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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Mike W IN ALTMAR

2018-19 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow, Forecast and OBS: Oct 15 - May 1 OBS

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Decided to continue the "tradition" of having a Season long lake effect thread..I will try to keep this thread going throughout winter with Forecast, predictions, OBS and of course photos..

 

What is a Lake Effect Snow?

 

Lake effect snow is common across the Great Lakes region during the late fall and winter. Lake Effect snow occurs when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes. As the cold air passes over the unfrozen and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, warmth and moisture are transferred into the lowest portion of the atmosphere. The air rises, clouds form and grow into narrow band that produces 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour or more.

Wind direction is a key component in determining which areas will receive lake effect snow. Heavy snow may be falling in one location, while the sun may be shining just a mile or two away in either direction. The physical geography of the land and water is also important. National Weather Service meteorologists consider these factors as well as others when forecasting lake effect snow

LakeEffectSnow_Model.jpg

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Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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On and off lake effect showers for the majority of the day, some area’s seeing their first frozen in the form of graupel/sleet..

AE531DFC-EBD9-4EA2-A9BC-0DE152AA5EB8.gif

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Lake effect clouds off in the distance..

 

EEEF9961-6325-495D-BD16-A6EA97383ADD.jpeg

Clearing skies directly overhead..

 

D6C15449-DEFD-4E84-9987-B037A75DA644.jpeg

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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1 minute ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Snowballs falling from the sky lol  Starting to accumulate some..

[radar]

[snowballs]

HRRR sounding for 2300z...weird how warm it can be in the lower levels for graupel to fall.

 

hrrr_2018101722_fh1_sounding_KFZY.png

 

 

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The next shot at lake effect s/r showers should occur on Saturday night behind the next cold front..We are still a few weeks away from any possible significant lake effect events..

972A30A8-9988-427A-9108-65AAD6FA7FB8.jpeg

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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It appears as though the LE Snow is cranking up today, hopefully someone in upstate ny posts some pics. 

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Just some on and off flurries here since last night, we have a better shot at whitening the ground tomorrow am..

Quote

A continued shift of the area of high pressure to the east tonight
will allow the low level flow to back to west then southwest. A
period of better lake fetch, particularly on Lake Ontario may
be favorable enough to reinvigorate the lake effect
precipitation as this backing transition takes place, although
relatively low inversion heights and weak warm air advection
will likely greatly limit the intensity of this activity. Most
areas will see low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid
30s.

 

The first 2 weeks of November could be a fun time for the Lake region..

 

imageproxy.gif

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More lake effect rain and sleet  which has been a common theme in the early going..About 1/4” liquid throughout the day, typical for a NW regime..

D7ED0AE5-18AB-4CAC-B717-CD79E253A3B9.gif

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If it was only 10° colder haha Nearest wunderground station has 0.64” of lake effect rain so far, also picked up 0.48” yesterday and 0.77” Saturday..

codnexlab.NEXRAD.TYX.N0Q.20181029.2017.012ani.gif

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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45085046_2310164252349666_2840692189913153536_n.png

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I know, I know, this is pretty far out, but there are signs that we could be dealing with our first lake effect snow a week from this Friday. I'll keep an eye on it, @News4Buffalo WakeUp! on CW23 'til 9 am. #4WarnWeather

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_45.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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TWC is calling for November to be at or slightly above average temps for all LES areas.  November is typically the key month for LES, because the lakes are still so warm.  

The same article is now saying that December shifts to "slightly below average," so the overall trend should be average LES activity.  By January, of course, the lakes are mostly frozen over and the LES machine shuts down.

Your mileage may vary.  Front by Front, an LES event can be something to behold.  Even from a distance they are impressive to look at.  Moving mountain-ranges, of black clouds.  Awesome.

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Looking forward to this, planning on moving back to Rochester this winter. 
 

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I was forced to resubscribe to WB haha

The Canadian GGEM as well as the ECM both have lake effect next weekend behind the 11/9 synoptic system..

 

cmc_pr6_slp_t850_syracuse_34.png

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Kbuf

Quote

Taking a quick look ahead to next weekend, 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GGEM
guidance all suggest that significantly colder air will build into
the region. This is also in line with the latest CPC 6-10 day
outlook. It far too early for specifics, but if this pattern
develops it would be cold enough to support lake effect snow next
weekend.

 

PSN72020_gefsF240.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Hi, I live in the Hudson Valley and am looking to take a trip up to around the tug hill for the first lake effect snow event for the region... Does anyone know of any direct area in the tug hill region?  What towns in the tug hill area are best to stay at in winter? I'm just trying to find out what to Google for the best towns or airbnbs for the early lake effect snow season... Any help would be awesome! 

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kbuf

Quote

Following the passage of this system...the medium range guidance
remains in strong agreement that much colder air will build into
the region for next weekend...with 850 mb temperatures dropping
off to between -10C and -12C for next Saturday. With lake surface
temperatures still running between +10C and +11C...such an airmass
would easily be plenty cold enough to support areas of lake effect
snow downwind of the lakes. While much uncertainty persists with
respect to both the timing and location of these given the very
distant time frame...at this early juncture the bulk of any lake
effect appears as if it may lie across the traditional snow belts
east of the lakes given a predominantly westerly flow. Otherwise...
Saturday should be a markedly colder day with area highs remaining
confined to the 30s.

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12 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Hi, I live in the Hudson Valley and am looking to take a trip up to around the tug hill for the first lake effect snow event for the region... Does anyone know of any direct area in the tug hill region?  What towns in the tug hill area are best to stay at in winter? I'm just trying to find out what to Google for the best towns or airbnbs for the early lake effect snow season... Any help would be awesome! 

Redfield is probably a good place to start..

 

Tug Hill Resort

 

 

 

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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0z Euro shows the potential for several inches..Looks as good as it can for lake effect lol 

Obviously still plenty time for change given its 6 days a way and all..

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018110400_192_479_323.png

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Would be quite the lake effect event if this came to fruition..

 

 

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46030C2C-59BE-4952-9251-5E172589B65A.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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