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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

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Snowgeek93

Winter 2018-2019 OBS

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Seasonal Thread and Discussion.

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Anthony Farnell dropped this on twitter

 

As an aside, he's Canada's best long range met IMO. He was the only one to forecast an above average summer for Ontario, all the other outlets (TWN, EC to name a few) overestimated the strength of the Hudson Bay vortex.

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I'm not holding my breath for a good Winter with another El Nino on the horizon but you never know with mother nature. I never could have imagined what happened here last April with the snow and cold so never say never. 

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El Nino and "Warm Blob" are back...

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png.c59e27c731e25249df2f6727dcaeb14e.png

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^^^

Per Anthony Farnell

Meanwhile, Judah Cohen has a warm winter which goes against what the the Euro, JMA, UKmet models are showing. His forecasts are heavily based on the Siberian snow index (which is a rough predictor of the DJF NAO, AO if I understand it correctly).

 

Edited by TheRealDavid
fix tweets

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Quote

--Winter weather pattern expected to be dominated by a developing El Nino in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino may reach moderate strength by midwinter. Warmer-than-normal water off British Columbia, throughout the Great Lakes and off Atlantic Canada will also influence the winter weather in those particular regions. However, I am also concerned there may be other factors at play that may partially cancel out the typical impacts of El Nino

590x331_10311135_2018-19-canada-winter-temps.jpg

This model should also indicate changes for the United States as well in terms of a milder outlook.

And because weather is dominated by enthusiasts in Ontario I decided to add this quote: 

Quote

--Snowfall will be below average for much of cottage and ski country in Ontario, but near to above average for the Quebec resorts.

--I expect slightly below-average snowfall in the GTA this season.

Source

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Interesting looking system showing up for around the 13th/14th. Looks like more cold air will be in place with this system meaning a better chance for snow. Track and timing is still to be determined. Watching this one closely.

GFS

552AF0F9-9E43-4AC0-B48D-AB54D5788519.png.9b47f84baa71c75773642a25a9210bc6.png

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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18z GFS for the next system.

7755123D-63C3-4FC1-A59D-DE73AA669A87.png.13c62b6791e66e521bbbfd187c21fc05.png2DEA413E-0686-47F1-BE98-742674407A8A.png.2f5b9c363011761e49909006ba997fc8.png

It currently is a miss east of ON by looking at the GFS. Wouldn’t take much of a NW shift to get the snow to ON.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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I doubt we will get much of anything in the way of accumulation with the warm ground. Still, I guess it's a sign of things to come even if I have doubts about this being a good winter with El Nino raging again.

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2 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

I doubt we will get much of anything in the way of accumulation with the warm ground. Still, I guess it's a sign of things to come even if I have doubts about this being a good winter with El Nino raging again.

Yeah, I agree that the winter around S ON looks like it will have above average temperatures and below average snowfall but you can get some decent storms if all the ingredients come together in a El Nino year. It will probably be a slow start to the winter for the east but there should still be lots to watch for as things go on.

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Latest JMA is out and it's trending drier for the Great Lakes, joining the Euro. Keep in mind we can still be snowier than normal in a drier than normal winter. We just might not have much in the way of rain storms.

Y201810.D0800_gl0.png

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Edited by TheRealDavid
add euro

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1 hour ago, Snowgeek93 said:

Looks colder than normal for weeks IMBY, no surprise, but I would gladly take the Dry with that.  We're getting into that busy holiday travel/shopping season.  And the fewer traffic nightmares for people, the better.   So hope that comes to fruition.  Although despite all the "dry" around the GL, gotta figure the lake-effect machine will be chugging.  

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9 hours ago, MotownWX said:

Looks colder than normal for weeks IMBY, no surprise, but I would gladly take the Dry with that.  We're getting into that busy holiday travel/shopping season.  And the fewer traffic nightmares for people, the better.   So hope that comes to fruition.  Although despite all the "dry" around the GL, gotta figure the lake-effect machine will be chugging.  

 

Since June, the weather pattern in the Great Lakes has closely resembled the same period in 2002 (Normal June-hot summer-hot September before an abrupt switch), although 2002 had a somewhat warmer November than this year due to one warm spell. This year's November has had especially persistent cold. Even in November 2014, it was more like two weeks of extreme cold and two weeks of more normal temps. This year it is remarkably persistent.

Another stat of interest is that this year's October-November combo is looking to be the coldest since at least 1980 where I am. One of the cloudiest October-November combos on record is only adding to the misery. I guess this is payback for three warm falls in a row.

Edited by Weatherdude93

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10 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

The promised late November warmup is looking more and more like a bust. Also, if parts of the GTA don't hit 10C at least once the rest of this year, November 6th could be the earliest last 10C+ day on record in a calendar year for some.

Edited by Weatherdude93

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1 hour ago, Weatherdude93 said:

Since June, the weather pattern in the Great Lakes has closely resembled the same period in 2002 (Normal June-hot summer-hot September before an abrupt switch), although 2002 had a somewhat warmer November than this year due to one warm spell. This year's November has had especially persistent cold. Even in November 2014, it was more like two weeks of extreme cold and two weeks of more normal temps. This year it is remarkably persistent.

Another stat of interest is that this year's October-November combo is looking to be the coldest since at least 1980 where I am. One of the cloudiest October-November combos on record is only adding to the misery. I guess this is payback for three warm falls in a row.

I have been reading up on a lot of Winter 2018-19 forecasts on various forums over the past few days & it was great to see 2002-2003 used as an analogue on most of them,that was a great winter in the GTA with 152 cm from Nov-April

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4 minutes ago, Markj138 said:

I have been reading up on a lot of Winter 2018-19 forecasts on various forums over the past few days & it was great to see 2002-2003 used as an analogue on most of them,that was a great winter in the GTA with 152 cm from Nov-April

2

2002-03 especially felt cold because the previous winter was a blowtorch. In 2003, spring was also cold and wet, summer took extremely long to arrive but was rather typical once it did, and fall started somewhat cool before a mild November-December. 2003 was perhaps the coldest calendar year of the 21st century in the GTA, until 2014 came along.

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14 minutes ago, Weatherdude93 said:

2002-03 especially felt cold because the previous winter was a blowtorch. In 2003, spring was also cold and wet, summer took extremely long to arrive but was rather typical once it did, and fall started somewhat cool before a mild November-December. 2003 was perhaps the coldest calendar year of the 21st century in the GTA, until 2014 came along.

Sounds promising if you like snow & cold,on the flip side i have seen 2009-2010 thrown around too which was horrible here,if we can stay away from sustained blocking we should be ok,it looks our first test will be the end of November  beginning of December in that regard.

 

 

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2002-2003 delivered 178.4cm of snow in Markham so definitely a good winter. Another good case scenario would be a 14-15 repeat with something like February 2015 happening again. Even though snowfall was below average that season that epic stretch totally made up for it.

What we don't want is a 09-10 repeat though I don't think we had the blob that winter. Anyway, I'm cautiously optimistic about all of this and the potential cold the first couple of weeks of December. This isn't the super Nino of 15-16 after all.

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9 hours ago, Weatherdude93 said:

The promised late November warmup is looking more and more like a bust. Also, if parts of the GTA don't hit 10C at least once the rest of this year, November 6th could be the earliest last 10C+ day on record in a calendar year for some.

I hope so! El Nino usually means bad news for December winter weather around here but hopefully this year can buck that trend a little bit.

Edited by Snowgeek93

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57 minutes ago, Snowgeek93 said:

I hope so! El Nino usually means bad news for December winter weather around here but hopefully this year can buck that trend a little bit.

Some rare exceptions include 2009 (Okay, maybe not a lot of snow but temperatures were near to slightly below normal), 2002 (Frigid first nine days), and 1963 (Extremely cold December). 2002 and 1963 did not even have an abundance of December snow, but enough to call it wintry.

If the NAO continues to trend negative, we could be looking at a much colder December compared to your average El Nino winter. Especially true considering the western and Alaska ridging does not look to truly back off soon.

Screen Shot 2018-11-17 at 8.21.00 AM.png

Edited by Weatherdude93

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