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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

UTSwiinii

October 1-4, 2018 | Warm Spell + FROPA + Severe Threat

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1 hour ago, Maureen said:

October 14th?! That much above normal? ūü§¨

One of those threads that could use an angry button like Facebook has

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5 hours ago, StretchCT said:

I've been looking at seasonal lag lately.  Warmer in fall, cooler in spring. Its anecdotal at this point but some day I'll take a closer look.

In the meantime, here is the 12z Euro temp 24hr temp anomalies through 10 days.   12z EPS control isn't out yet but the only day around normal after today was day 15, which certainly isn't cool.

1432702814_day15epsanomaly.thumb.png.f1fc2471e962fda8d4e11d50530d4d36.png

2016773470_9-2912zeurotempanom.gif.2f98d41b99196a5fee18fa51cd2f8f8c.gif

 

My hunch says this lag thing is related to the sea ice. I have zero science whatsoever to back that up. Only thing is we know how important oceans and currents are to atmosphere and climate. All of a sudden (relatively), there is open ocean where before there was none for a large part of the year. Knowing how wonky water is with absorbing and retaining and releasing warmth, seems like the first place to look when weird stuff starts happening. And that doesn't even account in any way for undersea releases of warmth from volcanism which as far as I know we don't have any real way to keep tabs on. Or maybe it's nothing to do with this. :352nmsp:

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WOW! I am actually excited about the warmth! It will make up for the terrible spring we had here. Keeping my pool open 2 more weeks!

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43 minutes ago, suzook said:

WOW! I am actually excited about the warmth! It will make up for the terrible spring we had here. Keeping my pool open 2 more weeks!

Yay!!! I'm going in for some laps later this afternoon!! Water temp was actually 70, not 60, so way ahead of the game!!! Water is sparkling clear with sun glinting off of it!!! Enjoy your pool suzook, swimming in October is one of my favorite things!! ūüėć

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13 hours ago, 1816 said:

My hunch says this lag thing is related to the sea ice. I have zero science whatsoever to back that up. Only thing is we know how important oceans and currents are to atmosphere and climate. All of a sudden (relatively), there is open ocean where before there was none for a large part of the year. Knowing how wonky water is with absorbing and retaining and releasing warmth, seems like the first place to look when weird stuff starts happening. And that doesn't even account in any way for undersea releases of warmth from volcanism which as far as I know we don't have any real way to keep tabs on. Or maybe it's nothing to do with this. :352nmsp:

That's a good point. We've had a lot of these unusually warm falls in the last ten years or so and that also happens to be the the same time period where Arctic sea ice cover overall has really fallen off a cliff compared to where it was for numerous decades before the late 2000's and 2010's.  Three of the last four Septembers have now been the warmest in Pittsburgh  since official observations were moved right out of Downtown. This isn't normal or unless it now is. 

Edited by bradjl2009
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WPC has a battleground for the NE. Cold front flattens the ridge, ridge battles back the next...rinse and repeat.

5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

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We are supposed to reach 75 degrees on Thursday, which might be our warmest high of the month. If this month's warmest day does in fact end up being a 75-degree one, it will match the warmest high in October 2008, 1998, and even 1988, which had a 75-degree day to open the month before the chilly air arrived. 1988 is also the last time we had a sub-20-degree minimum--a rarity.

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Posted (edited)

Not just the hit that retailers take, although that is huge.  Who wants to pick pumpkins, for example, in shorts?  Hot cider?  I think not.

The real issue is the water, at least here in the NE.  Streams are still very swollen.  The groundwater from last week's deluge has not receded - my lawn was a bog even late yesterday afternoon, when it needed to be mowed.   Or rather, "harvested."  It was SO high that the mower struggled.  Some sections of the lawn, the lower areas, actually had water rooster-tailing from the wheels of the tractor.  Absurd, but it is what it is.

I liked cleaning the debris off of my lawn, too, from the flood.  That was great.  I'm glad that the snake I almost mistook for brush was a garter.  If it was a viper, which we have, that could have been interesting.

Washed onto my lawn from the flood.  It was barely alive, until I moved it.  Then it found the energy... again, non-venomous.  Thankfully.

Roofers are taking a beating.  Landscapers had a horrible year.  I had to purchase a full 6-wheeler of fill to replace the washout in my driveway.  The driver told me that business was very bad, even though the backlog was huge.  The water prevents them from delivering soil. Nobody wants mud, or to spread soil in the rain.

Never mind the mosquitoes, which continue to be record-breaking.  Not a freeze, yet, and none in sight.  Hornets continue to enjoy the weather, too.  Yay.

These southern fronts/stalling have destroyed two seasons in the northeast. It is what it is, but it is also terrible.

I read that many farmers can't harvest because things are just too wet.  The last two days were great, but the water still right at the surface would take a week of this kind of dry, crisp weather to remediate - and that's gone.  We're back to Louisiana.

It would have been nice if the farmer's almanac had advised "plant rice..."

 

 

Edited by RobBucksPA
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44 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

Not just the hit that retailers take, although that is huge.  Who wants to pick pumpkins, for example, in shorts?  Hot cider?  I think not.

The real issue is the water, at least here in the NE.  Streams are still very swollen.  The groundwater from last week's deluge has not receded - my lawn was a bog even late yesterday afternoon, when it needed to be mowed.   Or rather, "harvested."  It was SO high that the mower struggled.  Some sections of the lawn, the lower areas, actually had water rooster-tailing from the wheels of the tractor.  Absurd, but it is what it is.

I liked cleaning the debris off of my lawn, too, from the flood.  That was great.  I'm glad that the snake I almost mistook for brush was a garter.  If it was a viper, which we have, that could have been interesting.

Washed onto my lawn from the flood.  It was barely alive, until I moved it.  Then it found the energy... again, non-venomous.  Thankfully.

Roofers are taking a beating.  Landscapers had a horrible year.  I had to purchase a full 6-wheeler of fill to replace the washout in my driveway.  The driver told me that business was very bad, even though the backlog was huge.  The water prevents them from delivering soil. Nobody wants mud, or to spread soil in the rain.

Never mind the mosquitoes, which continue to be record-breaking.  Not a freeze, yet, and none in sight.  Hornets continue to enjoy the weather, too.  Yay.

These southern fronts/stalling have destroyed two seasons in the northeast. It is what it is, but it is also terrible.

I read that many farmers can't harvest because things are just too wet.  The last two days were great, but the water still right at the surface would take a week of this kind of dry, crisp weather to remediate - and that's gone.  We're back to Louisiana.

It would have been nice if the farmer's almanac had advised "plant rice..."

 

 

While it's not funny, the way you narrated was. Hopefully this warm weather will help dry you up a bit, barring any big rains from the many fronts over the next 7-10 days.

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I feel your pain. The water table by me in PA is the highest I have ever seen it. My sump pump is going off every few seconds at times dumping 2-3 gallons each cycle. My 85ft deep well is actually overflowing. My road has a lake on each side of it down a little ways and its starting to give out from the two lakes trying to become one, the road has been closed for over a week now pending repair.

1 hour ago, RobBucksPA said:

Not just the hit that retailers take, although that is huge.  Who wants to pick pumpkins, for example, in shorts?  Hot cider?  I think not.

The real issue is the water, at least here in the NE.  Streams are still very swollen.  The groundwater from last week's deluge has not receded - my lawn was a bog even late yesterday afternoon, when it needed to be mowed.   Or rather, "harvested."  It was SO high that the mower struggled.  Some sections of the lawn, the lower areas, actually had water rooster-tailing from the wheels of the tractor.  Absurd, but it is what it is.

I liked cleaning the debris off of my lawn, too, from the flood.  That was great.  I'm glad that the snake I almost mistook for brush was a garter.  If it was a viper, which we have, that could have been interesting.

Washed onto my lawn from the flood.  It was barely alive, until I moved it.  Then it found the energy... again, non-venomous.  Thankfully.

Roofers are taking a beating.  Landscapers had a horrible year.  I had to purchase a full 6-wheeler of fill to replace the washout in my driveway.  The driver told me that business was very bad, even though the backlog was huge.  The water prevents them from delivering soil. Nobody wants mud, or to spread soil in the rain.

Never mind the mosquitoes, which continue to be record-breaking.  Not a freeze, yet, and none in sight.  Hornets continue to enjoy the weather, too.  Yay.

These southern fronts/stalling have destroyed two seasons in the northeast. It is what it is, but it is also terrible.

I read that many farmers can't harvest because things are just too wet.  The last two days were great, but the water still right at the surface would take a week of this kind of dry, crisp weather to remediate - and that's gone.  We're back to Louisiana.

It would have been nice if the farmer's almanac had advised "plant rice..."

 

 

 

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Hi folks.

More rain will be coming into the area but this time pretty heavy rain to areas farther north where rain is needed, such as in northern NY and northre areas of NE, as a warm front tries to advance into SE Canada but gets stalled out. Then, by late October 2nd, cold front pushes through the region and enhances rain fall to areas father north but also spreads rain, little rains, to areas farther south.

 

Please see below, 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS rainfall forecast products. [ Associated PWATs ranging from ~1 to 1.9 inches].

 

ECMWF:

1904798983_ECMtotalprecip.thumb.png.a317114009544e6821e6ff768fa355cf.png

 

GFS:

374643761_gfstotalprecip.thumb.png.8ead0eb3d4196cac2438c13efec70514.png

 

 

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One of those 50¬į, light rain days, that I find oddly enjoyable.¬†:classic_smile:

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Octuly?!?! Just dumb heat coming to my neck of the woods next week 

5D21773B-634C-4B2D-B0FB-8374434CC1EB.jpeg

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.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tuesday will be another quite warm day, with temps 5-8F above normal. Stability drops early in the day as a ripple of low pressure moves along the warm front just to our north, while some semblance of a lee trough at the sfc forms across the Middle/Lower Susq Valley. A flattish shortwave at mid and upper levels moves quickly east from the midwest states and will touch off showers and some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms over practically any location in Central and Northern PA during the afternoon. The best llvl EHI and the potential for transient supercells, will come first across far northern PA (near the quasi-stnry front) where values will reach around 2 m2/s2. enhanced llvl shear and some pockets of enhanced ML cape right near or just to the north of the boundary will yield EHI values of around 2.5 j/kg. Otheriwse, with fairly unidriectional and moderately strong deep-layer shear across the southern half to two-thirds of PA, fast-moving, bowing line segments will be the most common tstm type. The severe weather threat will gradually taper off across the NW mtns and settle to the southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. Enough CAPE and stronger winds aloft exist to elevate the convective risk to SLIGHT across most of PA, with a MRGL risk filling in the remainder of the region along the northern and southern borders of PA. Basin average rainfall form the upcoming round or few of convection will be mainly between 0.25 and 0.50 an inch, though some localized places seeing several TSTMS could receive around 0.75 of an inch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The big stories for the mid to long term are a cold frontal passage on Tuesday/night and the dominant southeastern US upper ridge. There could be some post-frontal, lingering precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most of Wednesday and all of Thursday will be dry as a ridge builds over the area. However, a ribbon of moisture will move over the area late Thursday into Friday with an unsettled pattern setting up for the weekend.

Discussion of CAPE and Elevated Helicity -- in Oct"toaster". I say it's Summer's revenge (or should I say - amends) for the Season that Skipped (*which is what I call summer)

 

CTP mentions the front passing, but that only has a brief blunting affect as typically temps are in the lower 70's around here. Even Wednesday ends up nearer 80 and Thursday over 80. Then we go back to projected 73F for Friday (average seasonal temps, as I mentioned earlier). That is why I did not extend the dates (yet) - waiting to see if a majority of the region also "Falls" back to seasonal. 

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I find it awkward, to have a thread already open for the dates - and this one as well. Moreso now that much of PA is in SR category via SPC

SPC Day 2 Outlook

I am open to any and all suggestions on how our members should deal with this confusion among the threads and dates. (i.e. - which one has the storm discussion? The one I created about warmth (which leads to said severe potential); or this one)

I propose a merger and re-title is in order - but I will not do so, unilaterally. 

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

I find it awkward, to have a thread already open for the dates - and this one as well. Moreso now that much of PA is in SR category via SPC

SPC Day 2 Outlook

I am open to any and all suggestions on how our members should deal with this confusion among the threads and dates. (i.e. - which one has the storm discussion? The one I created about warmth (which leads to said severe potential); or this one)

I propose a merger and re-title is in order - but I will not do so, unilaterally. 

Hi UTS. 

I see what you mean.

I opened the thread because I recall from Accu, albeit this is no Accuweather, that back then we has temperature and precipitation threads separate.

The thread I created is soly for precipitation, and didi not have the intention to cover a posdible convecitve event.

Do we prefer then to severe weather, non severe weather precipitation and temperatures discussed in the same thread?

If so, it's cool to merge and retitle, UTS.

And folks, sorry for any confusion.

 

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Looking at the temperature anomalies, I'm not seeing a big divider between the precipitation and heat. I'd say the best path would be to combine the threads, noting both the warmth and precipitation / severe threat.

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Discussion of CAPE and Elevated Helicity -- in Oct"toaster". I say it's Summer's revenge (or should I say - amends) for the Season that Skipped (*which is what I call summer)

 

CTP mentions the front passing, but that only has a brief blunting affect as typically temps are in the lower 70's around here. Even Wednesday ends up nearer 80 and Thursday over 80. Then we go back to projected 73F for Friday (average seasonal temps, as I mentioned earlier). That is why I did not extend the dates (yet) - waiting to see if a majority of the region also "Falls" back to seasonal. 

Those high SSTs off the mid Atlantic coast as compared to the normal, allowing for persistent high pressure to rebuild off the east coast and pkus the SE ridge that wants to play too, really has held the region hostage. And it seems no ransom so far is enough to release the hostage.

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3 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Discussion of CAPE and Elevated Helicity -- in Oct"toaster". I say it's Summer's revenge (or should I say - amends) for the Season that Skipped (*which is what I call summer)

 

CTP mentions the front passing, but that only has a brief blunting affect as typically temps are in the lower 70's around here. Even Wednesday ends up nearer 80 and Thursday over 80. Then we go back to projected 73F for Friday (average seasonal temps, as I mentioned earlier). That is why I did not extend the dates (yet) - waiting to see if a majority of the region also "Falls" back to seasonal. 

Duly copyrighted. We start printing the t shirts tomorrow. :dancing-banana-homer-simpson-smiley-emoticon:

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On 9/29/2018 at 4:14 PM, StretchCT said:

I've been looking at seasonal lag lately.  Warmer in fall, cooler in spring. Its anecdotal at this point but some day I'll take a closer look.

In the meantime, here is the 12z Euro temp 24hr temp anomalies through 10 days.   12z EPS control isn't out yet but the only day around normal after today was day 15, which certainly isn't cool.

1432702814_day15epsanomaly.thumb.png.f1fc2471e962fda8d4e11d50530d4d36.png

2016773470_9-2912zeurotempanom.gif.2f98d41b99196a5fee18fa51cd2f8f8c.gif

 

There is something too that seasonal lag idea not sure what exactly it is yet but it is surely interesting to see happen. Gotta have a couple more years where we have similar ideas come about and then we can start to nail down what may be causing all this, maybe...

On 9/29/2018 at 10:05 PM, 1816 said:

My hunch says this lag thing is related to the sea ice. I have zero science whatsoever to back that up. Only thing is we know how important oceans and currents are to atmosphere and climate. All of a sudden (relatively), there is open ocean where before there was none for a large part of the year. Knowing how wonky water is with absorbing and retaining and releasing warmth, seems like the first place to look when weird stuff starts happening. And that doesn't even account in any way for undersea releases of warmth from volcanism which as far as I know we don't have any real way to keep tabs on. Or maybe it's nothing to do with this. :352nmsp:

Yea I check out the board at american with sea ice discussion and nevins sea ice forum and man oh man the consensus is that 2007 was the first true I guess you may call it breaking point of the Arctic. We may be on the verge of another stepdown process in the next couple years/ if not happening already. The fact that those folks and NSIDC has posted that the Arctic while still experiencing the warmth has had some rather low pressure in the region, large scale overall, the last time they were this low was in 1997. Thats saying something again still not fully sure how things will play out in this aspect. There a couple ways it can either be a gradual thing or it snaps like a rubber band into a new regime. Feel the latter may be more of a situation then originally thought and what new things will come from that is beyond anyone I feel right now until we see it happen. Get ready for some more interesting times to come about.

Until then enjoy the heat because the winter is coming not to sound like whatever that show is on HBO, I think its game of thrones...

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Whoo boy - (don't read further if you do not like warm)

 

Recent model suites indicating that the average or below average, temp anom's, are the exception rather than the rule. 

WPC discussion (extended) mentions the trough entrenched out west and the SER (southeast ridge) firmly anchored in a blocking position. 

WPC Extended

#Oct-"toaster". 

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Another hazy morning here in Baton Rouge, Pennsylvania.

That image is not of asphalt, textured leather, or alligator hide - although I'm waiting to see gators in my stream, at this point.

No, that's the roof of my car.  So much water that it is dripping down the downspouts.  The grass is sodden, having never dried from the last rain, which hadn't dried from the previous heavy dew, which hadn't dried from the previous deluge, which... well, you get the idea.

It could be worse.  

 

 

image.png.cf8cf93c326ee5230637a7fb8b4335db.png

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

Another hazy morning here in Baton Rouge, Pennsylvania.

That image is not of asphalt, textured leather, or alligator hide - although I'm waiting to see gators in my stream, at this point.

No, that's the roof of my car.  So much water that it is dripping down the downspouts.  The grass is sodden, having never dried from the last rain, which hadn't dried from the previous heavy dew, which hadn't dried from the previous deluge, which... well, you get the idea.

It could be worse.  

 

 

image.png.cf8cf93c326ee5230637a7fb8b4335db.png

"Now stop complaining Robbucks. There are dessicated people in the four corners who would love to have the luxury of your water." :classic_laugh:

current_usdm.thumb.png.dde48a44a81ee5178a69fd4b76dfb435.png

Edited by 1816
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36 minutes ago, 1816 said:

"Now stop complaining Robbucks. There are dessicated people in the four corners who would love to have the luxury of your water." :classic_laugh:

 

I have to admit, I *DO* feel guilty about this, sometimes.  God has a plan.  All I can do is be thankful for every day... or complain, which is easier.  But wrong...

I will say this, here at WXD we should consider a thread on the long term calamity that is heading towards the US West.  The over use of the ancient aquifers is irreversible in any reasonable amount of time.  The over use of ground water is absurd.  California had better hope that Lockheed can get their fusion aspirations online, so that they can begin desalinating the Pacific at levels heretofore unknown.  

Every time I see an ad for California Dairy I cringe.  Why are we wasting water to make butter in CA, when the other dairy areas are awash in water and other essentials?

While the US Press continues to pander to Washington DC power brokers, they nearly ignore the environmental calamity in our own backyard.  This goes way beyond drought, since groundwater is only part of the story.  When the Oglala, and other aquifers, are tapped out?

Then what?

I still don't need any more water, mind you.  Everything is soaked.  Moss is growing in places I didn't think possible.  The odor of the onion grass is particularly fart-like this year.  I mean, enough is enough... for me.

But out west?  You are correct.  At some point, perhaps soon, they will kill for water like we have on this side of the continent...

 

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Not much of a warm-up here; it's drizzling and about 60* this morning.  Supposed to get to 75, but i'll believe it when i see it. 

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