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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Mike W IN ALTMAR

2018-19 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow, Forecast and OBS: Oct 15 - May 1 OBS

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.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
  expected.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region, mainly over the Tug
  Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

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This was originally supposed to be rain/snow mix and upper 30's for us in the "lower elevations" at only 600 feet asl..

The NWS continues to trend colder and throw a few inches my way..

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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How many surprises can I have in 1 day lol 

We were supposed to get 5” from the synoptic system and we saw 13”..

We were supposed to get less then 1/2” with the secondary disturbance and we saw little over 2”..

Tonight into tomorrow was supposed to be mostly rain with temps near 40, now all rain has been removed from the forecast..

Seeing some moderate lake effect snow at the moment..

0031CD56-574F-45B8-A678-A38E46B72B88.jpeg

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Forecast

Tuesday Night
Snow showers, mainly after 11pm. Low around 26. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. High near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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WPC added us to the "at least" moderate risk for 4"..

 

 

day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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NW PA in the “CLE area bullseye” this go around. Not too much predicted in OH.

 

F44779E7-4C17-4089-AD3F-78C8A408E9FE.png

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5 hours ago, jdrenken said:

This thread could get active next week.

I hope you're right!!  For all the cold air that's been around, just not quite cold enough or the right set-up to produce significant LE snows in OH so far this season.

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph producing blowing and drifting
  snow.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest accumulations across the Tug
  Hill.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road
  conditions and very poor visibility.

 

WWA

Spoiler

day1_psnow_gt_04.gif

Spoiler

StormTotalSnow.png

 

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Moderate-heavy snow, big fluffy flakes, nearing 2”..

 

4BE569D8-9C58-4860-BB05-2BBD7F895894.gif

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Picked up 1" from the squall line , winds starting to pick up creating blizzard like conditions..

"Finished" with 5.5", bringing me to a little over 2 feet on the young season with another 9 days left to pile on before November comes to an end..

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Euro really crushes the area mon-wed after the synoptic rainstorm moves through..

Spoiler

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_syracuse_29.png

 

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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I drove into one of the strongest squalls earlier in the night around 6pm.  Near whiteout conditions and roads were covering up within minutes.

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Monday Night
Rain showers likely before midnight, then rain and snow showers likely between midnight and 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow showers. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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Absolutely destroyed on the Fv3, that model and the euro really hammer this area on a west wind..Trying to hold back my excitement given its 5 days away and almost guaranteed to change..

CF9FCA2A-FE8D-4F82-8766-B7B1FE3097BB.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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CLE thinks all the necessary ingredients are there.  Just need to determine that all important wind direction to see who gets lucky.

Quote

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look active for the snow
belt region of NE Ohio and NW PA. An upper level cut off low will
continue spinning over Canada, providing several waves of energy and
favorable flow for a multi-day lake effect snow event. As said
before, too early to talk about snow amounts or headlines, but with
plenty of residual synoptic moisture about, especially in the DGZ,
could be a long week of snow for the kind folks in NE Ohio and NW
PA. Will continue likely pops in the snow belt for Tuesday and
Wednesday. As for Thursday, there is a good spread in the model
guidance for what happens mid-to-late next week as they try to
resolve this upper level cut off low. For now, will continue with
generic slight chance and chance pops on Thursday with higher pops
in the snow belt. Temperatures will be back below normal as cold,
Canadian air will stream into the region with the upper low over the
region.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Absolutely destroyed on the Fv3, that model and the euro really hammer this area on a west wind..Trying to hold back my excitement given its 5 days away and almost guaranteed to change..

CF9FCA2A-FE8D-4F82-8766-B7B1FE3097BB.png

WPC is liking the west wind.

 

5BE87528-A647-4836-8B89-BC9F7D2211CA.gif

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kbuf

Quote

H85 temperatures over the Lower Great lakes during this period will
average between -8 and -10c...which will certainly be low enough to
support lake snows downwind of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. While
there is some spread in the variance of the steering winds between
the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles...there is the risk for a prolonged
westerly fetch lake snow event. This would target the Tug Hill and
portions of the Southern Tier with several feet of snow...so stay
tuned for refinements in the forecast and possible watches.

 

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What a crush job on the euro, nearly 2" of lake effect precip with a max of 2.5"-3" over carol's in North redfield lol

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018112412_156_3586_323.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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