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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

bobbo428

October 6-10, 2018 | Warm Spell

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I decided to go and start the thread for the upcoming warmup. The one from this week has yet to pan out--in fact, today is merely average. However, we should get some 70s--possibly even upper-70s--out of this.

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But it has "panned out" for a good portion of the region. That it may not have in your backyard is inconsequential to the main theme of the warm up (I started the previous thread with the caveat that NE might miss out).

I'll have to decide whether to merge the two thread and extend dates because some (in the S part of the region, including IMBY) have seen above normal the past two days and that looks to roll on through the weekend. 

I am inclined to let this one stand alone though - due to Friday being "just" average here (and Saturday as well) - I only lament that you've started the thread with no supporting maps, discussions, etc. We do prefer that posts are created with at least some kind of backing. 

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Kbuf 

Quote

..Mother Nature to Revisit Early August Temperatures...

An anomalously strong sub tropical ridge (Bermuda High) centered
over the Outer Banks of North Carolina will guarantee that our
temperatures that average WELL above normal during this period...
particular as we push into the new work week. To start with...the
strength of the ridging is forecast to be 4 to 5 STD above normal
for this time of year...and that equates to having a >30 year return
interval. Daytime mercury readings that will reach into the 60s and
lower 70s on Sunday will climb through the 70s to around 80 (western
counties) for Columbus Day before fairly widespread 80s can be
expected for Tuesday. The latter will flirt with record
temperatures...which for Tuesday currently stand at 81 (1909) in
Buffalo and 78 (1970) in Watertown. Rochester should be safe with
their record for Tuesday at 88 (1949). The unusual warmth will be
accompanied by generally dry weather...although a few showers cannot
be ruled out on Sunday.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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8 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

I remember that day in 1970--the earliest Oct. 9 I have a strong memory of. I recall hanging out with neighborhood kids well after dark. To put that date into perspective, it was the day before Neil Diamond had his first No. 1 pop hit, with "Cracklin Rosie." Yeah, I'm an old guy--I like a lot of Neil's songs. 

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NWS has delivered a fly in the ointment for us already:  the warm front is supposed to take two whole days to move north, so we might be getting wet rather than warm weather. And by the time it moves through, next Wednesday's cold front will have arrived. It is eerily like the same week in 1990--we'd often be very close to the daily record high when a cold front would swing through. The years 1990 and 2018 have the dates falling on the same day of he week--and, strangely enough, I believe that the first half of October 1962 (28 years in the other direction)was much the same way. However, November 1962 was much colder than November 1990 in upstate NY.

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Well this is definitely going to be our warmest stretch in October since 2007..... That October gave us 4 days above 85 and not a single day with a high below 75 until the 10th day of the month. It looks like at the moment we'll be just short of that mark daily, but who knows since it's still a few days away. 

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15 hours ago, bradjl2009 said:

Well this is definitely going to be our warmest stretch in October since 2007..... That October gave us 4 days above 85 and not a single day with a high below 75 until the 10th day of the month. It looks like at the moment we'll be just short of that mark daily, but who knows since it's still a few days away. 

The last time we reached 80 degrees officially in October was on 10/8/07. It reached 79 here the next day, but the warmest we've been since has been 78 on 10/9/11 and one year ago today, 10/4/17.

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21 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

But it has "panned out" for a good portion of the region.

 

I'm +9 for the 2nd-4th at both my nearest airports.  Though we didn't get near 80 like I was hoping.

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Posted (edited)

May as well start tackin some numbers on to this surge...following is 12z GFS for the afternoon of the 10th. While anomalies may not be as strong in the southern part of our region (no 90s in Virginia) as currently...the northern part of our region is looking as some pretty impressive anomalies (15-20F above average). Can somebody say "baroclinic zone"?  (80s around Bangor, 40s up near Presque Isle :352nmsp:)

Screen Shot 2018-10-04 at 1.57.08 PM.png

Edited by telejunkie

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I know this will come as a shock, but it's raining here! 😲 Cloudy and muggy this morning, sun came out so figured I'd go down to East Pete and check the flowers at the historical society house and get back in time for a swim. Hotter than blazes at 1pm down there, bright sunlight, humid as crap, sweating and swatting mosquitoes which is the norm anytime you go outside. Nice and cool in the old house, lost track of time in the archives, looked out the window...NOOO!!! Sky was dark, so I packed up, remembering I left all the freaking windows open at home. Started raining a few miles from home, but the sky was black to the nw. Got home in time for the downpour, but not windy, just more rain which we didn't need. 

I'm sorry I don't have any maps or graphs, just a little observation, you could say, from my neck of the woods.

I have to go scratch my bites now, you have no idea....

"I guess I shall swim in the rain", she said. :laurel-and-hardy-dancing-smiley-emoticon:

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5 minutes ago, lynniethelurker said:

I know this will come as a shock, but it's raining here! 😲 Cloudy and muggy this morning, sun came out so figured I'd go down to East Pete and check the flowers at the historical society house and get back in time for a swim. Hotter than blazes at 1pm down there, bright sunlight, humid as crap, sweating and swatting mosquitoes which is the norm anytime you go outside. Nice and cool in the old house, lost track of time in the archives, looked out the window...NOOO!!! Sky was dark, so I packed up, remembering I left all the freaking windows open at home. Started raining a few miles from home, but the sky was black to the nw. Got home in time for the downpour, but not windy, just more rain which we didn't need. 

I'm sorry I don't have any maps or graphs, just a little observation, you could say, from my neck of the woods.

I have to go scratch my bites now, you have no idea....

"I guess I shall swim in the rain", she said. :laurel-and-hardy-dancing-smiley-emoticon:

I had some very difficult times with mosquitoes myself from late July through mid-September. It is the worst I can remember since the 1970s, if ever.

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WPC Extended - in a nutshell, anchored Eastern Ridge as well as W Trough for the medium range time pd. Set up conducive to allowing tropical troublemakers to ride slow moving front.

WPC

IOW - those skeeters aren't going anywhere anytime soon. More anom overnight warmth and probably well above seasonal temps (5-10+ I would guess)

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CTP sez we may be heading into record territory. I like how they mention H5 at a stout 594dm. 

CTP.PNG.4732729f36838960b2ac11aa9fdc05c5.PNG

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7 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

CTP sez we may be heading into record territory. I like how they mention H5 at a stout 594dm. 

CTP.PNG.4732729f36838960b2ac11aa9fdc05c5.PNG

Yikes!! And my hackles go up when I see the last paragraph...."as ridge begins to break down" and "cold front attempts to slide in"....I've heard that tune too many times the past couple of months, skeptical, I am.

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33 minutes ago, bobbo428 said:

I had some very difficult times with mosquitoes myself from late July through mid-September. It is the worst I can remember since the 1970s, if ever.

At this point I don't see how I've avoided West Nile Virus! :classic_wacko:

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27 minutes ago, lynniethelurker said:

Yikes!! And my hackles go up when I see the last paragraph...."as ridge begins to break down" and "cold front attempts to slide in"....I've heard that tune too many times the past couple of months, skeptical, I am.

Yep - the "pattern" may be interrupted, briefly, but it reloads in somewhat same fashion - a blocking ridge shuts precip at the edges. We're either rainy and warm, or sunny and darned near hot. For my money, this is just a continuation of that which spoiled Summer - maybe a younger brother but could foil Fall. At least this first portion. :classic_dry:

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23 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Yep - the "pattern" may be interrupted, briefly, but it reloads in somewhat same fashion - a blocking ridge shuts precip at the edges. We're either rainy and warm, or sunny and darned near hot. For my money, this is just a continuation of that which spoiled Summer - maybe a younger brother but could foil Fall. At least this first portion. :classic_dry:

When is this going to end? Is it ever going to end? Is it just going to stay muggy and warm forever at this point? That’s what it feels like. 🤯

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38 minutes ago, Maureen said:

When is this going to end? Is it ever going to end? Is it just going to stay muggy and warm forever at this point? That’s what it feels like. 🤯

well, another "good" thing is that this time, the cold front looks to actually make a dent for a while, and the BSR sure looks a lot less warm just there after (more troughiness in the eastern half of the nation). It's not a strong signal though, so still probably could go either way and even then, with a fine line between comfy and nasty. 

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2 hours ago, Maureen said:

When is this going to end? Is it ever going to end? Is it just going to stay muggy and warm forever at this point? That’s what it feels like. 🤯

A lot of the models are for now hinting at this ending sometime between Thursday and Saturday of next week. I'm sick of this and the high dews too, at least the next 36 hours will be a reprieve from it here. 

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8 hours ago, bobbo428 said:

The last time we reached 80 degrees officially in October was on 10/8/07. It reached 79 here the next day, but the warmest we've been since has been 78 on 10/9/11 and one year ago today, 10/4/17.

Where are you? We hit 80 last year in October too and before that, 2013 so it happens here and there this far south sadly. 

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2 hours ago, bradjl2009 said:

Where are you? We hit 80 last year in October too and before that, 2013 so it happens here and there this far south sadly. 

I am near Binghamton, in upstate New York. However, our official reporting station is about 1600 feet above sea level, thus explaining the paucity of official 80-plus-degree temperatures--a whopping 11 from 1951 (when that station opened) to now.

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Right now my forecast is for 80 or higher, and very muggy, for Sun through Wed, and into Thursday.  That's mid-October, gang, with a heat index pushing 90, if they are right.  The mosquitoes are having little mini parades, celebrating their greatest year since the Cambrian age.  

Sorry, but at this point it is fair to say that Autumn has been canceled.  There will be no gradual and pleasant cool down.  Rather, at some point there simply won't be enough sunshine to maintain this fiasco and we will go from hot to cold.  Autumn appears to be today and tomorrow, here in Bucks County.  Enjoy it.

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1 hour ago, RobBucksPA said:

Right now my forecast is for 80 or higher, and very muggy, for Sun through Wed, and into Thursday.  That's mid-October, gang, with a heat index pushing 90, if they are right.  The mosquitoes are having little mini parades, celebrating their greatest year since the Cambrian age.  

Sorry, but at this point it is fair to say that Autumn has been canceled.  There will be no gradual and pleasant cool down.  Rather, at some point there simply won't be enough sunshine to maintain this fiasco and we will go from hot to cold.  Autumn appears to be today and tomorrow, here in Bucks County.  Enjoy it.

We got to 81F here on Oct 22 last year...definitely was a very late start to fall last year as well, but then again, we didn't have much heat during the summer months (never hit 90s during the summer time here last year). We got our first frost last year on Oct 17th. We'll see what happens with Sergio but it could help drag down some cold in its wake and provide more widespread frost-freeze advisories for the region.

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They have lowered our maxes for this--we look to be getting zero records tied or broken out of this. If it's going to be warm, we might as well try to break a record or two. This month has been notorious for near-misses. In addition, we have had only three daily record lows--two of which occurred on the same date. I had a feeling they'd lower the maxes because the forecasts have busted low all week. Monday was about two degrees lower than predicted, and Tuesday was about five degrees cooler. Wednesday's high of 62 was recorded as we came into the day, and we were in the upper-50s in the mid-afternoon when we were supposed to be 66. Yesterday was supposed to be 71 (down from a previous prediction of 74), but we only reached 67. The forecasters should realize that we need sunshine this time of year to reach the 70s at this latitude.  I have a feeling we could be backdoored next week at this rate.

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3 hours ago, bobbo428 said:

They have lowered our maxes for this--we look to be getting zero records tied or broken out of this. If it's going to be warm, we might as well try to break a record or two. This month has been notorious for near-misses. In addition, we have had only three daily record lows--two of which occurred on the same date. I had a feeling they'd lower the maxes because the forecasts have busted low all week. Monday was about two degrees lower than predicted, and Tuesday was about five degrees cooler. Wednesday's high of 62 was recorded as we came into the day, and we were in the upper-50s in the mid-afternoon when we were supposed to be 66. Yesterday was supposed to be 71 (down from a previous prediction of 74), but we only reached 67. The forecasters should realize that we need sunshine this time of year to reach the 70s at this latitude.  I have a feeling we could be backdoored next week at this rate.

Valid point.

Meanwhile, we of the more southern climes face a continued Aug-tober except for one or two day teases until we go pretty much right back rinse, repeat. 

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