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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

UTSwiinii

October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

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2 hours ago, PA Snow 84 said:

Hope the long range GFS verification increases a little more this year. While I understand the long range (10 day +) is fantasy land for the most part on any model, last year the GFS was always showing something juicy that seemed to rarely came to fruition. Wasn't fond of the extra "tease" factor is was giving off in winter 17/18.

The approach "we" take to the LR (insert model of choice here) is that IF it has OFM support THEN we have increased confidence in the solution. FV3GFS is "supposed" to take care of some earlier deficiency, but I'm not sold on it doing so, just yet. 

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2 hours ago, jdrenken said:

It's, it's it's ----- SORCERY! Sorcery, I say!! Get the stakes and torches out - there's a warlock among us. :classic_wink:

 

Edit (inside humor) I'll have to call up Dr. Jon Nese and ask him what he thinks. (LOL) 

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20 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

I won't speak for Nor, but I read it as "too soon for snow" - as in "too soon for those flakes to hit the canopy that still exists" (a major damage factor back in the 2011 event).  So, I read - "I would not like it to snow just now, it's too soon to not have serious damage if so".

Now, for sure, no one introduced the words of snow (b/c this threat does not, at present SEEM TO BE the 2011 redux) outside the interior and at elevation (even there is was grudgingly conceded that some might see flakes - but no mention that anything would accumulate). 

Rather - this is mainly a big, perhaps major (geez, some runs have near or at Cane type deepening), Nor'easter potential - minus widespread snow of course. Two very developed branches of the jet delivering Upper level and surface support to something many would like to see in the coming colder times. But even in saying that, we just have to see what may come of it IF the two phase into one another and create a monster - then we can start to discuss details of precip types. 

Pattern first for sure - but then (in another couple days and IF there is still support) we can go into strength (first for me), track (usually second b/c it's related to strength) and then to the "last minute" details such as temps at the surface (usually the last thing I look at ). 

Could we see snow? So much depends on how deep whatever happens can go and which of the two branches dominates and, if the northern stream, where is the center (is it pulling ANY cold at all, or will this potential have to manufacture (draw down) its own). 

Regardless, should be a great primer for the upcoming cold season. 

 

 

Ah yes, I would agree that with the canopy in tact any winds excarbated with rain or snow would have an amplified effect on possible damage. 

I am conditioned, perhaps more so from the old board, to see the words "too soon" and think that it means we can't presume to understand what the weather will bring us in the 14-21day range.  As many know using all the tools at our disposal the words too soon when applied to lead time are quickly becoming old hat. 

There are many instances in the past years where a Pattern or even a storm was detailed on such long lead times.  Not the specifics per se, but the notion.

carry on :)

Edited by Poconosnow

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SOI and SOID.

Spoiler

258664881_chart(12).thumb.png.4ea1f8686e2ffc81cc959bbb598796ef.png

 

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21 minutes ago, Solstice said:

SOI and SOID.

  Hide contents

258664881_chart(12).thumb.png.4ea1f8686e2ffc81cc959bbb598796ef.png

 

I've addressed the flawed logic of utilizing this chart. It did well at first, then the reality of how different the 500mb was for various seasons, ENSO, & severity of the change came to play.

 

For instance, some on the internet claim a jump in the daily SOI translates to a heat ridge no matter the variables I stated above.

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48 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

It's, it's it's ----- SORCERY! Sorcery, I say!! Get the stakes and torches out - there's a warlock among us. :classic_wink:

 

Edit (inside humor) I'll have to call up Dr. Jon Nese and ask him what he thinks. (LOL) 

Will they take your call after last time? ;) :classic_biggrin:

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5 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

I've addressed the flawed logic of utilizing this chart. It did well at first, then the reality of how different the 500mb was for various seasons, ENSO, & severity of the change came to play.

 

For instance, some on the internet claim a jump in the daily SOI translates to a heat ridge no matter the variables I stated above.

So, then is it useful in the same way as we view and consider the teleconnections (looking more at movement then we do the actual values)? 

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8 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

So, then is it useful in the same way as we view and consider the teleconnections (looking more at movement then we do the actual values)? 

It's not useful at all anymore per the variables involved. Look at the correlation dates, according to the chart there should be transitioning to a ridge during this period.

 

Plus...WTH is "2nd derivative"? That's never been in Dr. Lupo & my research.

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17 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

I've addressed the flawed logic of utilizing this chart. It did well at first, then the reality of how different the 500mb was for various seasons, ENSO, & severity of the change came to play.

 

For instance, some on the internet claim a jump in the daily SOI translates to a heat ridge no matter the variables I stated above.

 

Yup - noticed that there were several storms on changes, the deltas themselves don't seem to be that effective. I've been playing around with it to see if it's useful for anything, hence the additional line.

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I interpreted Nor's post differently.  Its too soon to want snow where the leaves are green, not that its impossible.   We've had snow in Fairfield County as early as the 9th and 10th of October, flurries/snow showers at the most.  But you really don't want to have a heavier snow until the leaves are ready to fall or have fallen.  While I am a fan of snow, I am not a fan of what the CMC put forth today.  A few weeks later then I'll route for it.  Edit: would help to have read past Pocs post....... sorry for the duplicative effort

gem_asnow24_neus_36.thumb.png.2f38afb6711edeffe7675e9c3f3a7472.png

 

Edited by StretchCT
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Couple of jazzed up MREF members from 12z - certainly they have cold 850's with them as well, not so much lower level cold. Ramped up Nor'easter look regardless

Ewall MREF Surface Plots

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Just now, StretchCT said:

I interpreted Nor's post differently.  Its too soon to want snow where the leaves are green, not that its impossible.   We've had snow in Fairfield County as early as the 9th and 10th of October, flurries/snow showers at the most.  But you really don't want to have a heavier snow until the leaves are ready to fall or have fallen.  While I am a fan of snow, I am not a fan of what the CMC put forth today.  A few weeks later then I'll route for it.

gem_asnow24_neus_36.thumb.png.2f38afb6711edeffe7675e9c3f3a7472.png

 

LOL - and that's not even from this time period. But it does pull off a very similar thing, just a couple days earlier. Good ol' Drunk-le GG. Not bad for TCs but still stinking up most other storms, one run at a time. 

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1 hour ago, Poconosnow said:

Too soon for what exactly?

 

1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

I won't speak for Nor, but I read it as "too soon for snow" - as in "too soon for those flakes to hit the canopy that still exists" (a major damage factor back in the 2011 event).  So, I read - "I would not like it to snow just now, it's too soon to not have serious damage if so".

 

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

I interpreted Nor's post differently.  Its too soon to want snow where the leaves are green, not that its impossible.   We've had snow in Fairfield County as early as the 9th and 10th of October, flurries/snow showers at the most.  But you really don't want to have a heavier snow until the leaves are ready to fall or have fallen.

 

By "too soon," he 100% meant in respect to the damage a snowstorm would cause.

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41 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

I've addressed the flawed logic of utilizing this chart. It did well at first, then the reality of how different the 500mb was for various seasons, ENSO, & severity of the change came to play.

 

For instance, some on the internet claim a jump in the daily SOI translates to a heat ridge no matter the variables I stated above.

I've used a soi theory I guess I observed or may have even read somewhere that basically states a large 20pt+ 3d drop teleconnects with lag to an eastern US trough while a 20pt+ 3d rise translates to a Central US ridge which moderates as it moves east 

super scientific right 😂 

Again, SOI is one of those things that is greatly connected to equatorial ssts and PAC typhoons.  Very volatile in nature. The usefulness of such has probably only seen the surface scratched.  Look forward to any actual scientifically proven correlations and what not.  It's all related right. :)

Edited by Poconosnow

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Wooooo that look at 500mb is rather worrisome and with the cold front hanging around down south just before this haha not good to say the least. Man keep an eye on this period would hate to see a ULL capture a tropical system  in the east...

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Extrapolated European is interesting if we use Henry's rule of "enters on West coast, exit off East coast."

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_fh192-240.gif

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh192-240.gif

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30 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

Extrapolated European is interesting if we use Henry's rule of "enters on West coast, exit off East coast."

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_fh192-240.gif

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh192-240.gif

The one Henry rule that holds some water :)

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On a secondary note, here was my week 5/6 from September 28th and week 3/4 from October 5th.

received_168529814083416.jpeg

received_310359183125779.jpeg

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18z GEFS still liking this time period...:sorcerer:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_59.png

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I thought about starting a new thread for the period before this time frame, but there's quite a bit of timing discrepancy with numerous shortwaves mining through the flow, and it could begin to encroach on this thread. Unless someone else wants to start one, I'm gong to wait another couple model cycles and hope the is some convergence. But, I wanted to post the GYX disco, because I believe the messages fits here, even though I'm not sure the time frame exactly matches.  Just want to give this thread enough "berth".

GYX

Beyond the end of the work week the extended looks to remain a
series of quick moving S/WV trofs and reinforcing cold shots.
Mean trofing over the Ern CONUS will support temps at or below
normal thru the period and thru next week. Notably...with
plenty of colder than normal air in place and the positive PNA
pattern supporting Nrn stream S/WVs potentially interacting with
the subtropics...the pattern is ripe for East Coast
cyclogenesis. Perhaps significant cyclogenesis. And if we are
going to dig a little deeper...ECMWF EPS individual members are
supporting low pressure late next week...and roughly 1 in 5
members has the first snowfall of the season for locations in
Nrn New England. Food for thought.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

I thought about starting a new thread for the period before this time frame, but there's quite a bit of timing discrepancy with numerous shortwaves mining through the flow, and it could begin to encroach on this thread. Unless someone else wants to start one, I'm gong to wait another couple model cycles and hope the is some convergence. But, I wanted to post the GYX disco, because I believe the messages fits here, even though I'm not sure the time frame exactly matches.  Just want to give this thread enough "berth".

GYX

 

 

Good form MJ - lessens potential confusion. 

Meanwhile, 6z GFS Op run suggests a potent "GU" storm (Gorilla from the Gulf linked with Unicorn 50/50 low) set up

 

gfs_z500_vort_atl_45.thumb.png.d139e2c230f871ade968b2b660a9bca7.png

 

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Wow - that was a "fun" run. Merged system retrogrades from the EC to the GL's and drops the 540 level to N NC. 

Such amusement these Op runs are. 

 

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@UTSwiinii @jdrenken (and others) - What I like about Organic Forecasting is that for me, it gives me another avenue of long-range signaling. Like...it used to be "oh the GFS is somewhat consistently showing something in fifteen days...yay?" whereas now, we can say that yes, the GFS has a signal at the 2 week range (or whatever); is this signal backed up by LR OFM signals? Then we can look at the BSR, the EAR, the RRWT, and all those other acronyms, and say "yes, we have OFM support", that is, secondary "confirmation" (in quotes because nothing is solid at long range; they are still signals, not 1:1 gospel), as opposed to just the GFS (and other LR models) in a vacuum.

 

For me, it's nice to be able to cross-reference signals, if that makes sense.

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Given what the latest 00Z ECMWF and FV3 GFS showed, although we'd need more runs to make a better assessement, we may run the risk of the southern branch energy which is tropical or subtropical in nature, become a completely stand alone system as it could become a developing tropical cyclone over the northern GOMEX waters, especially on the ECMWF depiction.

Then on the FV3 GFS, there is a low pressure wave riding NE'ward along a cold front event on the 26 and 27th of October and them the event for this thread unfolds quite dramatically on the 29th through the 31st, without any southern stream energy. It develops quite beautifully by itself.

So, in the coming days, we will need to see about all these mixed events and eventually separate what does not belong in this thread.

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44 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

@UTSwiinii @jdrenken (and others) - What I like about Organic Forecasting is that for me, it gives me another avenue of long-range signaling. Like...it used to be "oh the GFS is somewhat consistently showing something in fifteen days...yay?" whereas now, we can say that yes, the GFS has a signal at the 2 week range (or whatever); is this signal backed up by LR OFM signals? Then we can look at the BSR, the EAR, the RRWT, and all those other acronyms, and say "yes, we have OFM support", that is, secondary "confirmation" (in quotes because nothing is solid at long range; they are still signals, not 1:1 gospel), as opposed to just the GFS (and other LR models) in a vacuum.

 

For me, it's nice to be able to cross-reference signals, if that makes sense.

It would seem there is support for such a storm...

18_1029-00.gif.3be75325882ea872aeaa32b5e907a494.gif

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