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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

telejunkie

August 26-29, 2018 | Heat Wave - Well Above Average Temperatures

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Think it's time to start talking about the elephant in the room. So after scanning ensembles and the entrenched eastern ridge that looks to dominate the end of month to potentially early September. 12z GFS has 90s starting in the DC/Baltimore region starting on the 26th and lasting until it goes into low rez range. Hope nobody put their A/C units away yet...

GFS.gif

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Low 90's with low RH I think I can handle for a little bit. Just please do something about the humidity. If I wanted a sauna I'd join a gym.

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Looks like downsloping winds so coastal plain should see the bulk of the heating (I-95 corridor) back in the western areas warm but not excessive. Gotta watch the DP's, with this originating in a different part of the country then the last bout of heat one could say less humid conditions are probable but will have to wait and see for that with all the moisture still in the ground I could see the first day or two of the heat being pretty bad with low 90's and high dps as we evaporate the surface but then do a flip of higher temps and lower dews.

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17 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like downsloping winds so coastal plain should see the bulk of the heating (I-95 corridor) back in the western areas warm but not excessive. Gotta watch the DP's, with this originating in a different part of the country then the last bout of heat one could say less humid conditions are probable but will have to wait and see for that with all the moisture still in the ground I could see the first day or two of the heat being pretty bad with low 90's and high dps as we evaporate the surface but then do a flip of higher temps and lower dews.

Yeah figured we would probably still have to deal with afternoon storms.  Just wish the stickiness would let up. Feels like this has been going on forever. 

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1 hour ago, telejunkie said:

Think it's time to start talking about the elephant in the room. So after scanning ensembles and the entrenched eastern ridge that looks to dominate the end of month to potentially early September. 12z GFS has 90s starting in the DC/Baltimore region starting on the 26th and lasting until it goes into low rez range. Hope nobody put their A/C units away yet...

GFS.gif

I was so hoping the phrase "heat wave" was going to be retired for us until well into next year.  Maybe I'm blocking out painful memories, but this is one of the worst summers I can remember in recent years. Seems that  way to me anyway. Haven't been able to open a window for some fresh air in what seems like forever.   And now it seems to be far from over...?!  Awful!

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4 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Yeah figured we would probably still have to deal with afternoon storms.  Just wish the stickiness would let up. Feels like this has been going on forever. 

Yea we will have to see about afternoon storms might be too much capping in many regions to allow that for the beginning portion of the heat wave potential. Areas in the inter mountains that usually see low level convergence can expect their normal popcorn storms but will have to watch cause this pattern could very well yield some type of MCS systems running along the northern edge so that will be something to watch as well.

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I'll have to find the side chat I had with JD and Clapper and Poc - where I said that, based on BSR (from maybe 8/4) showed this HW potential. I threatened to open a thread way back when. Glad to see if come to fruition - both to validate the BSR and my interpretation of it. 

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Ah there it is - on Fb messenger ~8/3. I did make a blog about this time period being the "new patter" (Pattern is the pattern - until it's not) 🙂

Capture.PNG.a47987b25aed1f05a57a4ec8efee60b5.PNG
 

 

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

I'll have to find the side chat I had with JD and Clapper and Poc - where I said that, based on BSR (from maybe 8/4) showed this HW potential. I threatened to open a thread way back when. Glad to see if come to fruition - both to validate the BSR and my interpretation of it. 

Not to get off topic but this just reminded me. I remember around this time last year you started pushing your winter outlook of I believe it was "cold chasing the storms" and in a nutshell, it did pan out. I haven't been reading/following as much since it's summer and the switching of the forums but have you put out your broad stroke prediction for this winter yet? Curious to see what you're thinking this year.

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32 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

 

Not to get off topic but this just reminded me. I remember around this time last year you started pushing your winter outlook of I believe it was "cold chasing the storms" and in a nutshell, it did pan out. I haven't been reading/following as much since it's summer and the switching of the forums but have you put out your broad stroke prediction for this winter yet? Curious to see what you're thinking this year.

Great memory of my thoughts. Not sure if I put them out this early though (mayhaps I did, mayhaps I didn't) but that was the theme. I'm not certain that I can make any early calls this go around though - we can't expect cutoff ULL's using copious moisture to produce prolific precipitation  all through winter. 

In my blog, I mentioned that the 20-21 would see that start of such a "new" pattern:

So, that around the 18th, we see potential wave "break" - pattern break, if you will. This is signaled by the Bering Sea Rule as we move towards 8/20.  Notice the "L"'s out west, and the H now moving below mid Florida instead of northeast of mid Florida. This small move is important, because it shunts the "flow" from the Gulf (essentially cuts it off) and at the same time also eliminates the Atlantic moisture feed - this is southwest flow which is warm and relatively dry. 

Wx Wiinii Blog

Which I followed up with:

In my post from a few days ago, I posited that Shanshan would induce an Eastern trough via response to the Typhoon Rule. That notion is, slowly showing up on the computer weather models. Note (in green) the flow changes from what we have, at present, to a reversal of sorts - trough west, ridge east.  As you know, the ridges bring the warmth/troughs bring cool air aloft. The alteration of the "flow" would bring about a much welcome break - drier warmer air, as opposed to the humid "crud" plaguing the pattern for most of this summer season. 

Turning summer!!? Hooray.  But again, we have to wonder if the pattern is truly broken.  Again, we go to computer imaging to help. This time, we'll munch some spaghetti, as in spaghetti charts. These charts are a representation of several runs of the same computer model, but with slightly differing initial conditions fed into the computers (and run at slightly weaker resolution) - the white lines are the main (deterministic) run of the model - the colored lines represent the ensemble "members" (each different run of the same model). Where the colored lines are closer to the white, we have more confidence that the white (main run) is correct. In this instance, the (red) lines which are the ones we're most interested in, are further north than the white. This suggests that the jet stream will stay north of PA and we need that to be the case to blunt the effect of what would, otherwise, be  another trough. Note too the white circles down over the southeast US and near Bahama/Bermuda part of the Atlantic - that signals that the ridge "may" be trying to reorient into a favorable position for drier (but still a touch humid) weather - less deluge rain, more in the way of pop up showers (not heavy rain showers) for the days after the 20th. 

While I have to readily admit that I jumped the timing gun (as it were), the pattern break notion seems solid - at least in the near term for the end of August. 

We still have that "WILL IT HOLD" question though - and if OFM leads the way again, I'd be betting that it won't and an EC trough alignment reappears. But that's a subject for a different thread. 

 

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Decided to open end the thread dates as there is no sign in the long range of the eastern ridge relenting. Maybe becoming more zonal, maybe more central CONUS based, but heights remain fairly high. UTS & others...you seeing otherwise via OFM? No typhoon recurving? (crosses fingers)

Today's 6z GFS has 90s in the region, especially coastal plain, all the way through the end of the run (Sept 7)

Edited by telejunkie

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GFS is screaming heat - but will it be over 90?   EPS supports a lot of 90+ in the coastal plain as well, so thats a good sign.319556223_epsheat8-27.thumb.png.e3a06074a16b05a8498afc27ccfcc2c3.png2030625798_epsheat8-30.thumb.png.82ff2c86b27ffa8b4e6b42b3fb3fc40b.png

eps heat 8-28.png

eps heat 8-29.png

Edited by StretchCT

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51 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

2 typhoons recurving - Cimaron and Soulik   https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Saw PM's thread on those typhoons just after I posted that...so potential implications 6-10 days down the road is that ridge should break and end date maybe warranted around Labor Day? (again crosses fingers)

Edited by telejunkie
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4 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Saw PM's thread on those typhoons just after I posted that...so potential implications 6-10 days down the road is that ridge should break and end date maybe warranted around Labor Day? (again crosses fingers)

I've seen those two out there. One fine detail is that the traditional Typhoon Rule posits that the typhoon recurves PRIOR TO the prefectures of Japan - those two do not. Having said that, they do recurve prior to the continent land mass - so how, if at all, does that impact? 

Then, the BSR H5 maps show this - an apparently semi entrenched EC trough. Still some central US ridging and heat, maybe it folds over enough to place our region "on the rim"? Also to consider, there is still a WC ridge signal - can one overpower the other so the old see-saw of west trough/east ridge (and visa versa) shows? 

bsr.PNG.d31e8290cab31afb0bd7c30df9e02b61.PNG

That looks holds for about 4 days and then we go back to (probably) very warm SWF. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

I've seen those two out there. One fine detail is that the traditional Typhoon Rule posits that the typhoon recurves PRIOR TO the prefectures of Japan - those two do not. Having said that, they do recurve prior to the continent land mass - so how, if at all, does that impact? 

Then, the BSR H5 maps show this - an apparently semi entrenched EC trough. Still some central US ridging and heat, maybe it folds over enough to place our region "on the rim"? Also to consider, there is still a WC ridge signal - can one overpower the other so the old see-saw of west trough/east ridge (and visa versa) shows? 

bsr.PNG.d31e8290cab31afb0bd7c30df9e02b61.PNG

That looks holds for about 4 days and then we go back to (probably) very warm SWF. 

 

 

Interesting because I saw via ensembles that it wanted to place a central CONUS ridge in that timeframe that would do exactly that...put northern parts of the region in a NW flow, which subsequently gets shunted east and we’re back under a zonal to then SWF upper air pattern. Time will tell...but OFM folk, please let me know if an end date looks more prominent. 

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Just scanned through some of the latest ensembles and heights look to fall middle of next week, but looks like only a brief respite as the SE ridge looks to reload. Whether it stays in the SE or migrates west to the southern plains is a big question in the long range, providing a more NW flow for the region. 6z GFS want to build it over the southern plains keeping us in a much cooler flow. Not a ton of support on ensembles from my glance, but not too far off. If GFS is right though, it would mean an end date next week, but not much confidence in this scenario at this point.

Edited by telejunkie

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18 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Interesting because I saw via ensembles that it wanted to place a central CONUS ridge in that timeframe that would do exactly that...put northern parts of the region in a NW flow, which subsequently gets shunted east and we’re back under a zonal to then SWF upper air pattern. Time will tell...but OFM folk, please let me know if an end date looks more prominent. 

I looked at the 12Z GFS and compared it to recent RRWT analogs. There seems to be a lot of similarity in the H5 in the 6-20 day outlook.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_39.thumb.png.40987c92711814d2e778a60e15b8391d.png

After which it cools downs somewhat in the ECONUS.

644399866_rrwt-2125-nh-tmp(2).png.80725cd23172c3a4e5f348566a2543b7.png

We shall see. 🙂

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Given today's 12Z ECMWF data for NYC Central Park, the heat would start on the 27th of August and end on the 29th, with a pretty drastic temperature fall on the 30th.

As per today's raw ECMWF ata there would not be a NYC heat wave give that on the 27th, the temperature does not hit 90F. However, I do think that 90F can be reached on the 27th when that day actually arrives.

I would say that a 3 day heat wave some areas and 4 day one for other areas is in order given the setup discussed on the posts above.

But what I think may be the most interesting and fascinating will be that drastic high temperature change from the 29th to the 30th.

 

Screenshot_2018-08-24-22-56-10.png

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18 hours ago, OSNW3 said:

I looked at the 12Z GFS and compared it to recent RRWT analogs. There seems to be a lot of similarity in the H5 in the 6-20 day outlook.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_39.thumb.png.40987c92711814d2e778a60e15b8391d.png

After which it cools downs somewhat in the ECONUS.

644399866_rrwt-2125-nh-tmp(2).png.80725cd23172c3a4e5f348566a2543b7.png

We shall see. 🙂

Yesterday's run suggests the 16-20d 5-day period, 9/9-13, cools things off for the Northeast. It is safe to say, at the current frequency feedback, the RRWT keeps above average temps in that region until the 16-25 day period when sustained cool shots should occur... we shall see!

 

compday.EAUKom1CFQ.png

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GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... We are seeing the development of a subtropical ridge over the Carolinas remaining largely in place for the foreseeable future. Several troughs move through the westerlies to the north of the ridge, allowing some breaks from the heat as cold fronts push through, but the dome of heat is not budging and will still be available for us to access into September. The position of this ridge over the coastal Southeastern US also opens up the door for Gulf of Mexico moisture to get pulled up around the ridge and into our region, so humidity and heat index will also be topics of discussion. The heat builds on Monday with temperatures hitting the upper 80s and low 90s. Dewpoints will also be on the rise but won`t really be a big concern until Tuesday when the better combination of heat and humidity will exist. Tuesday and Wednesday should see widespread 90 degree temperatures, some in the mid 90s, with dewpoints hitting 70 degrees. This will likely result in Heat Advisories being issued for part of the area as heat index values will be up into the 95 to 100 degree range at times. Nighttime lows in this air mass will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with the warmest night being Tuesday night.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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I am pleased to see an end date on this. The best part of any heat wave thread is the End Date, so I'll be looking forward to Thursday's 74-degree high. They lowered the maxes a bit. As for Monday, our record high is 89 in 1983 and 1980 and, of course, 1953. Tuesday's record of 91 was from 1953. There is a long series of record highs from 1953. I recall them from 1973 because we kept missing the record highs in the 1973 hot spell, though we have some record high minimums from that year that still stand. Late August has been a popular time for hot spells--I can think of 1993, 2010, and more.

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