of Canadian air behind it.  This appears to have it, but doesn't look like it's going to last for a long period of time until the muck returns.  

While it will be brief, this does look to bring in a decent though brief stretch of cooler weather from Wednesday through Friday. I imagine you guys in Cambria County will have no issue getting into the 40's Thursday and Friday am by current guidance. It sucks, but it is still too early I supposed to be done with the summer warmth for a few more weeks. 

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39 minutes ago, bradjl2009 said:

While it will be brief, this does look to bring in a decent though brief stretch of cooler weather from Wednesday through Friday. I imagine you guys in Cambria County will have no issue getting into the 40's Thursday and Friday am by current guidance. It sucks, but it is still too early I supposed to be done with the summer warmth for a few more weeks. 

I wont complain about an upper 40's night at all, I enjoy the windows open and a few layers of blankets sleeping haha.  While i dont wish summer to be over, I just miss air mass changes that we normally see more than we have this summer.  This pattern is just silly stagnant, and honestly can't remember the last frontal passage that really meant business and brought truly cooler drier air.  While not overly hot this summer humidity has been horrible, along with the heavy short duration precip deluges.   Our area got whacked 3 times with 3" + rain events in over an hours time.   

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First night in about 2 weeks no AC needed, breezy as well out of the NE almost chilly out there.

Looks nice...

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18 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Might as well make a home for discussion of the next (and perhaps final) heavy rain/severe threat. One more fly in the ointment before relief sets in, in earnest?

Capture.PNG.56930060045ef784ff03ed0a2f3f9403.PNG

 

day2otlk_0600.gif.4b3a8a1f60ef0d4933cbb718b2c75c83.gif

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

I wont complain about an upper 40's night at all, I enjoy the windows open and a few layers of blankets sleeping haha.  While i dont wish summer to be over, I just miss air mass changes that we normally see more than we have this summer.  This pattern is just silly stagnant, and honestly can't remember the last frontal passage that really meant business and brought truly cooler drier air.  While not overly hot this summer humidity has been horrible, along with the heavy short duration precip deluges.   Our area got whacked 3 times with 3" + rain events in over an hours time.   

I'm looking forward to maybe even the low 50's here in my urban area, haha. I love the cool nights, especially the first ones after summer! This is one nice thing about the interior, we can certainly get that truly cooler weather (especially at night with these early fronts) much sooner than those in the I-95 corridor can. I feel like it has been weeks as well since we have had a true pattern change too, but I do remember a few mornings in July that it got down to the 50's. So far this month, I have yet to drop below 60, ridiculous. I agree too the summer has been stagnant with temperatures generally not too high during the day, but horrible humidity. 

Edited by bradjl2009

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I had a BBQ at my place in the Poconos this past weekend with friends and Friday/Saturday felt like summer. Woke up Sunday morning and 100% fall. Humidity lifted, temp dropped a good amount, cool breeze, leaves are changing and starting to fall. Was good ATV riding weather on Sunday.

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I was hoping to have the windows open last night before bed, but the humidity is still high here, nearly 80% outside, although the temps are down to the low 60's. Since the beginning of July the AC has been running, I keep the t-stat at 73, but the humidity inside is in the low 50's. Hopefully after Tuesday / Wednesday's round of storms I can turn the central air off and keep the windows open. I am really looking forward to a dry seasonable stretch thats coming up.

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Feels awesome out there...finally!! Last time we made it into the 50s for overnight low was July 21. Next hurdle is to make it to the 40s, last accomplished on June 26th.

Hoping to get some rain out of this system. NWS already saying 90% chance of showers

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Starting to get that "meh" feeling about the severe side of this for most of the population centers. Timing of the "worst" dynamics appear late in the game, and without heat of the day (such that it would be anyway), I could see the threat become very localized - almost "typical". 

Also, the 3KNAM appears to be lessening with successive runs. We're close enough to use the "so called trends" of run to run comparisons, to glean a bit of what the odds may be. 

 

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

Starting to get that "meh" feeling about the severe side of this for most of the population centers. Timing of the "worst" dynamics appear late in the game, and without heat of the day (such that it would be anyway), I could see the threat become very localized - almost "typical". 

Also, the 3KNAM appears to be lessening with successive runs. We're close enough to use the "so called trends" of run to run comparisons, to glean a bit of what the odds may be. 

 

Yea we will see not real impressed with the meso models this year overall they have missed alot, but I feel the concern. I think we have a chance at something decent even without a lot of heating to take place. Strong forcing with this should help with the lack of instability with the collocation of the warm front and cold front should make things interesting. Probably more so of a rain and wind threat but of course many do not need that right now. Im thinking we get some nice forcing with the warm front through the afternoon tomorrow to possibly warrant some severe storms and maybe supercells with DP's already established it wont take much heating to get things going. We should start to see some backing of winds aloft as the system gets closer so some cooling will take place helping with lapse rates. The key will be whether or not we can get just some sun for destabilization. This will depend on timing of the warm front and location as we are just north of the warm front/ stalled boundary now and with the system expected to go negative and lift out thats a lot of energy to throw into the area. Im a little worried about nocturnal squall situation setting up for later tomorrow night into wednesday morning this will have to be monitored as time goes on. After this an area of LP tries to develop along the front and the coastal plain may get into some decent rains as it tries to play catch up to the main ULL.

 

Then some beautiful weather before the heat! It looks like we are cycling through some of the same phases of the MJO so I wouldnt be surprised if we get a wash rinse repeat situation starting next week into september. With heat then rain rain rain... although this situation looks to be a little different then before with the ridge position so that should be interesting to see what happens.

Edited by so_whats_happening
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Even if the severe threat doesn't pan out for everyone, the setup is certainly interesting (and over my head) to say the least. 

Trying to make sense of it but I'm going cross-eyed. I guess essentially as the cold front approaches the area It's going to see a number of favorable factors minus any real heating due to cloud cover and timing. 

 

Sounds like the more interesting line might just miss me to the north this evening. 

Sterling/LWX

Quote

Meanwhile, low pressure near Chicago will occlude as it traverses
the Great Lakes beneath a neutrally-tilted mid/upper trough through
the afternoon, then depart up the St. Lawrence River Valley tonight.
Its surface cold front will approach the region this evening. With
extensive cloud cover, appreciable heating will be hard to come by,
especially east of the Blue Ridge where clouds are often a bit more
persistent. Mid-level lapse rates are modest. Even so, abundant
moisture (PWATs 2+ inches, surface dew points 70+ F) will result in
modest CAPE even without much heating. This coupled with 30-40+ kts
of effective shear ahead of the approaching trough will result in an
environment capable of producing at least isolated strong to severe
convection, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

Precipitation will likely come in two different waves: 1) along and
ahead of the northward advancing warm front late this morning into
this afternoon, and 2) ahead of the approaching cold front this
evening. Showers are likely (~60-70% coverage) associated with the
warm front. Though thunderstorms may be more isolated, increasing
low-level shear could lead to a few organized cells with brief
rotation. Precipitation may ultimately be more likely with the warm
front east of the Blue Ridge given questions of instability later
this afternoon and evening. An organized line of convection seems
probable ahead of the cold front late this afternoon, developing
over central WV before progressing eastward/northeastward. The best
mid and upper forcing will be across PA and adjacent eastern
WV/western MD nearer to the synoptic system, but if higher
instability can be realized, the line may extend further south and
eastward into northern/northwestern VA and central MD. Loss of
heating and the departure of the synoptic lift should result in a
steady decrease in showers and thunderstorms by late this evening as
it approaches the I-95 corridor. The 00Z WRF-ARW is most aggressive
with the evening convection, but most other CAM/HREF guidance does
not bring organized convection as far south and east. Therefore,
have kept the highest PoPs/enhanced wording for gusty winds across
eastern WV/western MD for now where confidence is highest, but most
areas west of the I-95 corridor are under a Slight Risk for severe
convection from SPC.

Additionally, if repeated rounds of thunderstorms are observed over
the highlands (where FFG is relatively low), flooding may become a
concern given the high PWAT environment and warm-cloud layers of 13-
14 kft, despite relatively swift storm motions. Eastern WV/western
MD are under a Slight Risk of excessive rain from WPC.

 

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13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I think we have a chance at something decent even without a lot of heating to take place. Strong forcing with this should help with the lack of instability with the collocation of the warm front and cold front should make things interesting

Amen to that, i was also thinking about the forcing & bulk shear aspect, this is not something we see a lot here in this section of the country, this is more like a early spring setup for the south east us. Daytime heating is not really the element here, it the upper level winds, low level winds and the bumping on storms in relation to each other, I foresee a cluster scenario playing out, as a storm to the north develops and matures, anther will form to its south or east and steal is warm moist feed.  

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Looking like we will get some storms this afternoon here in SW VA. Hopefully not too severe. Short range models showing some possibility of that.

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Not every day Sterling mentions a waterspout in their disco 

"Showers and isolated thunderstorms have
developed near the frontal boundary this morning, and any
activity will have to be monitored for the potential of weak
rotation (weak tornado/waterspout) and heavy rain."

100% humidity and mist here.. should be quite the contrast this time tomorrow!

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AccuWX may be closing as I type.  I keep getting errors. Sometimes I get into a thread but cannot post or reply

 

EDIT: Getting shut out from my phone, too. 

 

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Edited by Miller A

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