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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

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Snowgeek93

Winter 2018-2019 OBS

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Definitely looking like the second half of the month into February is going to be on the colder side as arctic air becomes more readily available from the north to the south.

We haven’t see a pattern yet this season that looks like this but according to the ensembles it’s looking like a shift to lower height for the east.

With the cold more available it will at least give a better chance of storms that do develop and track in to the region to be on the frozen precipitation side.

All in all a better looking winter pattern coming up.

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On 1/9/2019 at 11:43 AM, knorthern_knight said:

  A 12-year offset...

  • 2006 ==> 2018
  • 2007 ==> 2019
  • 2008 ==> 2020

 

On 1/9/2019 at 10:30 PM, Weatherdude1993 said:

I would not be surprised if we get a cold February similar to 2007, but I am definitely not expecting a 2015 repeat. 2007 would be good news for late spring into early fall (Except July that year was slightly colder than normal here). The 2007-08 winter may have had a lot of snow, but it is more the extreme cold of 2014-15 and 2013-14 that bothers me than the snow (I hated March 2008 though).

The IRI ENSO forecast, which has a good track record in recent years, might throw a wrench into that 12 year thing. Weak El Nino conditions is expected to continue into summer.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Most years I've looked at with a similar ENSO state or progression, or both, have a warm 2nd half of spring, with a warm spring from start to finish in most years. Summers were all over the place, so it's too early to even make a preliminary prognosis.

The best case scenario would be a 1987 repeat but I think it's going to end up being closer to 2015. Though if you believe that we are in the new post-2016 warmer climate state, then it would essentially be a 1987 repeat.

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8 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Definitely looking like the second half of the month into February is going to be on the colder side as arctic air becomes more readily available from the north to the south.

We haven’t see a pattern yet this season that looks like this but according to the ensembles it’s looking like a shift to lower height for the east.

With the cold more available it will at least give a better chance of storms that do develop and track in to the region to be on the frozen precipitation side.

All in all a better looking winter pattern coming up.

At this point, if we can just lay down a solid base of snow and hold it for awhile I would be satisfied with this winter season.

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1 hour ago, Snowgeek93 said:

At this point, if we can just lay down a solid base of snow and hold it for awhile I would be satisfied with this winter season.

Hamilton has had 5.3 cm since December 1st after 17.8 cm in November. Pearson has had 9.2 cm since December 1st after 15.6 cm in November. I wonder how long it will take until we reach the amount of snow we had in November this meteorological winter season.

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4 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

 

The IRI ENSO forecast, which has a good track record in recent years, might throw a wrench into that 12 year thing. Weak El Nino conditions is expected to continue into summer.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Most years I've looked at with a similar ENSO state or progression, or both, have a warm 2nd half of spring, with a warm spring from start to finish in most years. Summers were all over the place, so it's too early to even make a preliminary prognosis.

The best case scenario would be a 1987 repeat but I think it's going to end up being closer to 2015. Though if you believe that we are in the new post-2016 warmer climate state, then it would essentially be a 1987 repeat.

Most El Nino winters seem to have early starts to spring, but with TWN predicting the cold pattern to go through "deep into March" I am uncertain of a warm first half of spring this year. Given how warm May's have been this past decade (With the exception of 2017) it should not surprise anyone if we get another warmer than normal May.

Summer of 2015 was cool in June, got hot in late July, was mostly cool again in August, and then a hot September.

Summer of 1987 was generally warm in the first half and generally cool in the first half with an early fall.

So yeah, just by looking at both of these years, it is really hard to tell about summer at this point. However, I read somewhere (Don't remember where) awhile back that the solar cycles have been similar to 1991-92 (I hope this doesn't mean that we will see a repeat of summer 1992. It makes 2017 and 2014 look good).

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59 minutes ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

Most El Nino winters seem to have early starts to spring, but with TWN predicting the cold pattern to go through "deep into March" I am uncertain of a warm first half of spring this year. Given how warm May's have been this past decade (With the exception of 2017) it should not surprise anyone if we get another warmer than normal May.

Summer of 2015 was cool in June, got hot in late July, was mostly cool again in August, and then a hot September.

Summer of 1987 was generally warm in the first half and generally cool in the first half with an early fall.

So yeah, just by looking at both of these years, it is really hard to tell about summer at this point. However, I read somewhere (Don't remember where) awhile back that the solar cycles have been similar to 1991-92 (I hope this doesn't mean that we will see a repeat of summer 1992. It makes 2017 and 2014 look good).

I could see Spring being yet again delayed around here. Seems to be a recurring trend no matter what ENSO state we're in. I just hope this summer is nothing like 2015 here as June 2015 was way too cloudy and cool and July and August were nothing to write home about either.

Now a 2016 type summer would suit me just fine. I'm no fan of the heat but the near constant sunshine and drought was awesome!

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22 minutes ago, Snowgeek93 said:

I could see Spring being yet again delayed around here. Seems to be a recurring trend no matter what ENSO state we're in. I just hope this summer is nothing like 2015 here as June 2015 was way too cloudy and cool and July and August were nothing to write home about either.

Now a 2016 type summer would suit me just fine. I'm no fan of the heat but the near constant sunshine and drought was awesome!

 

Even with March 2016 being warmer than normal, we had that rude awakening in April. April 2017 was warm but March 2017 was just as cold as March 2018 but with more fluctuations in the day-to-day temperatures in 2017. We can't seem to achieve a March-April period that is more consistently above normal since 2013, especially between mid-March and mid-April.

El Nino seems to increase the odds of a warmer March (2016, 2010, 1998) or March starts frigid then drastically warms later on (2007, 2003), but April more often goes either way.

Summer of 2015 was only good in mid-late July, one week in mid-August and September. I'd still take it over 2014 though. I actually wore long-sleeve shirts on several days in mid-late July 2014.

Summers with developing La Nina's after El Nino's tend to be especially hot, which 2016 was. As TheRealDavid said, it looks like a weak El Nino could continue into the summer, decreasing the odds of a really hot one. With El Nino eventually weakening as we head into 2020, I honestly think 2020 has a better chance of a hot summer than this year.

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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19 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

Even with March 2016 being warmer than normal, we had that rude awakening in April. April 2017 was warm but March 2017 was just as cold as March 2018 but with more fluctuations in the day-to-day temperatures in 2017. We can't seem to achieve a March-April period that is more consistently above normal since 2013, especially between mid-March and mid-April.

El Nino seems to increase the odds of a warmer March (2016, 2010, 1998) or March starts frigid then drastically warms later on (2007, 2003), but April more often goes either way.

Summer of 2015 was only good in mid-late July, one week in mid-August and September. I'd still take it over 2014 though. I actually wore long-sleeve shirts on several days in mid-late July 2014.

Summers with developing La Nina's after El Nino's tend to be especially hot, which 2016 was. As TheRealDavid said, it looks like a weak El Nino could continue into the summer, decreasing the odds of a really hot one. With El Nino eventually weakening as we head into 2020, I honestly think 2020 has a better chance of a hot summer than this year.

I'd be ok with another cool March-April if we got a warm May-June combo like in 2012. (Edit: let me clarify, I meant May-June 2012 not the full March-June 2012) We've had really warm Mays lately but it's been a while since we've had a super warm June that followed a really warm May.

 

On a different note, I love how we're all talking about spring in the winter thread. :classic_laugh: Shows how boring this winter has been. I guess I'm partly to blame since I brought back the topic. :classic_ninja: Does anyone want to do the honour of starting up the Spring 2019 thread? The US side already did.

Edited by TheRealDavid
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1 hour ago, TheRealDavid said:

I'd be ok with another cool March-April if we got a warm May-June combo like in 2012. We've had really warm Mays lately but it's been a while since we've had a super warm June that followed a really warm May.

 

On a different note, I love how we're all talking about spring in the winter thread. :classic_laugh: Shows how boring this winter has been. I guess I'm partly to blame since I brought back the topic. :classic_ninja: Does anyone want to do the honour of starting up the Spring 2019 thread? The US side already did.

This winter has been too predictable, lol.

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3 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

On a different note, I love how we're all talking about spring in the winter thread. :classic_laugh: Shows how boring this winter has been. I guess I'm partly to blame since I brought back the topic. :classic_ninja: Does anyone want to do the honour of starting up the Spring 2019 thread? The US side already did.

Done! :classic_cool:

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Speaking of Spring, were gaining 9 minutes of daylight a week now in the evenings. Winter may be crappy but nothing can stop the days from getting longer.

Here was the sky tonight just before 6pm :classic_tongue:

IMG_20190113_175516802.thumb.jpg.aaf4886baf7bebdd3feca7c43ed9a313.jpg

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My area could get nearly 15 cm on Saturday before the extreme cold comes on Sunday. So much for "winter is cancelled" like lots of people on the TWN articles and Joe Bastardi's tweets were saying.

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7 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

My area could get nearly 15 cm on Saturday before the extreme cold comes on Sunday. So much for "winter is cancelled" like lots of people on the TWN articles and Joe Bastardi's tweets were saying.

I hope we get lots of snow this weekend. With the cold air coming in behind, it's my dream winter pattern.

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