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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

telejunkie

Oct 3-14, 2018 | Storm Train | Mnt Snow & Heavy Rain

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A series of s/w enter the west coast in this time frame, possibly collectively digging enough into the trough to cut-off and  hammer the high peaks from the Sangre de Cristos up through Big Sky country. A wide swath of the  4-corners and intermountain west look to benefit from these, besides some of the typical desert locales. Would be a good start for wet season for them...

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Screen Shot 2018-10-03 at 1.56.42 PM.png

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By the way  .. I assume Denver counts as the plains and not intermountain west, since Denver isn’t inter mountain!   That would be Salt Lake.

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2 hours ago, Denver Weather said:

By the way  .. I assume Denver counts as the plains and not intermountain west, since Denver isn’t inter mountain!   That would be Salt Lake.

That’s a tough one since Denver sits right on the cusp...personally still consider the big D to be part of intermountain, but understand that it may lie just outside. Those classic upslope events of the front range are a weather event into their own though...kinda like the “lake effect” events of the cottonwood canyons. Those both to me are some signature intermountain events

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Nice to see a post about snow! Very active period right into next week stretching into the Upper midwest (need a snow thread there people!). Several shots at snow and cold air.

GFS has a nice storm in the middle of this time frame.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh72-132.gif

CMC a little slower but concurs

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh72-150.gif

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Wet and cold. Obvious the SE ridge isn't budging for a looong while so get used to the humidity and wet weather in the east for the most part. Trough out West will be good for the drought conditions and early start on snow pack.

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7 hours ago, PlanetMaster said:

Wet and cold. Obvious the SE ridge isn't budging for a looong while so get used to the humidity and wet weather in the east for the most part. Trough out West will be good for the drought conditions and early start on snow pack.

And now Sergio could add quite an extra punch too. Would be big cause for concern of flash flooding....

Long term definitely looking fairly good from a good chunk of western CONUS considering 86% is currently listed as dry and 60% in drought: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West

Gonna be a long road to meaningful recovery, but this could definitely be a step in the right direction for the region.

Edited by telejunkie

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Winter Storms Warnings are up for up to 15 inches,  I believe first of the Season?

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
253 PM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...EARLY SEASON STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

WYZ114-081200-
/O.EXT.KCYS.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-181009T1200Z/
Snowy Range-
Including the cities of Centennial and Albany
253 PM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches,
  with local amounts of up to 15 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Snowy Mountain Range. Highest amounts above 9000 feet.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect slick, snow covered roads and areas
  of low visibility. Mountain travel may be difficult or
  impossible. Outdoor recreation will be extremely dangerous and
  life threatening to those caught outdoors and unprepared.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

cys.png

radarsnow.gif

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Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough over the Rockies will remain quasi-stationary through Wednesday. The energy will aid in producing rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Central Rockies and parts of the Great Basin/Southwest that will continue over the area through Wednesday. Weak onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest will aid in producing rain over the Northwest through Monday evening. Overnight Monday additional upper-level energy will move southeastward from Western Canada into the Great Basin by Wednesday. Rain will expand into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region with snow developing over the higher elevations by Tuesday morning and into parts of the Northern Rockies by Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Now thats a sharpie!

trough.PNG

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9-14" for Little Cottonwood for tonight into tomorrow and just an HWO posted? :classic_blink:

Screen Shot 2018-10-09 at 12.26.00 PM.png

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Throw in a couple NWS notifications to the mix about this event.

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The next week looks really snowy for the mountain west, with more snow over the weekend.

 

Here's a great webcam to follow the coming transformation from Fall to Winter for the high country.

 

Aspen Panorama

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*Sigh*

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1137 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...First Significant Snow of the Season...

SDZ006>008-011-018-021-100045-
/O.EXB.KABR.WW.Y.0020.181010T0500Z-181011T0000Z/
Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Spink-Grant-
Including the cities of Aberdeen, Britton, Sisseton, Webster,
Redfield, and Milbank
1137 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Rain moving in this afternoon and evening will switch
  over to snow after midnight into early Wednesday morning. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. North winds
  will gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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3 hours ago, SoDakFarmer said:

*Sigh*



 

have you seen snow yet? Was checking out your PWS and saw you've got hard freeze checked off the decent into winter checklist, wondering if you already have first snow checked off as well...

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21 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

have you seen snow yet? Was checking out your PWS and saw you've got hard freeze checked off the decent into winter checklist, wondering if you already have first snow checked off as well...

Not yet, and what we get tonight won’t stick around long.  Hopefully get a good long string of at least normal weather after this, there’s a lot of crops still out there in this area!  Probably 80% of everything is still in the fields.

 

Guys are getting cranky lol.

 

 

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Denver could see its first snowstorm of the year this weekend.  Light snow is possible tonight in Denver.

 

FXUS65 KBOU 092127
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
327 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018


From Friday through Saturday, the upper trough over Nevada is
forecast to cut-off from the northern storm track and dive
southwestward of the coast of southern California. This will allow
a weak upper level ridge to develop over Colorado. This will cut
off the flow of moisture out of the desert southwest and allow the
airmass over Colorado to begin drying out. Friday and Saturday
look like they will have much less cloud cover and temperatures on
the plains returning to the 50s by Saturday. Mountain areas will
also be dry, but the presence of fresh snow on the ground will
help keep the temperatures from warming too much.

The return of dry weather looks to be short-lived as all of the
medium range models are in agreement in bringing a strong short
wave out of southwest Canada that sweeps over Colorado Saturday
night and Sunday. A strong cold front and significant shot of cold
air aloft will accompany the diving trough. Snow is forecast to
spread from the mountains out onto the plains Saturday night and
Sunday morning. Much colder temperatures will follow on Sunday
with highs on the plains possibly only in the lower 30s.
Significant snow accumulations will be possible. We will wait to
see if subsequent model runs continue to forecast this pattern. No
weather highlights for this time period yet, but that may change.


Edited by Denver Weather

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The white stuff interests me more than Michael, keep it coming!

radar.gif

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Most snow I've found so far is at  Wolf Creek Ski Area with 20 inches.   Also, Crested Butte Ski area -  has a solid 11 inches with more on the way.    Lot more snow between now and Monday,  with a decent chance for  Denver Saturday night into Sunday.  Might have snow for the Bronco game on Sunday.  Wolf Creek opens on Saturday - October 13th! First in the country.   

https://the-journal.com/articles/113153-wolf-creek-opens-early-for-weekend-skiers

Wolf Creek snowfall:

bJ1NPvYu?format=jpg%26name=600x314&key=8

 

10_10%20Pow%20Cam%20.jpg

Tab1FileL.png?8e9d9cf8e9f0e01fbf2cb06ee5

 

Adding Powderhorn from SW Colorado:

la.jpg

 

Looking January-like.

 

Edited by Denver Weather
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Caboose looks to be coming down the Front Range with an upslope event early next week...looking to link up with some remnant energy from Sergio with snow potential all the way down to the TX panhandle. Unfortunately this one looks to miss the 4 corners which probably most needs the precip.

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USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_108.gif

Edited by telejunkie

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20 hours ago, Denver Weather said:

Moderate snow now in Denver.    Welcome back, winter!
 

chpark.jpglibrary.jpg

was great to see yesterday - this weekend's storm not looking that impressive past couple of Euro and CMC (i know I know) runs but would be happy if we could squeak out a couple early-season inches. 

Edited by ColoradoWx

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42 minutes ago, ColoradoWx said:

was great to see yesterday - this weekend's storm not looking that impressive past couple of Euro and CMC (i know I know) runs but would be happy if we could squeak out a couple early-season inches. 

GFS is trying to talk us into a 5 inch snow event for Denver.  Also, I love the massive snow dump in Northern New Mexico and Texas Panhandle (from a left-over hurricane, no less!).  Up to a foot of snow in the Panhandle in mid-October.  Nice!  Classic El Nino winter pattern, no?

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

Edited by Denver Weather

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Another look at 12z GFS snow totals through next Thursday early morning hours...pretty impressive! Sangre de Cristos get hammered on. Ensnares that energy over the SW and doesn't want to let go...would be impressive if it comes to fruition...wouldn't hold my breath though. :classic_sleep:

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_165.gif

Edited by telejunkie

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