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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

October 23-26, 2018 | Clipper | Rain & Snow Coastal Storm

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Maine should have a fun time with this very far north Miller B coastal.

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Just now, Direct Weather said:

 

I made this before the 12z models came in, I think I need to lower amounts in vermont, but that's about it so far.

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0z NAM putting snow down all Maine counties but York as of hr 36

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Through 39 hours:  NAM 00Z much different from earlier runs.  North NH gets nailed while southern Maine is more in play.

image.png.ac096dbe6464ce46de03314e12377111.png 

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9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

0z NAM putting snow down all Maine counties but York as of hr 36

Gonna be interesting, how much moisture can the developing low throw back before downsloping dries things out.  Time of day is pretty favorable, ground will be too warm for anything to stick down here if it did manage to fall.  Elevation will definitely be a factor.

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12Z NAM through same time.

image.png.5a84ece59faac5703c2245be3b993b24.png

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9 minutes ago, TheRex said:

12Z NAM through same time.

image.png.5a84ece59faac5703c2245be3b993b24.png

That's quite a bump. I'm skeptical I see much IMBY, but the mountains could score.

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First heavy snow disco of the season.

Day 2... ...Northern New England... Potent shortwave digging into New England will induce surface cyclogenesis which will then lift northeast while strengthening into New Brunswick, Canada. Heavy snow will develop within the primary mid-level deformation axis northwest of the 700mb low across far northern New Hampshire and much of northern Maine. Although there remains some disagreement into the exact placement of this heaviest band of snow, the best overlap of lift due to height falls, sloped mid-level frontogenesis, and the presence of a modest trowal occurs over far northern Maine. Here, WPC probabilities show a moderate risk for more than 8 inches of snow. Elsewhere across northern New England including the White Mountains of NH, WPC probabilities are moderate for 4 inches of snow.

 

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As always with these scenarios, trough axis and the ability of the system to gain some maturity is key. Interesting to see 0z NAM to reverse the trend of the later maturation of the LP...coming back in line with the Euro. Still have some time so interested to see what the next cycle brings

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ECMWF painting a swath of 6-10" across the high terrain.

Screenshot_20181023-055030.thumb.jpg.28f17678ee4897963aa82a91baee61cf.jpg

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Surprised to see possibility of t-storms introduced to today’s forecast. Albany’s morning disco:

“Mid- level lapse rates will steepen to around 7.0 degrees C/km and we may even see a few rumbles of thunder later this afternoon with the heaviest showers. High temperatures will reach the 50s in many areas, especially if any sunshine can be realized during the late morning or early afternoon.”

 

 

Edited by telejunkie

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Looks like some convective elements in there.

2055775886_northeast_loop(1).gif.b1b7f6a474c0c117b01e4992cde16f1b.gif

Over to snow in Plymouth, NH at 40°

Screenshot_20181023-180448.jpg.6195145e8fd41daef0a2ba0279ffcc98.jpg

38.7° IMBY and dropping, only a few showers/drizzle so far today.

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Latest GYX snow map with an area on 8-12" and a winter storm warning.

2078742125_StormTotalSnowWeb(1).thumb.png.4cfe09770102742e731e6e15d415c775.png

GYX disco.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WAA overunning light rain has overspread the area in advance of
a s/wv upstream digging southeast. Will continue high POP`s thru
the night as baroclinic zone in advance of the approaching
system continues to develop and will enhance overrunning pcpn later
in the evening. US models have finally catched on to EURO
solution allowing strong development of a coastal low along the
ME coast tonight. Strong dynamic cooling should help wipe out
the warmer boundary layer temps in the mtns and foothills
allowing some significant accumulations to occur esp in central
somerset and northern Franklin counties where a Winter stm
Warning has been issued for tonight into Wed aftn. Elsewhere in
the mtn areas the rain will chg to a mix and then to snow with
some lighter accums expected since some of the QPF will be in
the form of rain, so a winter wx adv has been issued for
northern NH and southern Somerset and Franklin counties. Used a
blend of models for temps but then lowered from there a tad to
reflect stg dynamic cooling from aloft. As the storm winds up
late tonight into Wed morning freezing levels will fall enough
closer to the coastal midcoast areas that some ptype may fall as
snow with some light accums possible...esp in areas such as the
Camden hills etc.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The track and timing of the deepening coastal low in fairly good
agreement by models Wed but wraparound snow or mixed ptype should
continue into the eastern and northern mountain areas through
much of the day. Over southern areas winds back to northwest and
downsloping winds will bring a quick end to the pcpn and some
clearing is expected in the afternoon. Used a blend of NBM temps
for Wed but once again nudged a tad lower. Wed night the system
pulls away but CAA and downsloping gusty winds continue.

 

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Getting hammered with some “unknown” precipitation out in Pulaski ny,  looks like hail? Hard to tell while on the road but they look about pea sized..

BA9262C7-B2F5-4A79-B122-51143A877F45.jpeg

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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First WSW and WWA for the northerners?

1447514919_nwshaz.us_ne(2).thumb.png.b25794278362cfb11e74b3362b0850c5.png

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I have had several bouts of heavy sleet since returning home including thunder sleet!!!

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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1 minute ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

I have had several bouts of heavy sleet since returning home including thunder sleet!!!

:classic_ohmy:! Got any pictures? I want to feel colder. :classic_laugh:.

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Haha I tried man, melts before it hits the ground and limited lighting out in the middle of nowhere lol

 

2559735F-1244-4031-9591-035C1582E3CB.jpeg

920C8950-7878-4158-BE81-0A7F3E04E75B.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Haha I tried man, melts before it hits the ground and limited lighting out in the middle of nowhere lol

 

2559735F-1244-4031-9591-035C1582E3CB.jpeg

920C8950-7878-4158-BE81-0A7F3E04E75B.jpeg

 

Ahh that hits the spot :classic_laugh:!

Is that your first snowfall?

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1 minute ago, Solstice said:

 

Ahh that hits the spot :classic_laugh:!

Is that your first snowfall?

Had some flurries the other day and several bouts of graupel, should be approaching 0.1” lol

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Sugarloaf Resort, Maine

 

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1 hour ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

I was watching Tom Niziol on the Weather Underground segment. That was some incredible video. Thanks for the pics.

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Snowing in Bangor this morning. Lets see if anything accumulates.
 
Normal 1st accumulating snow is November 18th. So about 3 weeks early.
 
 Last time this early was 18yrs ago.
 
Last year it took till December 9th to get the first accumulating snow there.
 
[URL="https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=car"]Source:[/URL]
 
 
51bklWG.jpg
 
 
6:20am map
 
 
278hdkJ.jpg

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