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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

UTSwiinii

October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

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1 hour ago, Hobie said:

I've noticed this season that storm reports never seem to include Litchfield county.  Any insight on that?

Litchfield county is handled by the Albany NWS. Here is their storm report link. Click on version 3 and there is something reported out of Litchfield.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

The link below is the Public information link which has the rainfall totals. This link has the rainfall totals for Litchfield.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

 

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Thank you!  Of course it is, and of course that makes sense - but it would also make sense to include it in area reportings.

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1.25 inches here in central CT.

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Had some good Thunder and lightning here in Parkersburg WV this evening was under a severe Thunderstorms warning for awhile.

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9 hours ago, Hobie said:

I've noticed this season that storm reports never seem to include Litchfield county.  Any insight on that?

Albany oversees Litchfield.  Sorry, I was only posting for winds, which I didn’t think were that bad in the Albany zone. 

I always find it a blessing to live just miles away from two other NWS zones as their forecasts can provide some additional insight to where I live. 

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10 hours ago, Scott Deems said:

Had some good Thunder and lightning here in Parkersburg WV this evening was under a severe Thunderstorms warning for awhile.

I watched those storms move through your area. They were impressive considering it was only in the 50s. I got some remnant thunder and lightning from the line of storms, pushed my 3-day total to 1.14".

Between 6pm Friday and 3 am Monday measurable precipitation was recorded during 35 of the possible 57 hours or 61% of the time. I'm looking forward to sunshine this afternoon and tomorrow.

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9 hours ago, StretchCT said:

I always find it a blessing to live just miles away from two other NWS zones as their forecasts can provide some additional insight to where I live. 

I totally agree.  Very helpful to see what's being predicted/forecast even ten miles away.  Thanks, Stretch.

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17 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I watched those storms move through your area. They were impressive considering it was only in the 50s. I got some remnant thunder and lightning from the line of storms, pushed my 3-day total to 1.14".

Between 6pm Friday and 3 am Monday measurable precipitation was recorded during 35 of the possible 57 hours or 61% of the time. I'm looking forward to sunshine this afternoon and tomorrow.

Yeah it rained on and off all weekend.im looking forward to some sun shine to it's suppose to be 65 and sunny here Tuesday.

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Just now, Scott Deems said:

Yeah it rained on and off all weekend.im looking forward to some sun shine to it's suppose to be 65 and sunny here Tuesday.

Many trees started changing last week. I'm hoping fall foliage is near peak on Tuesday/Wednesday so I can get some pictures in nice weather for a change. 

 

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Mom just reported hail or gaupel on the north shore.

Crazy, tornado warning for part of the Cape.

Screenshot_20181029-103243.jpg.d9cdcea64f6e0f06999510f77a93f580.jpg

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1025 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2018

MAC001-291445-
/O.CON.KBOX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-181029T1445Z/
Barnstable MA-
1025 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

At 1024 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Sandwich, or near Barnstable, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
WEST CENTRAL BARNSTABLE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4167 7043 4169 7046 4171 7053 4181 7051
      4177 7046 4176 7042 4176 7040 4174 7035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 224DEG 38KT 4174 7044

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

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8 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Many trees started changing last week. I'm hoping fall foliage is near peak on Tuesday/Wednesday so I can get some pictures in nice weather for a change. 

 

I'd say only about 25-40% of leaves are even on the trees up here at this point.

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Third consecutive day with a consistent light-moderate rain, picked up 0.77" on Saturday , 0.48" yesterday and 0.26" so far today, although today is mostly lake induced..

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I used the WPC surface analyses to create this image of approximate low positions every 6 hours for most of the storm's duration. Since it's obviously not an Apps runner, what is it?

image.png.777b2e4c9fadd6573cd65fe57c6cdb33.png

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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5 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Mom just reported hail or gaupel on the north shore.

Crazy, tornado warning for part of the Cape.

Screenshot_20181029-103243.jpg.d9cdcea64f6e0f06999510f77a93f580.jpg

WOW!!! :classic_ohmy: I did not know this kind of activity was around this morning. Tornado Confirmed in  Suffolk County NY also during the morning.

image.thumb.png.39e2caa9325fa28fd98399a4bff590a6.png

Here is official NWS report.

Spoiler

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
217 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2018

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/29/2018 TORNADO EVENT...

.FISHERS ISLAND TORNADO...

START LOCATION...FISHERS ISLAND IN SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK
END LOCATION...FISHERS ISLAND IN SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK 
DATE...10/29/2018
ESTIMATED TIME...7:35 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65-85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...UNKNOWN YARDS
PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...APPROXIMATELY 41.25/-72.00 
ENDING LAT/LON...APPROXIMATELY 41.28/71.98
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...UNKNOWN

...SUMMARY...
FISHERS ISLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS FISHERS 
ISLAND. IN ADDITION, SMALL BUILDINGS WERE REMOVED OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS. 
THERE ARE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND NUMEROUS BOATS 
WERE TOSSED AROUND NEAR THE WATER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DUAL-POL 
RADAR CONFIRMS A WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE ISLAND SHORTLY 
AFTER 730 AM BECOMING A TORNADO, BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE AS A 
WATERSPOUT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY TORNADO SURVEY REPORT FOR FISHERS ISLAND. 
A MORE DETAILED REPORT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW AFTER THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTS AN ON SITE INVESTIGATION IN COLLABORATION 
WITH SUFFOLK COUNTY OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER LOCAL OFFICIALS.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

 

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:classic_laugh:!

1386287247_observationdeck-med(1).jpg.71e464ff5658387cf1b9a8c3f3cb36e1.jpg.a3b0f9c3b5d3d845e3b02e75bf0aa063.jpg

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4 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I used the WPC surface analyses to create this image of approximate low positions every 6 hours for most of the storm's duration. Since it's obviously not an Apps runner, what is it?

image.png.777b2e4c9fadd6573cd65fe57c6cdb33.png

Well...does App "avoider" count? 

 

Anywho...the coastal component took over at 00z 27OCT18 per your link.

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On 10/27/2018 at 8:45 PM, MaineJay said:

Getting a fair amount of thunder and lightning now.

 

 

10 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Mom just reported hail or gaupel on the north shore.

Crazy, tornado warning for part of the Cape.

Screenshot_20181029-103243.jpg.d9cdcea64f6e0f06999510f77a93f580.jpg

 

I just saw this. Basically - this storm did end up winding up pretty nicely, just past the NY/CT area. Those snowfall totals you posted in Maine + a tornado warning in MA isn't bad for our first NE'er of the year. This is the second or third date with a tornado warning in the Northeast this fall. There was a large area under a tornado watch (with a few warnings issued) a few weeks back in and all around the NY TriState area. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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1 hour ago, 90sBlizzards said:

 

 

I just saw this. Basically - this storm did end up winding up pretty nicely, just past the NY/CT area. Those snowfall totals you posted in Maine + a tornado warning in MA isn't bad for our first NE'er of the year. This is the second or third date with a tornado warning in the Northeast this fall. There was a large area under a tornado watch (with a few warnings issued) a few weeks back in and all around the NY TriState area. 

https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/467-tornado-touches-down-on-long-island/

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12 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

 

:-) Wow 

When I wrote about an F0 hitting my hometown in May of 1998 - It was like this one but slightly weaker. I'm sure there are more of these each year than are actually reported/recorded, especially when you go years back. I've seen funnel clouds in Orange County numerous times over the years when there was absolutely no mention of it anywhere in the end. 

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The high peaks of the #Catskills above 3,000 feet elevation saw a major #ice storm on Saturday. The observer estimated 2 to 3 inches of ice accretion, but the NWS believes that's too high. Regardless, the sights were incredible. (Photos: Will Soter/Upstate Adventure Guides)

 

 

BC356D13-03B7-41A3-A9C9-C95F3DF54774.jpeg

083CD595-A634-4120-BE51-55012026DA58.jpeg

Source

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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On 10/15/2018 at 4:50 AM, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

Figured you'd put a thread out. Good early season test for the BSR, we'll see how the correlation is doing these days. 

 Attached is the BSR 5 day anomaly correlation at 500MB and SLP centered on 10/27.

bsr-verification-gph-20181006-20181010-o

bsr-verification-slp-20181006-20181010-o

More here: http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html

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1 hour ago, OSNW3 said:

 Attached is the BSR 5 day anomaly correlation at 500MB and SLP centered on 10/27.

bsr-verification-gph-20181006-20181010-o

bsr-verification-slp-20181006-20181010-o

More here: http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html

To set the record straight...

The above charts wash out the 2SD situations that the BSR/EAR paper, which he co-authored, to the point of not representative of the paper.

 

Time and time again there are those who prove that true #organicforecasting techniques can be utilized with skill.

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Indeed. Forced verification is the foundation of the paper. The verification example in this thread is a general spatial correlation that is not referred to in the paper.

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On 11/5/2018 at 10:39 AM, OSNW3 said:

Indeed. Forced verification is the foundation of the paper. The verification example in this thread is a general spatial correlation that is not referred to in the paper.

I don't know what this is in response to. The recent northeast tornadoes, discussed in this thread, are both spotter - trained and professional - verified by eye. The LI/CT tor's are on video. The NWS confirmed them within 24 hours after an on site response team. Again, my post is only really in response to any challenge of confirmed F0's. They're indeed confirmed and were within 24 hours of on site footage/eye witnesses/the NWS assessment team. 

If anything, these events - as I've contended before - were and probably still are to some extent, under reported. Who's to say that damage in upstate NY in 1988 wasn't an F1? etc. Funnel clouds, waterspouts (even, and perhaps especially over lakes/rivers), and touchdowns are under reported in the Northeast. There are specific events that I've seen firsthand from Maine down through Delaware, and everywhere in between, that rivaled severe events I've seen in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and the Plains. On multiple occasions, I have personally seen large (F2-F4) sized funnel clouds that were ever so close to touching down in upstate NY. Closer the the great lakes, the higher the chance of seeing them. These are not uncommon in eastern Upstate NY (think the Capital District north and east) as well as East into New England. Touchdowns are far less common, but I still have seen numerous F0-F2 tornadoes in person, that touched down, that were never confirmed or in some cases reported. To this day. There's no way to keep track of every single tornado in every severe weather event. I can only imagine how many F0-F3's touch down in legitimate tornado alley annually that aren't confirmed. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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