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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

UTSwiinii

October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

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13 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

Oh, I agree completely. But "signal sniffing" may get better in the future, as you said, right now, it can be difficult to differentiate from the background noise. :D

The paper addressed background noise in sections 2.2 & 4...among other things.

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55 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

 

My thanks to both of you. I have long been a subscriber of the belief that every single mechanism of action in our world is cyclical, from electron particle-wave to the motions of galaxies. There is no reason this wouldn't hold true for the meteorological scale as well. The challenge, as I see it, is that there are so many different cycles intersecting, that at this stage of understanding, it's impossible to determine perfect correlation. JD, your work (and that of Lezak, cranky, and co) is leading the field in terms of pattern recognition and advanced application. The fascinating part of that is where we go from there. As we continue to "decode" the interactions of different tele connective indices, true long-range forecasting may start to come into view in the coming years.

 

For now, even being able to sniff out a certain upper-level pattern (i.e. eastern troughiness with plentiful northern and southern stream energy) a month in advance is pretty neat.

 

Just my opinion. 

So, if it's all cyclical, then would that mean that TheDayAfterTomorrow is actually TheDayBeforeYesterday?

Actual general question, though, is the the work JD is doing has been referred to as "organic" on previous pages  What does organic mean in this reference? My search of "organic Meteorology did not help.

 

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12 minutes ago, Miller A said:

So, if it's all cyclical, then would that mean that TheDayAfterTomorrow is actually TheDayBeforeYesterday?

Actual general question, though, is the the work JD is doing has been referred to as "organic" on previous pages  What does organic mean in this reference? My search of "organic Meteorology did not help.

 

Its the type you buy at Whole Foods

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23 minutes ago, Miller A said:

So, if it's all cyclical, then would that mean that TheDayAfterTomorrow is actually TheDayBeforeYesterday?

Actual general question, though, is the the work JD is doing has been referred to as "organic" on previous pages  What does organic mean in this reference? My search of "organic Meteorology did not help.

 

Organic forecasting methods use prior conditions to formulate a signal for the upcoming pattern rather than entering current conditions into a models algorithm which uses math and baseline climatology to make a best guess on future conditions. 

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7 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Organic forecasting methods use prior conditions to formulate a signal for the upcoming pattern rather than entering current conditions into a models algorithm which uses math and baseline climatology to make a best guess on future conditions. 

So I would guess there is someplace that has probably been referenced dozens of time where I could read a little about it?

 

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Just now, Miller A said:

So I would guess there is someplace that has probably been referenced dozens of time where I could read a little about it?

 

The links they tossed over at me are a good start (JD's paper will be my Friday shift reading, I suspect). OSNW3 has some stuff on his blog as well.

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30 minutes ago, Miller A said:

So, if it's all cyclical, then would that mean that TheDayAfterTomorrow is actually TheDayBeforeYesterday?

Actual general question, though, is the the work JD is doing has been referred to as "organic" on previous pages  What does organic mean in this reference? My search of "organic Meteorology did not help.

 

Organic, to me, can be aptly defined as "non computer generated" - as in, not a computer model projection. More so a corollary than anything, but also somewhat akin to analog forecasting.  

 I'd like to ask that we stay on topic within this thread, though- taking such discussion of cyclical weather to the appropriate forum.  We are getting a bit far afield from the subject at hand. 

Thanks. 

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8 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Organic, to me, can be aptly defined as "non computer generated" - as in, not a computer model projection. More so a corollary than anything, but also somewhat akin to analog forecasting.  

 I'd like to ask that we stay on topic within this thread, though- taking such discussion of cyclical weather to the appropriate forum.  We are getting a bit far afield from the subject at hand. 

Thanks. 

I squeezed in an eps 12z post lol

but here it is again (hr240) for "cyclical" sake :P.  I'll also post the gefs and geps mean from 12z (hr336).  Enjoy 

 

IMG_4644.PNG

IMG_4643.PNG

IMG_4639.PNG

Edited by Poconosnow

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4 hours ago, jdrenken said:

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh216-324.gif.0c77876567a1c9f3c4b2d21e01ca79b2.gif

12z GFS has a piece of the Pacific system move across the Northern Gulf and just missed the phase.

18z GFS needless to say did not miss the phase.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

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The Hallo-wiinii storm is quite the beast this go around - a bit late (so to speak) for a "more frozen" outcome, but still pulls down enough cold for "inland and elevation" snow. (note this is not a snow depth map and it captures and entire 72 hours, so it's for illustrative, not verbatim, purpose)

AIE.PNG.d086fc8f99e0da4d269c40e82075025a.PNG

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29 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

18z GFS needless to say did not miss the phase.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

PNA ridge was flat going in and then focused later on the Cascades doesn't help either.

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MREF set keeps this potential a pretty hot prospect

Ewall MREF

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One quick post detailing the 18z gefs h5 mean and spread 

IMG_4662.GIF.f30780814887b50881b9baa897cda5c4.GIF

caveman drawings

bottom blue arrows point to a phase uncertainity with regards to timing of PAC jet pieces

circled blue arrow depicts amplitude uncertainty and is often seen along with a phase uncertainty signature.  This is due to the depth or extension of the nothern jet and embedded shortwave

the yellow arrow shows an area of the PNA region that depicts a spread driven by impulses coming from an upstream aleutian low going through wave breaking cycles.   Notice the farther upstream we go the bigger the spread gets.  So on and so forth.

not much resolution seen in the last 24-48hrs.  Normal for a deviation spread at hr300.  Figured I'd share if there are curious cats out there who like ensemble forecasting.  #lorenzrulez lol

Edited by Poconosnow
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30 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

One quick post detailing the 18z gefs h5 mean and spread 

IMG_4662.GIF.f30780814887b50881b9baa897cda5c4.GIF

caveman drawings

bottom blue arrows point to a phase uncertainity with regards to timing of PAC jet pieces

circled blue arrow depicts amplitude uncertainty and is often seen along with a phase uncertainty signature.  This is due to the depth or extension of the nothern jet and embedded shortwave

the yellow arrow shows an area of the PNA region that depicts a spread driven by impulses coming from an upstream aleutian low going through wave breaking cycles.   Notice the farther upstream we go the bigger the spread gets.  So on and so forth.

not much resolution seen in the last 24-48hrs.  Normal for a deviation spread at hr300.  Figured I'd share if there are curious cats out there who like ensemble forecasting.  #lorenzrulez lol

Love the addition of the googly eyes, makes it much more comprehensible 😂👍

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Just picked up a nice Honda generator tonight from the fire Dept since we had a couple extra in house that we never use anymore...thank you LED lighting. Bring on a storm!

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This should be interesting in the ENS...

 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_43.png

A low of Hatteras and another scooting out ahead of it. 

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A look at the 10/17 GFS 00Z Op run for hours 264-384. Signal is still there. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-384.gif

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3 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

A look at the 10/17 GFS 00Z Op run for hours 264-384. Signal is still there. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-384.gif

Yes sir! It's a complex set up for what may become a "signature" storm (so to speak) - the models will not handle well. 

E.g. - we have a strong, but split jet configuration pushing the western side of the envelope - leading to two distinct shortwave packets which will then try to reintroduce to each other after crossing the continent; a front runner system (off the EC) that either helps or hinders the downstream situation; existing and available parcel/spoke off of the PV (so called); a potential contributor of from the tropics, uncertain height rise/block in the N Atl; all vying to assert influence over the NE quadrant of the continent. Should be easy to figure out - right? 

GFS used, solely, for illustrative purpose. 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_35.png.0cb03b0c9467f8b7cff1658f4c7361a5.png

These situations are where the OFM can really help clear the muddied waters. 

 

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06z Operational GFS, taken verbatim, shows two events; a deepening low offshore on the 26th, then a low over the Lakes translating energy to a new low off of Eastern New England on the 29th. 

 

Quote

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

The replacement FV3-GFS, on the other hand, has one quite large event. The 500mb is...interesting, to say the least. The ECM does have a storm form way off the coast, after a weaker low passes through the area. 

Quote

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

For me, it's clear that there will be a lot to resolve with energy specifics over the next week or so, as we slowly approach the medium range. 

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Interesting is that the new mjo outlook identifies the opconing 8-1 propagation 

IMG_4663.PNG.f1ceda8693d2296ada05c3bc7e10bf6e.PNG

though we see the global tropic benefits and hazard lookout singles out the upcoming mjo as possible noise from the building El Niño.  For their forecasting purpose they put the mjo signal in the background.

IMG_4665.thumb.JPG.62df014999c860005de16bfa883306f1.JPG

though the mjo signal may be polluted with noise, for our sensible weather here in the states its phase state may not pollute the composites we have looked at earlier in the thread. 

Regardless both the mjo weekly udate and the global tropic benefits and hazard lookout are always a good read.

links:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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