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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

UTSwiinii

October 1-4, 2018 | Warm Spell + FROPA + Severe Threat

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For the first time in about a month, we get to dust off the warmer weather leisure suits to take to the disco.

WPC charts for the middle of this time period - to illustrate a general west trough, east ridge set up

9mhwbg_conus.gif.d578205b1e89d8b6954bccfb5c34d3e2.gif

WPC

9/27/18 00z Euro - showing the same west trough (including Rosa coming on stage near Baja) and east ridge (on the continent of course, as the Atlantic is, "currently" (pun realized but not intended) occupied, as it were

EURO.thumb.PNG.0ffb30332cef257b930bfcfa02122513.PNG

Ewall

 

AFDCTP puts it this way - they hedge a bit, but the "keep us on the mild side for much, if not all week, sure sounds nice. 

ACTP.PNG.0ec74f86c5bd2704c874dce1dc589a33.PNG

Caveat to this is that New England might get the short straw on the "warmth", that wavering front will be a bug-a-boo for that region. Here, we go to Albany for some New York styled disco. 

Quote

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Much of the long term portion of the forecast will feature a strong and broad upper level trough across Canada dipping into the northern/northwest U.S., with developing upper level ridging across the southeast CONUS. A tight low/mid level baroclinic zone will exist between these two features, and as of now, appears to set up primarily across the northern Great Lakes region and northern New England. However, with such a tight thermal gradient setting up, the slightest mid/upper level perturbation that passes could end up having larger consequences as to where the surface frontal boundary and/or any waves of low pressure develop/track.

Can we even string together 5 or more days? (MidAtl) Can NE shake the front and get more than 2 of them? 

That is up for discussion which is what we're all about (that, and as MJ would point out, the Hokey Pokey) 

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That SE ridge looking like it's going to be a persistant bugger

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I really hope we have some nice warm days before the cold settles in. As a summer person, it feels like we got screwed out of summer almost entirely this year. Constant rain and humidity, which caused the BSII (blood-sucking insect index) to go off the charts, which in turn made it impossible to spend much time outside. I practically LIVE outside in the summer, but not this one. I took an aptitude test sometime after high school or college, can't remember which, but my results were "Outdoors". Nothing more...just best suited for employment "outdoors". I'm keeping the pool open for a few more weeks, not letting go yet...so bring on the upper 70's with low humidity....PERFECT!!!

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And if that stationary front can stall across northern areas of the region...they're the ones who actually need the precip...so could be a good thing to recharge soil and streamflows up there.

Screen Shot 2018-09-27 at 12.23.11 PM.png

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The hornets are loving this extended heat.  

Since it's nowhere near dry yet, and it would take about ten solid days of low humidity to truly accomplish that, the mosquitoes will continue to flourish.  I think I mentioned the bat-fest in my yard yesterday.  I've never seen anything like it.  A "flock" of bats, feasting on the mosquitoes.  It was like Olive Garden's bread-sticks - an "endless mosquitoes" banquet for them.

They looked well fed, and I'm not kidding.  Those weren't skinny bats.

If this warm up came after a frost, that would be different.  Normally by early October many of us in this zone have seen a frost.  This time, with nothing but an evening or two in the upper 40's as the coldest day of this season?  The bugs are still in full force.

It is what it is.  That ridge is unlike anything I've ever seen.  Even Florence couldn't dislodge it.  That's not "climate;" that's weather.  A current phenomenon, and an unwelcome one.

 

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Retrograding Leslie not helping either.  Nor Rosa cutting to the lakes.  Pwats remaining higher than normal too. That will help keep nighttime lows up. 

Really we need a major trough to come crashing through. Like the one on the 12z Euro. 

Edited by StretchCT
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46 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Really we need a major trough to come crashing through. Like the one on the 12z Euro. 

We should taunt that trough. Make it angry. Get it riled up. 

 

“YOU’RE NOT A TROUGH. YOU’RE JUST A WUSSIE.  A REAL trough would smash that ridge. “

 

You know, that kind of thing. 

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1 hour ago, RobBucksPA said:

We should taunt that trough. Make it angry. Get it riled up. 

 

“YOU’RE NOT A TROUGH. YOU’RE JUST A WUSSIE.  A REAL trough would smash that ridge. “

 

You know, that kind of thing. 

 

*trough whimpers in corner, goes back up to the Arctic*

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Last year i lasted all of October wearing my Tevas to work; October was reasonably mild in SWCT.  I am hoping to do the same this year, though i'm not sure i'm going to be able to....but i'll at least get through the middle of the month, with my b'day in the rear view mirror, before things get ugly.  That's more than i can say for some years.

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I take it that the CTP writer is a PSU fan (?) :6:

Second post goes more to the point of this thread. 

Quote

Dewpoints don`t lower much until after a very weak/dry cold front pushes through tonight. It will be worth the wait with aftn dewpoints only in the 40s on Sat. As the front pushes into the nrn mtns, it could make an isold shower or two. But, PoPs are not necessary south of the northern-most counties. Mins will stay in the u40s in the north as clouds assocd with the front move in. Will leave out mentions of fog for the current pkg due to the clouds. But, some fog is probable in the mid-Susq and West Branch if the clouds don`t get in there, or get there late. Saturday is going to be one of those classic autumn days - perfect for a big football game and the day-long hype which leads to it. Of course, the lawn doesn`t cut itself, and is growing very nicely thanks to all of our recent rainfall. Other than a wide band of clouds sliding through steadily along/behind the front, it should be mostly sunny. Maxes will be about 7F cooler than today in the NW, but just a couple of degs cooler in the central and SErn zones. White t-shirt weather. Temps should be falling slowly through the 50s all evening, meaning you may need to carry a white sweatshirt to put on later in the evening.

Quote

Heights are forecast to rise early in the period and remain high through the end of the period as the southeastern ridge becomes reestablished. With accompanying high pressure at the surface we should remain dry at least through Monday. The NAEFS is advertising a warm-up for next week coincident with the eastern US ridge. A warm front is made to string out just to our north keeping us on the mild side for much if not all week. There is an outside chc for a diurnal/aftn shower over the mtns on Monday as temps rise back above normal. At this time it looks like the ridging will keep significant northern stream energy away from our cwa through mid week. While the GFS makes shra for us on Tues, the EC keeps things to our N. So, a high chc PoP is about all that is warranted at this range. Scattered showers become more-possible late next week. Tues looks like the warmest day, with temps nearing 80F in the south.

 

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Wow - if this....

718665850_greatweather.PNG.e0eb7ed3318bb765cc0c704578320362.PNG

Normal high toady is 67 and drops to 62 by the 12th of Oct.  I think it was Cranky that tweeted the only warmth we'd get was pre frontal.  https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1045332875321724928   I guess it depends on how you define warmth. 

edit:  granted this is the accuweather 15 day outlook.

second edit - Cranky reads these!

third edit - forgot to mention the ave. lows for the time frame are from 47 to 43.

Edited by StretchCT
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Looks like the CTP guy is expecting a white-out!!! :dance2:

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Even though there should be an warm up, it looks like the only day that will have a bit of higher dew points will be on the 2nd of October. the DP temperatures look to range from the low to mid 60s so far.

So generally, even with the temperatures stay warmer for a couple of more days after the thread´s date range, this warm up should feel much more confortable.

Slowly but surely, fall is trying to get it, and with each FROPA, the drier crispy air settles in.

But of course, if we were to get a tropical cyclone or moisture from one in the region, that could change for some days.

 

 

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15 hours ago, RobBucksPA said:

We should taunt that trough. Make it angry. Get it riled up. 

 

“YOU’RE NOT A TROUGH. YOU’RE JUST A WUSSIE.  A REAL trough would smash that ridge. “

 

You know, that kind of thing. 

OLD MAN YELLS AT CLOUD Grampa Simpson The Christian Restoration Association cartoon text yellow comics vertebrate fiction

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Looking at the new models runs, it's looking like the date will have to pushed well after the 4th :classic_angry:to sometime after Columbus Day at this rate. 

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Not that I intend to tread on the other thread dated for today/tomorrow, but...

CTP speaking of nudging temps up in recognition of improved 850 temps, starting tomorrow. I won't adjust dates just to accommodate part of the region - as well as to avoid confusion, so I suppose it's OK if anyone wants to post above norm observations if a day or so before the thread dates. 

Quote

Warm air advection continues on Sunday, and 8H temps rise into the teens yet again. This puts us back into above normal-ness. We may only add another deg or two onto Saturday`s maxes, but will be thinking harder about nudging those Sun maxes upward if we can get more sunshine to the sfc.

 

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3 minutes ago, bradjl2009 said:

Looking at the new models runs, it's looking like the date will have to pushed well after the 4th :classic_angry:to sometime after Columbus Day at this rate. 

 

Just now, UTSwiinii said:

Not that I intend to tread on the other thread dated for today/tomorrow, but...

CTP speaking of nudging temps up in recognition of improved 850 temps, starting tomorrow. I won't adjust dates just to accommodate part of the region - as well as to avoid confusion, so I suppose it's OK if anyone wants to post above norm observations if a day or so before the thread dates. 

 

Uh oh. 

 

:classic_laugh:

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5 hours ago, bradjl2009 said:

Looking at the new models runs, it's looking like the date will have to pushed well after the 4th :classic_angry:to sometime after Columbus Day at this rate. 

Have I mentioned how much I hate this?  It's been warm long enough.  I don't need an ice storm, but 80's into October?  We very rarely have Four genuine Seasons anymore, at least in my opinion.  I'd like some sweater weather already, or at least a sweatshirt!  One or two decent days, and back to heat.  Not to mention the hit retailers take.  My husband is in retail and let's face it, who wants to go sweater and boot shopping when it's 75 degrees?  By the time it gets cold enough it will be the time when retailers start switching out to shorts.  MEH.

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20 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Have I mentioned how much I hate this?  It's been warm long enough.  I don't need an ice storm, but 80's into October?  We very rarely have Four genuine Seasons anymore, at least in my opinion.  I'd like some sweater weather already, or at least a sweatshirt!  One or two decent days, and back to heat.  Not to mention the hit retailers take.  My husband is in retail and let's face it, who wants to go sweater and boot shopping when it's 75 degrees?  By the time it gets cold enough it will be the time when retailers start switching out to shorts.  MEH.

Seriously! I've been noticing this with seasons the last 3 years now too, we really don't have much of a fall or spring anymore. I'm so sick of weeks and constant summer like warmth on September and October like we've had the last few years!! :classic_angry: ENOUGH ALREADY

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I've been looking at seasonal lag lately.  Warmer in fall, cooler in spring. Its anecdotal at this point but some day I'll take a closer look.

In the meantime, here is the 12z Euro temp 24hr temp anomalies through 10 days.   12z EPS control isn't out yet but the only day around normal after today was day 15, which certainly isn't cool.

1432702814_day15epsanomaly.thumb.png.f1fc2471e962fda8d4e11d50530d4d36.png

2016773470_9-2912zeurotempanom.gif.2f98d41b99196a5fee18fa51cd2f8f8c.gif

 

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Or another way of looking at it is the 15 day anomaly.  These are usually not so...dramatic for lack of a better word.

OPEM42S.png

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31 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Or another way of looking at it is the 15 day anomaly.  These are usually not so...dramatic for lack of a better word.

OPEM42S.png

October 14th?! That much above normal? 🤬

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It is an absolutely stellar day here! Sun is shining, sky is blue with a few puffy clouds, mid-70's, low dews!!! 

I have a blatantly IMBY question, because it's literally IMBY! I have enough gas left to get the pool from 60 to 80ish for my last hurrah of the summer. But the night time temps should not go much below 60 to maintain that for the following warm spell. Should I start cranking it now, or tomorrow, or Monday? :classic_biggrin:

I'm sorry, but I am really excited about getting some summer activities in before winter. It was too yucky most of the time to even be outside. 😕

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