Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 17, 2018 (edited) Decided to continue the "tradition" of having a Season long lake effect thread..I will try to keep this thread going throughout winter with Forecast, predictions, OBS and of course photos.. What is a Lake Effect Snow? Lake effect snow is common across the Great Lakes region during the late fall and winter. Lake Effect snow occurs when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes. As the cold air passes over the unfrozen and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, warmth and moisture are transferred into the lowest portion of the atmosphere. The air rises, clouds form and grow into narrow band that produces 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour or more. Wind direction is a key component in determining which areas will receive lake effect snow. Heavy snow may be falling in one location, while the sun may be shining just a mile or two away in either direction. The physical geography of the land and water is also important. National Weather Service meteorologists consider these factors as well as others when forecasting lake effect snow Source Edited October 17, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 17, 2018 On and off lake effect showers for the majority of the day, some area’s seeing their first frozen in the form of graupel/sleet.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 17, 2018 (edited) Lake effect clouds off in the distance.. Clearing skies directly overhead.. Edited October 17, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 17, 2018 Snowballs falling from the sky lol Starting to accumulate some.. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheDayAfterTommorow 349 Posted October 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said: Snowballs falling from the sky lol Starting to accumulate some.. [radar] [snowballs] HRRR sounding for 2300z...weird how warm it can be in the lower levels for graupel to fall. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 19, 2018 (edited) The next shot at lake effect s/r showers should occur on Saturday night behind the next cold front..We are still a few weeks away from any possible significant lake effect events.. Edited October 19, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KENNYP2339 700 Posted October 21, 2018 It appears as though the LE Snow is cranking up today, hopefully someone in upstate ny posts some pics. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 21, 2018 Just some on and off flurries here since last night, we have a better shot at whitening the ground tomorrow am.. Quote A continued shift of the area of high pressure to the east tonight will allow the low level flow to back to west then southwest. A period of better lake fetch, particularly on Lake Ontario may be favorable enough to reinvigorate the lake effect precipitation as this backing transition takes place, although relatively low inversion heights and weak warm air advection will likely greatly limit the intensity of this activity. Most areas will see low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 30s. The first 2 weeks of November could be a fun time for the Lake region.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 25, 2018 More lake effect rain and sleet which has been a common theme in the early going..About 1/4” liquid throughout the day, typical for a NW regime.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 25, 2018 First legit light snow of the year, even starting to stick a little.. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 29, 2018 (edited) If it was only 10° colder haha Nearest wunderground station has 0.64” of lake effect rain so far, also picked up 0.48” yesterday and 0.77” Saturday.. Edited October 29, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted October 30, 2018 (edited) Quote I know, I know, this is pretty far out, but there are signs that we could be dealing with our first lake effect snow a week from this Friday. I'll keep an eye on it, @News4Buffalo WakeUp! on CW23 'til 9 am. #4WarnWeather Edited October 30, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 2, 2018 Still the potential for the first significant Les event next weekend.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RobBucksPA 392 Posted November 2, 2018 TWC is calling for November to be at or slightly above average temps for all LES areas. November is typically the key month for LES, because the lakes are still so warm. The same article is now saying that December shifts to "slightly below average," so the overall trend should be average LES activity. By January, of course, the lakes are mostly frozen over and the LES machine shuts down. Your mileage may vary. Front by Front, an LES event can be something to behold. Even from a distance they are impressive to look at. Moving mountain-ranges, of black clouds. Awesome. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RochesterSnow 144 Posted November 2, 2018 Looking forward to this, planning on moving back to Rochester this winter. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 2, 2018 I was forced to resubscribe to WB haha The Canadian GGEM as well as the ECM both have lake effect next weekend behind the 11/9 synoptic system.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 2, 2018 (edited) Kbuf Quote Taking a quick look ahead to next weekend, 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GGEM guidance all suggest that significantly colder air will build into the region. This is also in line with the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook. It far too early for specifics, but if this pattern develops it would be cold enough to support lake effect snow next weekend. Edited November 2, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HVSNOWSTORM 10 Posted November 4, 2018 Hi, I live in the Hudson Valley and am looking to take a trip up to around the tug hill for the first lake effect snow event for the region... Does anyone know of any direct area in the tug hill region? What towns in the tug hill area are best to stay at in winter? I'm just trying to find out what to Google for the best towns or airbnbs for the early lake effect snow season... Any help would be awesome! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 4, 2018 6z gfs Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 4, 2018 kbuf Quote Following the passage of this system...the medium range guidance remains in strong agreement that much colder air will build into the region for next weekend...with 850 mb temperatures dropping off to between -10C and -12C for next Saturday. With lake surface temperatures still running between +10C and +11C...such an airmass would easily be plenty cold enough to support areas of lake effect snow downwind of the lakes. While much uncertainty persists with respect to both the timing and location of these given the very distant time frame...at this early juncture the bulk of any lake effect appears as if it may lie across the traditional snow belts east of the lakes given a predominantly westerly flow. Otherwise... Saturday should be a markedly colder day with area highs remaining confined to the 30s. Source Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 4, 2018 (edited) 12 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Hi, I live in the Hudson Valley and am looking to take a trip up to around the tug hill for the first lake effect snow event for the region... Does anyone know of any direct area in the tug hill region? What towns in the tug hill area are best to stay at in winter? I'm just trying to find out what to Google for the best towns or airbnbs for the early lake effect snow season... Any help would be awesome! Redfield is probably a good place to start.. Tug Hill Resort Edited November 4, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 4, 2018 0z Euro shows the potential for several inches..Looks as good as it can for lake effect lol Obviously still plenty time for change given its 6 days a way and all.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 413 Posted November 5, 2018 (edited) Would be quite the lake effect event if this came to fruition.. Edited November 5, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
