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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Solstice

October 12-31*, 2018 | Repeated Cold Blasts | End of Growing Season

Solstice

The * indicates days of exception to the thread rule.

In this case, the days of exception are October 15, and October 20.

Message added by Solstice

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Currently the coldest frame I could find on the NAM 3k

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Coldest on the GFS (in this time frame)

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Now this would be a cold outbreak!

ROd1Q6F.png

 

Edited by StretchCT
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First mention of the S-word for local peaks tomorrow morning...would be great to see a frosting up there, but daylight and warm enough ground/air temps probably will mean nothing accumulates.

Edited by telejunkie
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Surprised to see rain in the forecast again so soon. Showers for tonight and Saturday and then more rain Monday through Tuesday. Cold fronts and disturbances every few days continuing to keep things cool but the wet is becoming ridiculous. Moisture will be limited so more of a nuisance.

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First day in weeks or maybe months we’ve had sustained n or nw winds not related to a tstorm.  It’s blowing pretty hard on the ridges. 

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I love watching the thermometer in the house go down lol Yesterday morning it read 79°, last night 71° and this morning 66° :classic_biggrin: Once it gets in the 50’s I think about heat..

Currenty 47° with on and off showers, dew points in the low-mid 40s..

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Currently 57 degrees here with a steady NW wind. Feels great !  Hoping to wake up the the lower 40's tomorrow morning. Finally !!!:yahoo:

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6 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

I love watching the thermometer in the house go down lol Yesterday morning it read 79°, last night 71° and this morning 66° :classic_biggrin: Once it gets in the 50’s I think about heat..

Currenty 47° with on and off showers, dew points in the low-mid 40s..

Ouch! That's rough inside, we somehow never turned on the AC from Saturday to Wednesday in my house as well and managed as the house got 77 during the day and would fall to 73 overnight. Managed to only fall to 67 last night despite temps in the 40s. Might need the heat by tomorrow with the temperature forecast coming today and tomorrow lol. What an insane change

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Not enough support to actually open a thread at this time...but definitely GFS & GEFS make the case to keep eyes on next Wednesday....energy exit near Chesapeake with an incoming trough. No connection at this time but close. Euro sort of has both pieces, but more separation, less dig of northern energy and weaker southern energy. Will still monitor for now...

 

Spoiler

Screen Shot 2018-10-12 at 12.21.51 PM.png

 

 

Spoiler

Screen Shot 2018-10-12 at 12.23.50 PM.png

 

Edited by telejunkie

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It has turned into an absolutely beautiful day. Maybe 60º, still a bit windy, but down to ~15% cloud cover. This is the kind of weather that I just have to be outside in; hence the two hours spent washing, scrubbing, and shining the ambulance. She looks mighty pretty, and I got a free excuse to be outside in some absolutely perfect conditions.

 

Man I love this time of year. Who's with me?

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2 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

It has turned into an absolutely beautiful day. Maybe 60º, still a bit windy, but down to ~15% cloud cover. This is the kind of weather that I just have to be outside in; hence the two hours spent washing, scrubbing, and shining the ambulance. She looks mighty pretty, and I got a free excuse to be outside in some absolutely perfect conditions.

 

Man I love this time of year. Who's with me?

Personally, I would rather it be warm or cold the middle of the road temperatures are more difficult to dress for. I feel really weird walking by people in shorts when it's 50F outside and I have a winter coat on. 

I'm glad you are taking full advantage of your favorite weather though!

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Just now, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Personally, I would rather it be warm or cold the middle of the road temperatures are more difficult to dress for. I feel really weird walking by people in shorts when it's 50F outside and I have a winter coat on. 

I'm glad you are taking full advantage of your favorite weather though!

For the record, I'm the guy in shorts. 

 

In all honesty though, this isn't my favorite weather; that would be a nice, solid snowstorm (like 90% of everyone else on this forum, lol). There is something ambient about this that I enjoy, however. You can feel transition in the air. Part of it is where I am working; this is a very seasonal town. The population is much larger during the summer. 

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Windy and chilly, feels like the calendar date for once. Pulled out the hoodies and sweats today for the first time. Thanks to all the huge branches that came down over the Summer I have ample firewood for the fireplace, looks like I will be lighting first logs of the season tonight. Absolutely refreshing...

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14 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Windy and chilly, feels like the calendar date for once. Pulled out the hoodies and sweats today for the first time. Thanks to all the huge branches that came down over the Summer I have ample firewood for the fireplace, looks like I will be lighting first logs of the season tonight. Absolutely refreshing...

I never imagined that a dp of 36 would nearly make me teary eyed. :classic_smile:

The windows are opened in the first time in forever and I'll be dragging out the propane patio heater (the Mrs is very anti fire) for Friday night fun and games after a round of sundown fishing.

Could I be so lucky as to actually see stars in the evening sky? I got the gear and enough beer - so here's to it! 

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1st potential for flakeage in the middle-latter part of next week...Latest GFS drops 850 mb temps down to -10 c on Thursday, pretty impressive for this time of year..

 

Quote
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.50512250000003&lon=-76.00121229999996#.W8EbyPcpCEc

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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With the cool down, it certainly feels like we are strapped in to our seats on the winter coaster and the air brakes have just released from the tracks. Wonder if this will be one of those nascar ones, where you accelerate at crazy speed and flatten out or.... The anticipation type where we chug upwards for what seems like forever until all of the sudden we go "oh S$%t" and BAM! Or even the dreaded dumbo roller coaster that never really gets goin.I tried too hard lol

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Could I be so lucky as to actually see stars in the evening sky? I got the gear and enough beer - so here's to it! 

 

5E5A1B77-2240-4A31-B2A2-ACE553632218.gif

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Wow, 46 degrees and light rain here this morning. What a difference a front can make....:classic_smile:

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36.9° this morning, coldest of the year so far, but this is at best a degree or two below normal, high should be cool however.

These freeze/frost warnings will hopefully pan out, the last two largely failed to materialize and it's about time the growing season ends.  Leaves are really beginning to drop, especially the maples, so this'll be the last weekend of real nice foliage.  This felt like a fairly abbreviated foliage season.

Screenshot_20181013-085836.jpg.239e6afc27e26f2ee8e9dc8ee9e0e53e.jpg

GYX, neat to see them using a "rule of thumb" in their disco.  Also, some flakes on the high peaks. :classic_smile:

Quote

A short wave trough clearly evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ohio Valley will move quickly eastward today. This will
allow for a cloudy day with light rain or showers...mainly
across central and southern zones. The steadiest precipitation
is expected mid morning through midday. Thereafter, the showers
should become a lot more widely scattered and even end as the
short wave trough quickly moves offshore. Temperatures will be
chilly today with evaporational cooling taking place. There will
likely even be a few snowflakes across the highest elevations of
the Whites.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Cold high pressure builds in tonight with many areas seeing a
frost or freeze. Have hoisted the appropriate frost/freeze
headline based on our expected low temperatures.

High pressure crests just to the south of New England on Sunday
providing for a sunny day with highs well into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A return southwest flow develops Sun night into Mon ahead of a
clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes. Showers will
develop ahead of this system Monday and into the early evening
then ending shortly after the FROPA. Qpf amounts should be
minimal. A trailing cold front will allow winds to shift to the
northwest allowing downsloping northwest winds to develop Mon
night. A cooler and drier ams will be in place for Tue as the
center of high pres becomes centered south of New England. A few
rain or snow showers expected Wed in the mountains as another
clipper system with associated cold front drops southeast. As a
broad upper long wave trof becomes established late in the week,
this will allow colder temps and scattered snow showers in the
orographically favored areas.

Of interest is the high amplitude upper long wave ridge axis
position becoming well established at 130W early in the week
with large 12-24 height rises. Rule of thumb is 72 hours later a
large long wave upper trof generally develops in the northeast.
The models in the outlook period rubberstamp this with several
clipper systems creating the broad upper trof in the east.

For temps, stayed very close to NBM guidance.
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Nice.

MT WASHINGTON  SNOWSHWR  21  21 100 W39         N/A  VSB 1/16WCI   1$$
	

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Raw and uncomfortable day so far, sitting at 43° with moderate lake effect showers, about 1/4” LE in the bucket..

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Well, it's cold and raw, just like I expected. Lynnie is not happy. 

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5 minutes ago, lynniethelurker said:

Well, it's cold and raw, just like I expected. Lynnie is not happy. 

Sun is breaking out back here. Should start to overtake the entire E part of the Commonwealth 

vis.thumb.PNG.bec1ec66e9a7f11dfd999df01785dac5.PNG

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The thirties are back! This morning we had our first low in the 30s since early May. It was our chilliest low since April 30. It was almost cold enough for snow--but not quite.  Even now, it is still a mere 42 degrees. However, 30 years ago today the low was 30 degrees and the high was a mere 38.  I believe that was the last time we had a sub-40 max this early in the fall. I've noticed that we often go from record high minimums to record low maximums (or close to it) on many occasions. That was a prevalent phenomenon in 1970, the first year I followed weather. I hope we can get to 32 or lower tomorrow morning, so we can finally give our mosquitoes their walking papers.

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