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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

UTSwiinii

October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

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5 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

It would seem there is support for such a storm...

18_1029-00.gif.3be75325882ea872aeaa32b5e907a494.gif

And actually, someone correct me if I am not seeing this correctly here, but it looks as though there is a bit of support for the 06z run of the GFS this morning...

output_2nZG9S.gif.82bdbca1047b3feb90e78cd2dcb4cc34.gif

By absolutely no means am I saying that will happen, just appears there is some support for a retrograding low towards the end of the month.

Edited by weather_boy2010
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1 minute ago, jdrenken said:

Where are the speedo's? :very-shocked-smiley-emoticon:

:gigity:

:classic_laugh:

Edited by Poconosnow
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Did the CMC not run last night? 00z for Tuesday is missing on Pivotal and Tidbits.

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Why not the experimental FIM too

Its purpose is to handle these type of anomalous storm scenarios

well it goes bonkers.... it closes off an ull over the east coast for day and a half :classic_blink:

IMG_4623.thumb.PNG.42a2b1ca6c3ce5266905579348712ece.PNG

IMG_4624.thumb.PNG.9bff951d3886567cc5437a3a81e02981.PNG

IMG_4622.thumb.PNG.b0c84d201ced7af9cfefb37e23261ed0.PNG

IMG_4625.thumb.PNG.8a1854ca1d527605fe1ed83edf17d551.PNG

IMG_4618.thumb.PNG.7722e1c22cfd4b1f1c7d23c5385b345b.PNG

IMG_4619.thumb.PNG.a20706dc26f3c213ff665cbfff1bdcb5.PNG

IMG_4620.thumb.PNG.c5bd0c6116f9e4184922723fa021ec01.PNGIMG_4621.thumb.PNG.72f233a3f10ca187687ec63c37cd5111.PNG

IMG_4626.PNG

 

thats hr288-336.... it doesn't run any further.  So ya um

 

*sorry for not making a .gif, it woulda looked pretty cool

Edited by Poconosnow

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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I thought about starting a new thread for the period before this time frame, but there's quite a bit of timing discrepancy with numerous shortwaves mining through the flow, and it could begin to encroach on this thread. Unless someone else wants to start one, I'm gong to wait another couple model cycles and hope the is some convergence. But, I wanted to post the GYX disco, because I believe the messages fits here, even though I'm not sure the time frame exactly matches.  Just want to give this thread enough "berth".

GYX

 

 

Noticed that 0z Euro and 6z GFS have Miller B looking storm in that earlier time frame. Euro has it closing off and meandering SE... :352nmsp:

Definitely something to keep an eye on but agree, not ready to pull trigger on it yet as I'm not seeing much Ensemble support in this timeframe...looked like Canadian ensembles were closest though.

But back to the 30th....

index.jpg

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3 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Noticed that 0z Euro and 6z GFS have Miller B looking storm in that earlier time frame. Euro has it closing off and meandering SE... :352nmsp:

Definitely something to keep an eye on but agree, not ready to pull trigger on it yet as I'm not seeing much Ensemble support in this timeframe...looked like Canadian ensembles were closest though.

But back to the 30th....

index.jpg

Multiple GEFS runs have supported it.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_51.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_52.png

EPS also has a hint...

 

NYC

https://weather.us/forecast/5128581-new-york/ensemble/euro/precipitation

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9 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

Multiple GEFS runs have supported it.

 

Sorry...didn't explain myself fully, was talking about the first potential developing s/w around the 25th. Impressive support on ensembles for the 30th timeframe given how far out this still is...

Edited by telejunkie

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20 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Noticed that 0z Euro and 6z GFS have Miller B looking storm in that earlier time frame. Euro has it closing off and meandering SE... :352nmsp:

Definitely something to keep an eye on but agree, not ready to pull trigger on it yet as I'm not seeing much Ensemble support in this timeframe...looked like Canadian ensembles were closest though.

But back to the 30th....

index.jpg

06z gfs clustering still not honed much

 

 

IMG_4630.PNG

IMG_4631.PNG

IMG_4632.PNG

IMG_4633.PNG

 

Edit: I see you mean on the 25th 

 

here is clustering for that 

 

IMG_4634.PNG.1ffe640f12c5a5df835efa1ed1a3ff8d.PNG

ensembke sensitivity still very high for the whole period it seems 

large envelope for sure 

Edited by Poconosnow

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5 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Sorry...didn't explain myself fully, was talking about the first potential developing s/w around the 25th. Impressive support on ensembles for the 30th timeframe given how far out this still is...

The "setup" will prove interesting for sure!

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@jdrenken Do we know the general period for this season's LRC yet, or have there not been enough events to assume that so far?

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The 6z GFS was funny for me because I’ve been wanting something similar to the 1950 storm to happen and the 6z GFS tries its hardest to do it lol.

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1 hour ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

@jdrenken Do we know the general period for this season's LRC yet, or have there not been enough events to assume that so far?

It is to my knowledge that during this intraseasonal period that Gary Lezak determines his cycle length. 

His method, the LRC, or lezak recurring cycle, has been peer reviewed in this journal.

https://www.omicsonline.org/peer-reviewed/cycling-weather-patterns-in-the-northern-hemisphere-70years-of-research-and-a-new-hypothesisp-98597.html

It specifically focuses on the potential cyclicality of extreme precipitation events in the Lake Tahoe, NV (USA) area during the drought ending 2016-2017 season over the western United States.

It's a good read and imho one piece of the larger puzzle that is the recurring rossby wave trains we see in our atmosphere.  

Our own Joe Renken also has a journal published examining the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) and the East Asia Rule (EAR) for making forecasts, especially skillful when dealing with anomalous weather, in the two-to-four-week time frame for the US using signaling from the persistent rossby wave train in the pacific teleconnected region.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/

I hope I did not butcher either hypothesis or theory too badly.  It's best just to read them :)

Edited by Poconosnow
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1 hour ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

@jdrenken Do we know the general period for this season's LRC yet, or have there not been enough events to assume that so far?

To my knowledge, Gary hasn't released his cycle length. The others in the paper with Gary, also haven't released their cycle lengths. I'm sure that this could be his "signature storm".

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gfs_z500_vort_us_fh216-324.gif.0c77876567a1c9f3c4b2d21e01ca79b2.gif

12z GFS has a piece of the Pacific system move across the Northern Gulf and just missed the phase.

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End of 12z Euro FWIW. Looks like something trying to take shape in the GOM. 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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Euro has an interesting look via the 4panel view. No "help" from the PNA region but that downstream block looks serious (and has a 50/50 low on the left anchor position) and we see a shortwave along the Gulf Coast, waiting to "play" until the bundles from the Pac get onto the scene

f240.thumb.gif.43839fcd6fc1207da5d6a162e456442a.gif

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25 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Euro has an interesting look via the 4panel view. No "help" from the PNA region but that downstream block looks serious (and has a 50/50 low on the left anchor position) and we see a shortwave along the Gulf Coast, waiting to "play" until the bundles from the Pac get onto the scene

f240.thumb.gif.43839fcd6fc1207da5d6a162e456442a.gif

If this were the setup in December-February, this place would be going insane. What I'm more interested in is if this comes together, does the storm pull and lock in cold air for the east? 

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13 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

If this were the setup in December-February, this place would be going insane. What I'm more interested in is if this comes together, does the storm pull and lock in cold air for the east? 

CPC blocking (uses 00z GFS IIRC) seems to think so. I've snipped the dates of this thread for illustration. One can "see" the reflection of whatever EC storm there is - with rising heights out east of there  which, eventually would gum up the shootin' match. 

(note too, the "unicorn" 50/50 reflects quite well in this particular depiction)

1791417128_CPCblocking.PNG.6ddd962e3f56dd51eaacaba42fb71a2c.PNG

Point being, the N Atl block, as projected, might even set up as a full blown Rex - note the increasing strength at the end of the run. (30th). 

A whole lot more people would complain "summer directly to winter" - that is, if we'd not been cheated out of Summer to begin with (here in the East) :classic_biggrin:

 

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3 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

It is to my knowledge that during this intraseasonal period that Gary Lezak determines his cycle length. 

His method, the LRC, or lezak recurring cycle, has been peer reviewed in this journal.

https://www.omicsonline.org/peer-reviewed/cycling-weather-patterns-in-the-northern-hemisphere-70years-of-research-and-a-new-hypothesisp-98597.html

It specifically focuses on the potential cyclicality of extreme precipitation events in the Lake Tahoe, NV (USA) area during the drought ending 2016-2017 season over the western United States.

It's a good read and imho one piece of the larger puzzle that is the recurring rossby wave trains we see in our atmosphere.  

Our own Joe Renken also has a journal published examining the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) and the East Asia Rule (EAR) for making forecasts, especially skillful when dealing with anomalous weather, in the two-to-four-week time frame for the US using signaling from the persistent rossby wave train in the pacific teleconnected region.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/

I hope I did not butcher either hypothesis or theory too badly.  It's best just to read them :)

 

2 hours ago, jdrenken said:

To my knowledge, Gary hasn't released his cycle length. The others in the paper with Gary, also haven't released their cycle lengths. I'm sure that this could be his "signature storm".

My thanks to both of you. I have long been a subscriber of the belief that every single mechanism of action in our world is cyclical, from electron particle-wave to the motions of galaxies. There is no reason this wouldn't hold true for the meteorological scale as well. The challenge, as I see it, is that there are so many different cycles intersecting, that at this stage of understanding, it's impossible to determine perfect correlation. JD, your work (and that of Lezak, cranky, and co) is leading the field in terms of pattern recognition and advanced application. The fascinating part of that is where we go from there. As we continue to "decode" the interactions of different tele connective indices, true long-range forecasting may start to come into view in the coming years.

 

For now, even being able to sniff out a certain upper-level pattern (i.e. eastern troughiness with plentiful northern and southern stream energy) a month in advance is pretty neat.

 

Just my opinion. 

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Please just rain..........not ready for...............way too much to do at the farm before that.

Thanks for tracking guys/gals keep up the good work, won't be able to dive into the "season" until later :classic_sad:

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20 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

 

My thanks to both of you. I have long been a subscriber of the belief that every single mechanism of action in our world is cyclical, from electron particle-wave to the motions of galaxies. There is no reason this wouldn't hold true for the meteorological scale as well. The challenge, as I see it, is that there are so many different cycles intersecting, that at this stage of understanding, it's impossible to determine perfect correlation. JD, your work (and that of Lezak, cranky, and co) is leading the field in terms of pattern recognition and advanced application. The fascinating part of that is where we go from there. As we continue to "decode" the interactions of different tele connective indices, true long-range forecasting may start to come into view in the coming years.

 

For now, even being able to sniff out a certain upper-level pattern (i.e. eastern troughiness with plentiful northern and southern stream energy) a month in advance is pretty neat.

 

Just my opinion. 

I'll bite that nature/weather/climate is cyclical, but every single mechanism of action is too broad for my liking. 

As for waves in the atmosphere, positive and negative feedback mechanisms combined with constructive and destructive interference between waves of variable spatial and temporal scales make it difficult to separate signals from noise. 

I'm not sure 'perfect correlation' is physically feasible. Ultimately what is needed is a precise understanding of all physical mechanisms modulating exchange of energy, mass, and momentum at the Earth/atmosphere interface. 

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4 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I'll bite that nature/weather/climate is cyclical, but every single mechanism of action is too broad for my liking. 

 As for waves in the atmosphere, positive and negative feedback mechanisms combined with constructive and destructive interference between waves of variable spatial and temporal scales make it difficult to separate signals from noise. 

I'm not sure 'perfect correlation' is physically feasible. Ultimately what is needed is a precise understanding of all physical mechanisms modulating exchange of energy, mass, and momentum at the Earth/atmosphere interface. 

Oh, I agree completely. But "signal sniffing" may get better in the future, as you said, right now, it can be difficult to differentiate from the background noise. :D

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