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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Solstice

October 10-12, 2018 | Fall Storm | Flooding Potential

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Just dusting off the cobwebs for winter. Let's take a stab at it, shall we?
 

BSR. Looks like it could be a coastal scraper. Notice the eastward track of that high pressure.

Spoiler

2083071970_Webp.net-gifmaker(40).gif.c357a12d9c7a34317694e9e9e3ef384a.gif

 

SOI. Noticable drops on the 11th and 12th. If I recall correctly storms tend to come around the first delta change?

Spoiler

201350751_chart(10).thumb.png.999cb8998b4c154f12c5623a1494d224.png

 

Typhoon Rule / EAR. Included a ridiculously long loop to highlight the activity in the Pacific. Yes, unlikely that all plays out - but the ingredients are there.

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh6-300.thumb.gif.74704b0b952ceafd91c7335da3b4f8be.gif

 

Ran out of patience / skills to try my hand at the the fancy stuff @Poconosnow and @UTSwiinii do. Hopefully all those able to can add :classic_smile:. Here's to an autumn and winter of tracking and snow!

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12 hours ago, Solstice said:

Just dusting off the cobwebs for winter. Let's take a stab at it, shall we?
 

BSR. Looks like it could be a coastal scraper. Notice the eastward track of that high pressure.

  Hide contents

2083071970_Webp.net-gifmaker(40).gif.c357a12d9c7a34317694e9e9e3ef384a.gif

 

SOINoticable drops on the 11th and 12th. If I recall correctly storms tend to come around the first delta change?

  Hide contents

201350751_chart(10).thumb.png.999cb8998b4c154f12c5623a1494d224.png

 

Typhoon Rule / EAR. Included a ridiculously long loop to highlight the activity in the Pacific. Yes, unlikely that all plays out - but the ingredients are there.

  Hide contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh6-300.thumb.gif.74704b0b952ceafd91c7335da3b4f8be.gif

 

Ran out of patience / skills to try my hand at the the fancy stuff @Poconosnow and @UTSwiinii do. Hopefully all those able to can add :classic_smile:. Here's to an autumn and winter of tracking and snow!

The RRWT BeOP wants to play too. Lol.

beop.thumb.png.009f459ebeba471c39e8a1ea199b92d7.png

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On 9/24/2018 at 8:08 PM, Solstice said:

Just dusting off the cobwebs for winter. Let's take a stab at it, shall we?
 

BSR. Looks like it could be a coastal scraper. Notice the eastward track of that high pressure.

  Reveal hidden contents

2083071970_Webp.net-gifmaker(40).gif.c357a12d9c7a34317694e9e9e3ef384a.gif

 

SOINoticable drops on the 11th and 12th. If I recall correctly storms tend to come around the first delta change?

  Hide contents

201350751_chart(10).thumb.png.999cb8998b4c154f12c5623a1494d224.png

 

Typhoon Rule / EAR. Included a ridiculously long loop to highlight the activity in the Pacific. Yes, unlikely that all plays out - but the ingredients are there.

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh6-300.thumb.gif.74704b0b952ceafd91c7335da3b4f8be.gif

 

Ran out of patience / skills to try my hand at the the fancy stuff @Poconosnow and @UTSwiinii do. Hopefully all those able to can add :classic_smile:. Here's to an autumn and winter of tracking and snow!

Regarding the SOID plot your referenced. I see the ND and Canadian border daily H5 anomaly in observed plots and RRWT ~16-20 day analogs. 

 

.

soid.png

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Those storms that hit japan have got to be amazing! If I would work up the courage to fly over there would be awesome to experience.

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On 9/24/2018 at 9:08 PM, Solstice said:

Just dusting off the cobwebs for winter. Let's take a stab at it, shall we?
 

BSR. Looks like it could be a coastal scraper. Notice the eastward track of that high pressure.

  Reveal hidden contents

2083071970_Webp.net-gifmaker(40).gif.c357a12d9c7a34317694e9e9e3ef384a.gif

 

SOINoticable drops on the 11th and 12th. If I recall correctly storms tend to come around the first delta change?

  Reveal hidden contents

201350751_chart(10).thumb.png.999cb8998b4c154f12c5623a1494d224.png

 

Typhoon Rule / EAR. Included a ridiculously long loop to highlight the activity in the Pacific. Yes, unlikely that all plays out - but the ingredients are there.

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh6-300.thumb.gif.74704b0b952ceafd91c7335da3b4f8be.gif

 

Ran out of patience / skills to try my hand at the the fancy stuff @Poconosnow and @UTSwiinii do. Hopefully all those able to can add :classic_smile:. Here's to an autumn and winter of tracking and snow!

The EPS is hinting at a tropical entity tracking north out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. It could be the perpetrator this thread is looking for :police-smiley-emoticon:

10-1 12z EPS h240.png

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

 

The EPS is hinting at a tropical entity tracking north out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. It could be the perpetrator this thread is looking for :police-smiley-emoticon:

10-1 12z EPS h240.png

It would be lovely if it was also the culprit of a major pattern shift and shove that SE ridge out to sea!

Edited by weather_boy2010
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10 hours ago, weather_boy2010 said:

It would be lovely if it was also the culprit of a major pattern shift and shove that SE ridge out to sea!

It definitely could, but IMHO this is a great time of year for warm weather. A cold October day seems like it would be rainy and miserable. Also, the SER pushes the storm track into Canada. Early season snow cover to the north represents a crucial cold air source. From the 00z EPS: 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

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10 hours ago, weather_boy2010 said:

It would be lovely if it was also the culprit of a major pattern shift and shove that SE ridge out to sea!

I wept a little after reading that...

 

 

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Yeah I'd like to see that SE ridge get out of here it's going to be in the mid 80s over the weekend crazy.

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Reduced to a mere FROPA on the 12z GFS today. 

CMC even let go the notion that a TC would entrain in said front and it too has reduced this to a "mere" FROPA. 

Euro (at 00z) looking like CMC and suggests activity in the GOM which originates in the Caribbean and comes up across the YP of Mexico. 

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Just to mention - if this time pd. sees tropical entrainment, the discussion would, pro forma, be placed into the tropics thread created. (As we did during Florence.)

Perhaps we merge this thread at some point. 

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Problem is the first round technically isn't Micheal. Hard to call. I believe the northern low fits the pieces outlines by the BSR the best, and that low does impact the region. However, the transition to Micheal / post-Micheal is blurry and confusing. :classic_wacko:.

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Got a pre soaker very early this morning. Got an inch in my cylinder outside. Reading airport recorded 0.05", Must of been pretty isolated heavy cell.

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Flash flood watch posted for my county (Bennington) and adjacent southern county (Windham). Looking a the bigger picture though (#blurredlines):

43610060_2008311912569048_9038583169183383552_n.png

Edited by telejunkie

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Nam/gfs seem to be inching the heavy rains closer and closer to li.  While this is a great trend in winter where li cashes in, no one wants several inches of rain

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6 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

Nam/gfs seem to be inching the heavy rains closer and closer to li.  While this is a great trend in winter where li cashes in, no one wants several inches of rain

Posted in the hurricane thread as well. Looks like some areas, especially along the immediate coast, will see some heavy rains. Maybe 2 -4 inches or more.

Quote

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
329 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
111000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0012.181011T1600Z-181012T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
329 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut,
  northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the
  following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield,
  Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London,
  Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven,
  and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern
  Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
  Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western
  Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New
  York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau,
  Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk,
  Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland,
  Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens,
  Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk.

* From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night

* A cold front will move across the region Thursday afternoon
  through Thursday night, interacting with tropical moisture,
  resulting in the threat of heavy rainfall.

* Showers, and possible thunderstorms, will develop Thursday
  afternoon and continue into Thursday night, resulting in
  moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts are
  expected to average between 1 to 2 inches with locally higher
  amounts possible. Any heavy rainfall that occurs within a 1-3
  hour window may result in flash flooding. The heaviest rainfall
  is expected to fall across portions of New York City, Long
  Island and southeastern Connecticut.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

 

Some high water too which is to be expected...

Quote

Coastal Flood Statement


Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
445 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

NYZ080-178-179-111000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.CF.S.0052.181012T1300Z-181012T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.S.0053.181011T1300Z-181011T1700Z/
Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
445 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
   THURSDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Along the south shore back bays of Queens, Nassau,
  and southwestern Suffolk counties.

* TIDAL DEPARTURE...Around 1 to locally 2 ft above astronomical.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline.

* TIMING...Around the times of high tide Thursday morning.

 

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Thinking we could have some areas of significant flooding in the MidAtl and SNE later today kind of see a situation developing here. Micheal will continue to bring in abundant Atlantic moisture as it moves into the Carolinas as well as what is feeding the front now as seen in the radar loop. All running up against the lift of the approaching front. I'm thinking anywhere from WV to S/SE PA, NJ, Balt/DC, NYC, LI and Conn will see locally bad flooding and an overall soaking just about the rest of the area. The front coming in going to squeeze out that moisture and it looks like, to me, roughly the area in the green (below) is under the gun with the current timing.

radarmike113.gif

rainsheild.PNG

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Updated radar shows the area filling in with heavy showers and thunderstorms. Setting up for a decent rain storm later this morn and afternoon for most in the area.

radar550.gif

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SPC RAP Meso analysis shows it well - Michael is influencing the Atlantic mid level flow while tapping PWAT in excess of 2. The front is pulling from a source region of less than PWAT=1.

SPC.thumb.PNG.8fe4a59349c23adc1724da243c90003d.PNG

That southerly flow is also upping the potential for severe weather this afternoon - without it, we'd see temp gradient induced rain, but not much more. With Mike's influence, adding the steam to the pot as well as lapse rates we have the ingredients for much more.

 

In both literal and figurative sense, it is Michael that is doing most of the heavy "lifting".

LIFT.thumb.PNG.b049a4013eb365f9163dcb623508ea9b.PNG

 

 

(which is why we could, or should, be discussing the outcome, under that thread - but I'm not trying to dictate that we must) 

 

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

In both literal and figurative sense, it is Michael that is doing most of the heavy "lifting".

 

 

(which is why we could, or should, be discussing the outcome, under that thread - but I'm not trying to dictate that we must) 

 

I hear what you're saying, but in my mind, the direct impacts of Michael are enough to fill that thread. While Michael is going to greatly enhance our regions rainfall, I would still deem it an indirect consequence and shouldn't clutter the thread dealing with it's COC's massive implications for those affected areas. Opinions...:classic_wink:

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69° with heavy rain, 1.25” in the bucket..It has been a rainy last 30 days with near 7” of liquid..

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