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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Solstice

October 12-31*, 2018 | Repeated Cold Blasts | End of Growing Season

Solstice

The * indicates days of exception to the thread rule.

In this case, the days of exception are October 15, and October 20.

Message added by Solstice

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Looks like there is light at the end of the tunnel! Starting to narrow in on a pattern change following the October 10-12 storm / tropical system. Dare I say the end of the growing season? Maybe even a first snow for certain areas?

 

FV3-GFS temperature anomalies. Obviously not accurate to the latter sections of the loop, but just goes to show the shift of the cold air mass. 

Spoiler

fv3p_T2ma_namer_fh102-294.gif.cd049d666ec9ceb42b0bd46987e624e1.gif

 

FV3-GFS 500 mb anomalies. Tropical systems look to play an important role. Usually when the forecast hour is under 200 (180 for the "safe" side) the overall scope is "accurate." At least I hope. :classic_laugh:.

Spoiler

fv3p_z500a_namer_fh0-192.gif.fb5bef2a0786f76dd1f1a481011be8a0.gif

 

WPC Day 5 surface forecast. Beautiful, beautiful high pressure following in the wake of the storms.

Spoiler

9lhwbg_conus.gif.6ac4518222f16996db37378f54a51a35.gif

 

CPC Week 3-4 temperature probabilities. I'll drop this here to corroborate the "?" date.

Spoiler

WK34temp.gif.47a27ae79f9186d0cf1ad4d3998161d9.gif

 

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Posted (edited)
Quote
Kbuf

Strong cold advection Thursday night will encourage H85 temps to
plummet to around -1C by daybreak Friday. 00Z model guidance has
trended even colder, supporting temperatures even a few degrees
colder for the Thursday night through Saturday time period
 

Friday will feature a distinct autumn chill across the region...as
expansive high pressure centered over the plains will extend
eastward across the Great Lakes. While this will favor fair weather
for most of us...there may be some lingering lake effect rain showers
southeast of both lakes. Any nuisance activity will dwindle during
the course of the day though due to a lowering subsidence cap and
late season diurnal mixing. Temperatures Friday should not climb out
of the 50s.

Finally on Saturday...a subtle shortwave will approach the area and
moisture from this combined with continued cold air aloft may result
in another round of lake effect rain showers. There remains some
disagreement among model guidance on the timing and track of this
shortwave. Temperatures will be similar to those from Friday...if
not a couple degrees lower.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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Posted (edited)

Some long range flakes on the goofus, right around the time we normally see our first flakes..

545493ED-AA1F-438A-8B6C-BF913CBC8BB4.jpeg

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Solstice said:

Looks like there is light at the end of the tunnel! Starting to narrow in on a pattern change following the October 10-12 storm / tropical system. Dare I say the end of the growing season? Maybe even a first snow for certain areas?

 

FV3-GFS temperature anomalies. Obviously not accurate to the latter sections of the loop, but just goes to show the shift of the cold air mass. 

  Reveal hidden contents

fv3p_T2ma_namer_fh102-294.gif.cd049d666ec9ceb42b0bd46987e624e1.gif

 

FV3-GFS 500 mb anomalies. Tropical systems look to play an important role. Usually when the forecast hour is under 200 (180 for the "safe" side) the overall scope is "accurate." At least I hope. :classic_laugh:.

  Reveal hidden contents

fv3p_z500a_namer_fh0-192.gif.fb5bef2a0786f76dd1f1a481011be8a0.gif

 

WPC Day 5 surface forecast. Beautiful, beautiful high pressure following in the wake of the storms.

  Reveal hidden contents

9lhwbg_conus.gif.6ac4518222f16996db37378f54a51a35.gif

 

CPC Week 3-4 temperature probabilities. I'll drop this here to corroborate the "?" date.

  Hide contents

WK34temp.gif.47a27ae79f9186d0cf1ad4d3998161d9.gif

 

Looks like us down here in South Eastern PA. will be spared for a little while. Would love to harvest all of our cold crop before a hard freeze as it 

is still growing 

Edited by geeter1
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I've been watching this pattern change on the GFS and CMC for the last 5 days now and was wondering who the brave soul to risk jinxing it would be with a thread ;). I am daring to say this this looks like the event that will finally end any of the summer like warmth until next year for those of us in the North. I've noticed too the models have been liking the idea of the first widespread frost/freeze for areas outside of Northern New England around next Sunday to Tuesday. The GFS has been very consistent with showing  nothing really above normal for its entire range after Thursday/Friday for the area, so hopefully we can have an extended period of at or below normal weather after this pattern that began in late August of much more warmth than cold. 

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I'm ready going to be close to 90 here today.iwant it to frost I'm tired of cutting grass.😁

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1 hour ago, Scott Deems said:

I'm ready going to be close to 90 here today.iwant it to frost I'm tired of cutting grass.😁

Yes I am feeling the same way too. It is going to be in the mid 80's here today.

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The predicted minimum temperature for us for Oct. 16 is 33 degrees, which is only three short of the daily record low. It will be interesting if this is a protracted cold pattern--the month should end up being very close to average if there is no warmup in three weeks.

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Oh my that is certainly a change for mid month from what it has been showing. Im so ready probably going to have a nice frost potential to kill off the mosquitoes and kick start the color change in the area in a big way! If we manage to not have much rain during the time and have cool clear nights its going to be a great one might have some nice coloring this year, but probably relatively quick.

Here is to rooting for a frost.

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We should start a topic called “complaints masquerading as observations...”

I'd contribute daily. 

Since we don’t have that, allow me to say: I’m not anxious for freezing.  I really just wanted a week or two of “crisp.”  Oh well. Nobody’s fault. Weather is weather.  The barn was about 85 humid degrees, even with the fans on. Unpleasant, but I have to get the fall work done, even without fall.

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Things started moving in the Atlantic. No more meandering upper lows or tropical or semi tropical systems. Azores high starts to settle in.  

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Things started moving in the Atlantic. No more meandering upper lows or tropical or semi tropical systems. Azores high starts to settle in.  

You are a great and good human being...

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ECMWF is trying to rain on this cold parade and make it just a 1-2 day affair.  We stay cool up here, but it's been that way all October so far, as we've not experienced the warmth. Very few sunny days.

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png.7bd8b6761d0fa7e10942c1ddd3f93388.png

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19 hours ago, RobBucksPA said:

We should start a topic called “complaints masquerading as observations...”

I'd contribute daily. 

Since we don’t have that, allow me to say: I’m not anxious for freezing.  I really just wanted a week or two of “crisp.”  Oh well. Nobody’s fault. Weather is weather.  The barn was about 85 humid degrees, even with the fans on. Unpleasant, but I have to get the fall work done, even without fall.

I've really been avoiding the barn more than I have in years - the humidity is just insane! 

I agree though, "crisp" is exactly what I've been waiting for (seemingly in vain) for so long. 

We are getting ready for an airshow next weekend at our little regional airport, so I brought the travel trailer there so I could stay this past weekend while we work on the aircraft and stuff. I had the AC BLASTING. 

When I get back to the trailer to stay there during the air show weekend, I'll probably need to use the heat! That's going to be a surreal change if it verifies (looking at a low of 45 I believe).

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GYX

Saturday - Sunday:  Consensus solution favors much cooler air
arriving across the region on Saturday with high pressure building
in from the west through the weekend.  If we see precipitation...it
would most likely take the form of mountain rain and snow showers
with some signals of H8 temperatures moving as low as -5 to -7C
behind the departing cold front.  40s and 50s for temperatures look
like a good start for expected high temperatures with the pattern
favoring widespread frost/freezing conditions Saturday night if the
scenario holds.

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

ECMWF is trying to rain on this cold parade and make it just a 1-2 day affair.  We stay cool up here, but it's been that way all October so far, as we've not experienced the warmth. Very few sunny days.

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png.7bd8b6761d0fa7e10942c1ddd3f93388.png

I am very much against this ECMWF that you speak of. 

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

ECMWF is trying to rain on this cold parade and make it just a 1-2 day affair.  We stay cool up here, but it's been that way all October so far, as we've not experienced the warmth. Very few sunny days.

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png.7bd8b6761d0fa7e10942c1ddd3f93388.png

Maybe so depends havent gotten to see if the Euro still suffers with handling energy with the SW. The tropical system out there is expected to come southern AZ and NM area and eject out in the central US this will probably enhance somewhat of a ridge in the east but probably not more then a few degrees above average type of deal before that system swings through. It leaves energy down there as many others scoop it out and giving a ridge setup again. Gotta see how it handles what comes in the SW.

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8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Maybe so depends havent gotten to see if the Euro still suffers with handling energy with the SW. The tropical system out there is expected to come southern AZ and NM area and eject out in the central US this will probably enhance somewhat of a ridge in the east but probably not more then a few degrees above average type of deal before that system swings through. It leaves energy down there as many others scoop it out and giving a ridge setup again. Gotta see how it handles what comes in the SW.

Patterns changes often take longer than modeled, or even come in "stages".  A bit if back and forth before any sustained cool weather wouldn't be surprising.

Had two frost warnings this fall come up short, so the bugs and growing season are still hanging on up here, barely.  Still haven't had to turn the heat on, so that's a plus. :classic_smile:

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28 minutes ago, Maureen said:

I am very much against this ECMWF that you speak of. 

As SWH said, it's probably a brief warm up, and then another cool down.  The pattern looks to become a bit more progressive, seesawing between warmer and cooler for a bit.  

EPS

a3ea43f5-9b58-497c-9b13-197f2007e7c5.gif.ea9964205cc2ca29bc23b99e235136e8.gif

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GFS trend. Hmm... I'll let the pictures speak for themselves. :dance2:.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.68faa1698fc800065ccc6b7842ffccf8.gif

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2 minutes ago, Solstice said:

GFS trend. Hmm... I'll let the pictures speak for themselves. :dance2:.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.68faa1698fc800065ccc6b7842ffccf8.gif

I just looked at NWS in Albany long range. They started the discussion with this.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A very changeable pattern as we transition from near summerlike
weather, tracking the tropics, to perhaps the first snowflakes of
the season.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

The flakes will be to my north, but we are slowly getting there. :brian-dancing-banana-smiley-emoticon:

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Patterns changes often take longer than modeled, or even come in "stages".  A bit if back and forth before any sustained cool weather wouldn't be surprising.

Had two frost warnings this fall come up short, so the bugs and growing season are still hanging on up here, barely.  Still haven't had to turn the heat on, so that's a plus. :classic_smile:

very true i think what might kick start it this go around may be the tropical system much more energy up north to really move things along. Yea i think it has been areas just north of you and maybe northern NY, normal cold spots, that managed to freeze/frost up. Just looking for one nice blast to come through.

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36 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

I just looked at NWS in Albany long range. They started the discussion with this.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A very changeable pattern as we transition from near summerlike
weather, tracking the tropics, to perhaps the first snowflakes of
the season.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

The flakes will be to my north, but we are slowly getting there. :brian-dancing-banana-smiley-emoticon:

That would be something if places get snow before first frost/freeze

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15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

That would be something if places get snow before first frost/freeze

Good point, I was just happy to see the word snow as we transition. :classic_laugh:

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7 hours ago, MaineJay said:

ECMWF is trying to rain on this cold parade and make it just a 1-2 day affair.  We stay cool up here, but it's been that way all October so far, as we've not experienced the warmth. Very few sunny days.

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png.7bd8b6761d0fa7e10942c1ddd3f93388.png

 

The GFS shows a similar setup for Monday:

gfs_T2ma_us_27.png

 

But then give the warmth the boot again by Tuesday:

 

gfs_T2ma_us_29.png

 

gfs_T2ma_us_33.png

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