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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Solstice

October 12-31*, 2018 | Repeated Cold Blasts | End of Growing Season

Solstice

The * indicates days of exception to the thread rule.

In this case, the days of exception are October 15, and October 20.

Message added by Solstice

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21 hours ago, MaineJay said:

ECMWF is trying to rain on this cold parade and make it just a 1-2 day affair.  We stay cool up here, but it's been that way all October so far, as we've not experienced the warmth. Very few sunny days.

 

Spoiler

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png.7bd8b6761d0fa7e10942c1ddd3f93388.png

 

Haha...meanwhile today's 12z GFS has this the next day....good ole model mayhem season is upon us...

Screen Shot 2018-10-09 at 12.49.41 PM.png

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wondering if Killington charges their snowmaking system this weekend, definitely looking pretty cold in long term...

 

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3 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Haha...meanwhile today's 12z GFS has this the next day....good ole model mayhem season is upon us...

Screen Shot 2018-10-09 at 12.49.41 PM.png

You know I almost added an obligatory,  "but watch out for what follows a warm up in winter" at the end.  :classic_laugh:

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7 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Haha...meanwhile today's 12z GFS has this the next day....good ole model mayhem season is upon us...

Screen Shot 2018-10-09 at 12.49.41 PM.png

That's what makes the cool seasons so fun!

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h5 level goes from 5880 meters to 5460 m in 3 days...that's a pretty big swing coming...

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42 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

h5 level goes from 5880 meters to 5460 m in 3 days...that's a pretty big swing coming...

If this means it will kill the unintended mushroom farm I'm currently harvesting, I'm all for it.

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14 minutes ago, Maureen said:

If this means it will kill the unintended mushroom farm I'm currently harvesting, I'm all for it.

My dad and his buddies are big time mushroom foragers...they're like giddy school kids when they go out. They've got bushels of mushrooms from this year....honey, chanterelles, boletes, black trumpets, oysters, hen of the wood, stuff I've never of...Poc would be proud. Speaking of, where is Poc? Hopefully out foraging too...

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Gfs is cold enough in its med-long range to show a decent lake response, it’s been showing up the last couple runs or so.. One would think  L Ontario is nice and toasty and primed for action ...

276CEB7A-E751-40FB-9317-98AC66930365.jpeg

14243ECA-3FEA-4132-8084-1C423D83B5AF.jpeg

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looking at models...may need to get a potential "winter storm" thread for a storm in Tuesday the 16th timeframe...yesterday's GFS had BM storm while today's was a coastal scraper. 0z Euro had an apps runner...so signs are there for something of interest early next week...nothing significant, but if it gets going, high elevations on the NW side of the storm could be looking at some accumulations

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GYX 

High pressure slides offshore on Sunday and we see a slight
increase in temperatures before the next front moves through on
Monday. The first driving wave moves to our north in Canada, so
the majority of the precipitation may fall up there. But after
the front moves through, a secondary wave moves along it to our
south Monday night. This one may generate another surface low
and more widespread precipitation for southern and central New
England. With colder air to the north of the front, it`s
possible that we see some snow especially in the mountains on
the northern end of the precipitation area.

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Latest 6-10 and 8-14 day temp predictions from the CPC both give the entire area a 50% or great chance of below normal temps. WELL DESERVED after the humid misery of the last 5 days for me. 

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Shades of 2011.... that didn't go well for us in western CT.

PJ5aqce.png

r2dWScV.png

Not opening a thread yet for this one...

Edited by StretchCT
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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Shades of 2011.... that didn't go well for us in western CT.

PJ5aqce.png

r2dWScV.png

Not opening a thread yet for this one...

Sure is, I remember being without power for days after that 2011 storm. Sleeping with a coat on. 

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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17 hours ago, bradjl2009 said:

Latest 6-10 and 8-14 day temp predictions from the CPC both give the entire area a 50% or great chance of below normal temps. WELL DESERVED after the humid misery of the last 5 days for me. 

High temps in the upper 50's and low 60's the next 4-5 days here is fine with me, finally going to feel like October should.

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3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Shades of 2011.... that didn't go well for us in western CT.

PJ5aqce.png

r2dWScV.png

Not opening a thread yet for this one...

I'm close to the bulls eye on this one.  I hope it doesn't happen because it seems like the leaves are changing late this year and I would think many trees would still have leaves on them at that point in October.  Wind gusts today did help bring down some leaves today.  I lived in NJ when the pre-Halloween snowstorm happened and we had a ton of tree damage due to the heavy wet snow with the leaves on the trees.

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35 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

High temps in the upper 50's and low 60's the next 4-5 days here is fine with me, finally going to feel like October should.

Music to my ears PlanetMaster, plus NWS in Albany bringing up the frost word for Saturday night. Be nice to get some natural bug/insect killers. :classic_smile:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Areas of frost are possible on Saturday night.
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4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Shades of 2011.... that didn't go well for us in western CT.

PJ5aqce.png

r2dWScV.png

Not opening a thread yet for this one...

The comparisons to Summer/Fall 2011 just won't end. Soggy August, then Lee, then the snow-tober "surprise". All of them are being compared to this year - and not just by weather geeks. Even "ordinary" friends I talk to, ask me about 2011 and this year. 

I tell them that no winter lover would want to hear that - it was one of the least snowiest down here, in my entire lifetime. I saw more snow while in Vegas in one visit (Mt Charleston actually) than I did here, for the entire season. 

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Well, it feels great outside here in Pittsburgh now. Falling into the low 50's and we should make it down to the low 40's by tomorrow morning. The NAM doesn't even have us getting above 50 tomorrow. What a change! 

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5 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

The comparisons to Summer/Fall 2011 just won't end. Soggy August, then Lee, then the snow-tober "surprise". All of them are being compared to this year - and not just by weather geeks. Even "ordinary" friends I talk to, ask me about 2011 and this year. 

I tell them that no winter lover would want to hear that - it was one of the least snowiest down here, in my entire lifetime. I saw more snow while in Vegas in one visit (Mt Charleston actually) than I did here, for the entire season. 

The thing I remember the most about that time period weather wise too was everyone who was predicting how snowy and cold of a winter that would be (like this one) and how we needed to stay patient and it would come.....

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On 10/9/2018 at 4:40 PM, MaineJay said:

You know I almost added an obligatory,  "but watch out for what follows a warm up in winter" at the end.  :classic_laugh:

I literally Laugh out loud😂😂😂

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Down into the low-mid 50s with a nice breeze and minimal humidity, can finally put the ac away for the year, now we wait for our 1st hard freeze..We should max out in the upper 40’s-low 50’s for the foreseeable future with lows bottoming out in the mid-upper 30s..It’s going to feel more like late October than mid October..

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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The muggy air has finally been chased away. We had been at 60 degrees or higher for five and a half days straight--every day from the 7th to the 10th had a minimum of 60 or higher. Tuesday's min of 65 was the highest for an October day since the late 1970s.  Our NWS discussion mentioned that wet snow is a possibility in the higher terrain of the Catskills!

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I'm really liking NWS in Albany forecast for the coming days.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be a drastic change from the past few days and a
stark reminder of what weather is normally like for the Autumn
season in Upstate NY and western New England. Strong cold air
advection will be in place, resulting in high temps in the mid
40s northwest to mid and upper 50s in the Hudson Valley and a
northwest breeze of 10 to 20 mph. Dewpoints will drop into the
30s as well. With the northwest flow over the eastern Great
Lakes, stratocu clouds will be around and some lake-effect rain
showers will impact parts of the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley. Any rainfall will be light.

Also the chance of frost for 3 nights as they mentioned in their HWO.

Quote

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Areas of frost are possible Saturday night and again Monday and
Tuesday nights.

Hopefully the above will bring what is below. PLEASE!!!!!!!!!

image.png.05a5b38a595e61208402ac671802458e.png

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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20 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Shades of 2011.... that didn't go well for us in western CT.

PJ5aqce.png

r2dWScV.png

Not opening a thread yet for this one...

Ugh.  No!  It's too early!

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Finally we're going to get some real Fall weather!  The past couple of weeks have been unbelievable.  Wearing shorts and t-shirt in October just isn't natural!  Sweater weather is finally here.  We're getting some strong gusts of wind in central Jersey right now.

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