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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

UTSwiinii

October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

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OK - I believe I've seen enough now and it's time to start a post to discuss. This is something I alluded to a couple days ago, in the LR Fall thread (I think)

Start with some OFM - namely, the Bering Sea Rule which shows this. 

Capture.PNG.4132b1807926a5b165c21bfb2a63e82a.PNG

Source

Last couple GFS runs (which, besides the CFS are the only models currently in range and also readily available to the public) have shown some very close resemblance. None more "alarming" than the 10/15 00z GFS-FV3 version of the potential. Here's a still of surface.

fv3p_mslp_wind_us_62.png.8eb457e7949b36c4f2ef8e38c1bf2deb.png

GIF of H5

 

fv3p_z500_vort_us_fh324-384.gif.a5fbabcc098180be0cafb327a6bdcfb9.gif

I don't imagine I would have to make the obvious reference to what this (verbatim) run reminds me of. 

Joe put out a blog post yesterday

Blog source

renken.thumb.PNG.e31e9c29abb466de0d3476356d01d290.PNG

IMG2.PNG.c2afe74aa7d9c4fce59e3f4fd946acb4.PNG

Let's see where this takes us. We have the ingredients for a major EC storm - it is NOT, as portrayed ATTM, a particularly cold storm but then again, we're not exactly honed into the exact details. I imagine that someone in the elevated interior could end up, at some point, with some white stuff - less likely along the coastal plains (though not entirely out of the question either) so, for now, (edit )- NOT an exact replica of Oct 2011 storm. Yet, that probably remains to be worked out as we draw closer. 

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Figured you'd put a thread out. Good early season test for the BSR, we'll see how the correlation is doing these days. 

 

TEST: BSR 

 

So...why does "BSR" underline automatically? 

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On 10/15/2018 at 5:50 AM, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

Figured you'd put a thread out. Good early season test for the BSR, we'll see how the correlation is doing these days. 

 

TEST: BSR 

 

So...why does "BSR" underline automatically? 

If you'd like, cranky has two different correlation pages dedicated to verification. They are the only ones that depict the correct way for pattern recognition of what the BSR shows. You can see this year's below...

 

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018_Verify.php

 

As for the underline of BSR...it's in the forum glossary for people to know what we are talking about.

 

Lastly, as the blog post showed, the other methods to organicforecasting also showed the potential for a late October Nor'easter.

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As a round about way of looking at the EPS out to day15, one can look at the plots from weather.us.

One can see a little upturn at the end of the run. Tis the season.  Unfortunately to for me, this is about the time I'll be starting a large outdoor project that'll easily stretch into winter, and beyond...

Screenshot_20181015-075614.thumb.jpg.aa748640bf364fb69ba75565216986bd.jpg

https://weather.us/forecast/4960358-casco/ensemble/euro/snow

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Well, yea...too early? Never too I suppose 👍

 

image.png

Edited by shaulov4
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@UTSwiinii, great thread. I had been looking into this possible potential and was waiting to get some minimal ECMWF support. As of this morning, I think that this threat does hold potential.

The way I see it as of now, is that we may actually have the possible involvement of the northern jet stream branch carrying a piece of the energy while there seems to be another piece of energy, maybe the main one, tracking over coast ofnthe GOMEX states or right over the offshores waters of the Gulf coast states, attempting to develop some tropical entity. So, there's the chance that this southern energy is the main one and is tropical in nature.

With that in mind, as long as there is the possibility of a two stream interaction, especially with a possible tropical entity energy, the phasing possibility becomes a threat, concern, possibility. 

An east coast storm, Nor'easter, post tropical cyclone hibryd, whatever the case may be when the storm materializes, arising from phasing and also going through the transition from tropical warm core dynamics to post tropical baroclicnic forcing energy dynamics, could indeed, in case everythingwent accordingly, give raise to what is shown on the Oct 15th 2018 00Z FV3 GFS,  which was well illistrated by you.

NOTE: Trofs digging towards the South central US and SE CONUS bring vort energy wih them while the northern GOMEX experiences troubled waters, usually can result in "entertaining" vigorous weather for the eastern third of the CONUS.

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19 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

 

"entertaining" vigorous weather for the eastern third of the CONUS.

 
12

I just wanted to emphasize that 😂

Edited by shaulov4
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45 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

@UTSwiinii

...

An east coast storm, Nor'easter, post tropical cyclone hibryd, whatever the case may be when the storm materializes, arising from phasing and also going through the transition from tropical warm core dynamics to post tropical baroclicnic forcing energy dynamics, could indeed, in case everythingwent accordingly, give raise to what is shown on the Oct 15th 2018 00Z FV3 GFS,  which was well illistrated by you.

...

I just wanted to emphasize that 😂

That sentence is longer than the thread time lentgh.

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LOL GFS....

 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_51.png

 

In all seriousness, there is a pretty good signal for something, both conventional "model signaling" and Organic Forecasting Methods as laid out by JD in his (quite excellent) blog post.

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06Z FV3GFS, lost the connection between the northern branch energy and the tropical entity energy tracking just offshore off the coast of the northern GOMEX. With that, the northern stream deepend by itself and looks to cut through the Ohio valley.

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6z GFS shows a 949mb monster just off cape cod on 10/30.

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NCEP based mjo forecasts both operational gfs and bias corrected gfs have an active signal looping back around into phase 1 during this period as seen below.  

 

IMG_4581.GIF.8ef5fd860356f143b2ab827bd8b4ede9.GIF

 

IMG_4582.GIF.aaf478cbe76d547c69ccf900be6c1990.GIF

 

Phase 1 mjo composite for October in the Current ENSO neutral conditions show a propensity for large eastern US troughing with height rises in both the western US (+PNA signal) and the in North Atlantic invof Nova Scotia (downstream blocking)

IMG_4565.thumb.PNG.a0b49cb2e62f23015d4c872321a4fcc5.PNG

Ths pattern would certainly lead to a cold period coming towards the end of the month.

There has been ample tropical moisture available and some of the Long range operational models have been teasing with a link up. 

The BSR as covered above has depicted a stalled boundary from around the 25th of October right into November which correlates to a baroclinic leaf along the east coast.  

We should see chances of waves of low pressure riding up the coast in this time frame (25th-?)

Currently the Global Wind Oscillation or Angular momentum is forecasted to remain in a negative state which would decrease the likliehood of an extension of our nothern jet.  

What can we conclude? 

Both organic teleconnections, (bsr, ear, and soi) show a signal for east coast trouging and waves of low pressure. 

The MJO looks like it may remain active and after looping back into the cod will again propagate into phase 8 briefly before moving easterly into phase 1.  

So there looks to be a significant period of below normal temperatures along with a continued pattern of available tropical moisture. 

Its not out of the realm of possibility that one of the waves of low pressure can interact with our nothern branch but it will require some help.

The transitional state of the pna and nao and western and eastern pacific teles are usually a good indicator of disruptive weather for the US.  In our case the eastern half of the country.

IMG_4584.thumb.GIF.42fcb19bcbd9c751e3beb1dfafa8ef2a.GIF 

 

IMG_4585.thumb.PNG.d81797d8f0d72f795db1ebc14b49fcfa.PNG

 

IMG_4583.thumb.PNG.486cb14b0cb5ad19700f008a15cc6acf.PNG

We can also see that high latitude blocking is being forecasted For the last week of October ontop of the transitional NAO.  It is this type of help That could assist one of the disturbances riding the forecasted boundary to affect our sensible weather.

For now we will see a myriad of solutions spit out on the operational models.  Ensembles are showing the coastal low pressure reflections, not a surprise given the current base state of our correlative teleconnections.  There is definitely enough reason to keep an eye on this period.

Do enjoy the early season tracking! Cheers.

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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14 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

NCEP based mjo forecasts both operational gfs and bias corrected gfs have an active signal looping back around into phase 1 during this period as seen below.  

 

IMG_4581.GIF.8ef5fd860356f143b2ab827bd8b4ede9.GIF

 

IMG_4582.GIF.aaf478cbe76d547c69ccf900be6c1990.GIF

 

Phase 1 mjo composite for October in the Current ENSO neutral conditions show a propensity for large eastern US troughing with height rises (downstream blocking) in both the western US (+PNA signal) and the in North Atlantic invof Nova Scotia 

IMG_4565.thumb.PNG.a0b49cb2e62f23015d4c872321a4fcc5.PNG

Ths pattern would certainly lead to a cold period coming towards the end of the month.

There has been ample tropical moisture available and some of the Long range operational models have been teasing with a link up. 

The BSR as covered above has depicted a stalled boundary from around the 25th of October right into November which correlates to a baroclinic leaf along the east coast.  

We should see chances of waves of low pressure riding up the coast in this time frame (25th-?)

Currently the Global Wind Oscillation or Angular momentum is forecasted to remain in a negative state which would decrease the likliehood of an extension of our nothern jet.  

What can we conclude? 

Both organic teleconnections, (bsr, ear, and soi) show a signal for east coast trouging and waves of low pressure. 

The MJO looks like it may remain active and after looping back into the cod will again propagate into phase 8 briefly before moving easterly into phase 1.  

So there looks to be a significant period of below normal temperatures al Nhc with a continued pattern of available tropical moisture. 

Its not out of the realm of possibility that one of the waves of low pressure can interact with our nothern branch but it will require some help.

The transitional state of the pna and nao and western and eastern pacific teles are usually a good indicator of disruptive weather.

 

 

IMG_4584.thumb.GIF.42fcb19bcbd9c751e3beb1dfafa8ef2a.GIF 

 

 

IMG_4585.thumb.PNG.d81797d8f0d72f795db1ebc14b49fcfa.PNG

 

 

IMG_4583.thumb.PNG.486cb14b0cb5ad19700f008a15cc6acf.PNG

We can also see that high latitude blocking is being forecasted For the last week of October ontop of the transitional NAO.  It is this type of help That could assist one of the disturbances riding the forecasted boundary to affect our sensible weather.

For now we will see a myriad of solutions on the operationals given the current base state of our correlative teleconnections.

Enjoy the early season tracking. 

 

Thanks for posting @Poconosnow. Your post illustrates the thoughts some of us have and further gives support to the reasoning for this thread.

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Jeez, even a signal on GEFS...that impressive this far out

AD52257C-EE44-4770-9845-09C2EAEBBB66.png

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12z GFS continues to "flirt" with the notion

gfs_z500_vort_us_47.png.176f3b58c3c1337d3555d2b4806a0dad.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png.7dc864fb0aecee35c3cbc967c7e8797f.png

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6 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

12z GFS continues to "flirt" with the notion

 

 

This run is quite cool.

And it's not the FV3GFS.

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Hope the long range GFS verification increases a little more this year. While I understand the long range (10 day +) is fantasy land for the most part on any model, last year the GFS was always showing something juicy that seemed to rarely came to fruition. Wasn't fond of the extra "tease" factor is was giving off in winter 17/18.

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35 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

12z GFS continues to "flirt" with the notion

gfs_z500_vort_us_47.png.176f3b58c3c1337d3555d2b4806a0dad.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png.7dc864fb0aecee35c3cbc967c7e8797f.png

Can I use "Fujiwhara effect" in this setting? :classic_cool:

Edited by telejunkie

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GEFS and GEPS suggest a tropical/subtropical entity emerging from the western Caribbean will be an important southern-stream player in this time period. Who knows where it will ultimately track, but knowing the tropical/sub-tropical origin is important information. Given the recent rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic, it seems like more heavy rainfall is probably the most widespread threat. However, fairly widespread Canadian snow cover suggests a cold air source that could support a wintry component as well. Fun times.

00z GEPS h252 MSLP.png

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39 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Can I use "Fujiwhara effect" in this setting? :classic_cool:

More like "absorbed" and "bowling ball". :rapper-smiley-emoticon::very-shocked-smiley-emoticon::gigity:

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Two Words.

Too Soon!

Things still green around here!

DpkfE11UYAEGhio.jpg

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Too soon for what exactly?

Large storms with extratropical transitions or tropical hybrids can occur in this exact intraseasonal period.

A "Nor'easter" doesn't need to drop even an inch of snow, or any at all.  

Theres a very good chance that a large strong storm even without a strong or full vertical phase can deliver some flakes to the highlands or northeastern interior.  

Apologies if I read or interpreted your post wrong.   But it's not too soon to track any storm.  

There are zero posts in this thread that exhibit anything far fetched. 

By learning and using the OFM and other teleconnections and how to use them properly.... the two words "too soon" are becoming "too old".  

Pattern first, details later.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Too soon for what exactly?

Large storms with extratropical transitions or tropical hybrids can occur in this exact intraseasonal period.

A "Nor'easter" doesn't need to drop even an inch of snow, or any at all.  

Theres a very good chance that a large strong storm even without a strong or full vertical phase can deliver some flakes to the highlands or northeastern interior.  

Apologies if I read or interpreted your post wrong.   But it's not too soon to track any storm.  

There are zero posts in this thread that exhibit anything far fetched. 

By learning and using the OFM and other teleconnections and how to use them properly.... the two words "too soon" are becoming "too old".  

Pattern first, details later.

 

 

I won't speak for Nor, but I read it as "too soon for snow" - as in "too soon for those flakes to hit the canopy that still exists" (a major damage factor back in the 2011 event).  So, I read - "I would not like it to snow just now, it's too soon to not have serious damage if so".

Now, for sure, no one introduced the words of snow (b/c this threat does not, at present SEEM TO BE the 2011 redux) outside the interior and at elevation (even there is was grudgingly conceded that some might see flakes - but no mention that anything would accumulate). 

Rather - this is mainly a big, perhaps major (geez, some runs have near or at Cane type deepening), Nor'easter potential - minus widespread snow of course. Two very developed branches of the jet delivering Upper level and surface support to something many would like to see in the coming colder times. But even in saying that, we just have to see what may come of it IF the two phase into one another and create a monster - then we can start to discuss details of precip types. 

Pattern first for sure - but then (in another couple days and IF there is still support) we can go into strength (first for me), track (usually second b/c it's related to strength) and then to the "last minute" details such as temps at the surface (usually the last thing I look at ). 

Could we see snow? So much depends on how deep whatever happens can go and which of the two branches dominates and, if the northern stream, where is the center (is it pulling ANY cold at all, or will this potential have to manufacture (draw down) its own). 

Regardless, should be a great primer for the upcoming cold season. 

 

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