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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Mike W IN ALTMAR

2018-19 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow, Forecast and OBS: Oct 15 - May 1 OBS

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Single digits F at 850 over the lakes. Per Euro12z. Havent checked other ingredients needed but that sure would create instability. 

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5 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Would be quite the lake effect event if this came to fruition..

 

 

AAD6197B-3416-423F-8818-535B8CFD6F52.png

46030C2C-59BE-4952-9251-5E172589B65A.png

Yea, that looks cold indeed.

12Z ECMWF 2m maximum and minimum temperatures:

 

1722812515_download(2).thumb.png.eee554380b9fc747f8f04b4f838ee79d.png

 

1185676850_download(1).thumb.png.b341f3a7e9adf5e6f612638fa9918bd2.png

 

 

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The cold and early winter calls do seem to be coming to fruition and seemingly out of nowhere. Again: Last week, I was supposed to be hovering around 70 with nighttime lows of 50's to date. Going 14 days out as of right now: I do not see a high above 46f and the NWS has 3 chances of snowfall in the forecast. 65 miles nw of NYC. You take that with the current and forecast snow cover maps and it looks like a pretty traditional, classic, early winter setting in across the country. When the blues start snowing up in Montana down to Colorado, the Great Lakes, the Plains, and the entire Northeast before Thanksgiving, with a heavy backloaded winter already assumed - things look good for snow lovers. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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First snow map of the season. general 3"-5" expected on sat/sat night..

 

StormTotalSnowWeb (1).png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Here’s CLE’s snow map for Saturday’s LE event.

88EFBCF1-AF00-498F-8603-E4588BC8F1D5.png

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At 6:01 AM, CLE issued a Winter Storm Warning for Lake Effect snow (new format :classic_dry:) for Erie County in PA. WWA in some OH counties.

Quote

Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Erie and Edinboro
601 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
5 to 9 inches will be possible during lake effect snow today.

 

5C6CA365-E720-4E57-B528-893A4C2651A0.png

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On 11/8/2018 at 8:54 AM, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

First snow map of the season. general 3"-5" expected on sat/sat night..

 

StormTotalSnowWeb (1).png

The band coming off Erie this morning is impressive, a wide swath of 1-2 in/hr with 40 mph winds. Sounds like a bonafide blizzard to my Missouri tuned ears.

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10 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

 

Tis the season... 

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Guess I'll post this here since its origins are the lakes.  Clip from this afternoons soccer game!

Video_Converter_Ultimate_20181110155739.gif.b6cdbceac019f4a39b25d36d35314241.gif

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Snow Squall Warning

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS BUFFALO NY
434 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

NYC011-049-075-102211-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SQ.W.0001.181110T2134Z-181110T2215Z/
434 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018
Cayuga County-Lewis County-Oswego County-

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Southwestern Lewis County in central New York...
Cayuga County in central New York...
Oswego County in central New York...

* Until 515 PM EST.

* At 434 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from 20 miles northwest of Oswego to 7 miles north of
Redfield, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow.
Wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

*

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 37.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Sandy Island Beach State
Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park,
Highmarket and Mexico Point State Park.

buf.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Some snow reports for NW PA and NE OH.

Quote

NOUS41 KCLE 110252
PNSCLE
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-111452-

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
952 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 6
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/cleveland

**********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              12 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...Ashtabula County...
   2 NNW Plymouth Cente   6.0   556 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 10.8 INCHES
   1 W Edgewood           3.5   500 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 SSE Kelloggsville    3.0   703 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7 INCHES
   2 W Harbor             3.0   652 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 6.5 INCHES
   2 S Ashtabula          3.0   500 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 WSW Conneaut         2.5   600 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7.5 INCHES
   1 ESE Ashtabula        2.5   813 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7.5 INCHES
   3 E South Madison      2.3   810 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 3.3 INCHES
   1 S Saybrook           2.3   637 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 NNE North Kingsvil   2.2   514 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 S Conneaut           2.1   838 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9.6 INCHES
   2 SSW Saybrook         2.0   722 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 6 INCHES
   2 WSW Harbor           0.8   522 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7.5 INCHES
   Lenox Center           0.5   905 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

...Geauga County...
   2 SE South Madison     1.0   524 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 S Montville          0.6   600 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

...Lake County...
   1 ENE Madison          2.0   723 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 SSE Mentor           1.8   752 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 W Mentor             1.0   706 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 WNW Concord          0.9   834 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 SSW Kirtland         0.2   636 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

...Portage County...
   1 NNE Kent               T   904 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

PENNSYLVANIA

...Crawford County...
   1 WSW Drakes Mills     1.4   800 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 1.7 INCHES

...Erie County...
   4 SE Harborcreek      12.0   550 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   Erie Intl Airport      7.5   700 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 13.7
   Wattsburg              6.6   534 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9 INCHES
   5 NE McKean            6.0   700 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 8.5 INCHES
   2 ESE North East       4.0   423 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   4 S Wesleyville        3.0   654 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 12.5 INCHES
   1 W McKean             2.5   630 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9 INCHES
   3 SE North East        2.3   610 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 W Avonia             2.1   541 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9.7 INCHES
   2 NW Edinboro          2.0   539 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 5.5 INCHES
   2 E Edinboro           2.0   900 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 2.9 INCHES
   3 NW Elgin             1.0   500 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 WSW Erie             0.8   439 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   Corry                  0.6   800 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 WNW North East       0.5   620 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter


***********************SNOW ON GROUND***********************

LOCATION                 SNOW     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     ON GROUND           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...Ashtabula County...
   1 W Edgewood           8.0   500 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 NNW Plymouth Cente   8.0   556 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 10.8 INCHES
   2 S Conneaut           8.0   838 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9.6 INCHES
   2 WSW Harbor           8.0   522 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7.5 INCHES
   1 ESE Ashtabula        8.0   813 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7.5 INCHES
   1 SSE Kelloggsville    7.0   703 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7 INCHES
   1 NNE North Kingsvil   7.0   514 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 W Harbor             6.0   652 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 6.5 INCHES
   2 S Ashtabula          6.0   500 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 WSW Conneaut         5.0   600 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 7.5 INCHES
   3 E South Madison      3.0   810 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 3.3 INCHES
   2 SSW Saybrook         3.0   722 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 6 INCHES
   Lenox Center           1.0   905 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

...Geauga County...
   2 SE South Madison     1.0   524 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 S Montville          1.0   600 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

...Lake County...
   1 ENE Madison          4.0   723 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   1 SSE Mentor           2.0   752 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 WNW Concord          1.0   834 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 W Mentor             1.0   706 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 SSW Kirtland           T   636 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

...Portage County...
   1 NNE Kent             1.0   904 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

PENNSYLVANIA

...Crawford County...
   1 WSW Drakes Mills     1.0   800 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 1.7 INCHES

...Erie County...
   4 S Wesleyville       11.0   654 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 12.5 INCHES
   4 SE Harborcreek      11.0   550 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 W Avonia            10.0   541 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9.7 INCHES
   Wattsburg              9.0   534 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9 INCHES
   Erie Intl Airport      9.0   700 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 13.7
   1 W McKean             9.0   630 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9 INCHES
   5 NE McKean            9.0   700 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 8.5 INCHES
   2 ESE North East       8.0   700 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 9.9 INCHES
   1 WNW North East       7.0   620 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 WSW Erie             7.0   439 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter
   2 NW Edinboro          4.0   539 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 5.5 INCHES
   2 E Edinboro           2.5   900 PM 11/10  STORM TOTAL 2.9 INCHES
   3 NW Elgin             1.0   500 PM 11/10  Trained Spotter

 

 

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Nice to see the white stuff again!! 

Didn't pick up much, right around 2" on the day...

IMG_3742.jpg

IMG_3740.jpg

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Already starting to here some rumblings about Erie again lol

Here is a quote from a member (another board) who lives in NWPA

Quote

Meanwhile, the clowns at ERI are at it again right off the bat regarding snowfall measurements. At the 5:00pm report, indicated 13.2" for the day:  http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=cle Not a freaking chance. I left the cabin about 6:30, drove up to and along the lake shore out to the from east Erie out to the airport. I would say there was maybe 5" otg? My friend said no more than 8" when it pretty much stopped by 2:00 pm and he cleared his driveway (about 3/4 of a mile from the airport). With settling/compacting, the 5 or 6 on the ground seems right. So once again, the airport is off by a staggering 38% or so.

 

imageproxy.jpg

 

Source

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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3 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Already starting to here some rumblings about Erie again lol

Here is a quote from a member (another board) who lives in NWPA

 

imageproxy.jpg

 

Source

I’ll cut them some slack for the F up last year since they had a whole three weeks on the job before being thrown at a record setting event.  Still they were staggeringly off when the committee came to a determination. 

No real excuse now unless they fired those observers and hired new ones again for this season.  They should have got learned real quick after the asschewing they probably got last year about the difference in measuring snowfall and snow depth during heavy long lasting snow.

 

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Watches are up

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

NYZ004>006-132245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.181114T0000Z-181114T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
931 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible in the most
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Eastern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and western Oswego
  counties.

* WHEN...From this evening through Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

 

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Yea looks like a good hit in the southern part of the county and into the syracuse area...

Was originally expecting nada but the NWS now has 2"-3" in the forecast , with lake effect u just never know..

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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Starting to see streamers off Lake Ontario

streamers.gif

Warnings Up Now

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
904 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

NYZ018-036-150000-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-181115T0000Z/
Onondaga-Madison-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, and Oneida
904 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 10 inches, with locally around 1 foot expected in
  Onondaga County. 5 to 8 inches in Madison County. The heaviest
  snow will be late tonight through midday Wednesday.

* WHERE...Onondaga and Madison Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to nearly
  impossible at times. The hazardous winter conditions will
  likely impact the Wednesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for lake effect snow means severe winter
weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

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