Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Mike W IN ALTMAR

2018-19 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow, Forecast and OBS: Oct 15 - May 1 OBS

Staff Recommended Posts

The latest from CLE has an increasing confidence in a significant LE event.  Now to figure out where. Personally, hoping for a bit of a northerly component to winds Tues/Wed.

Quote

Forecast sounding profiles show the lower inversion around 5K feet
initially but by Tuesday, but the inversion rises to around 8K feet
or so Tuesday night into Wednesday. The medium range guidance show a
decent uptick in moisture depth and overall profile Tuesday night
and Wednesday across much of the snowbelt region from the Cleveland
area eastward into the higher elevations of NW Pennsylvania. Surface
winds will increase from the west-northwest on Wednesday with 850 mb
temps around that -12C to -13C. At this time, we will mention an
increase potential for moderate to heavy lake effect snow in the
primary snowbelt areas by mid week and at least light snow for the
secondary snowbelt areas. Some guidance is showing the potential for
6 to 12 plus inches of snowfall for the primary snowbelt. It is
still 3 days away and we will fine tune timing, amounts, and
location over the next day or so.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kbuf pretty much going day by day..

This is for Tuesday into Wednesday morning..

I just squeezed into the 6”-8” range, which would be fine by me , day one..

107F1D68-D648-4FFD-AE49-2A543B8B14AD.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CLE’s updated snow map.  Includes one additional day as compared to BUF’s map. To “westerly” for my liking.

67BCDEAC-6C96-412D-9479-18A5A2AE5B1A.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Predicted snow totals continue to increase across NE OH and NW PA. Watches issued for 3 OH counties and 2 in PA. Amounts increased into Ohio’s ‘Secondary Snow Belt’ as well. 

76DD5027-94F8-4AA5-A953-3E5B97299972.png

Edited by Hiramite

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warnings issued for Erie and Crawford Co's in PA.  Advisories for OH counties tonight with Watches still up for tomorrow night.

asw.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Warnings issued for Erie and Crawford Co's in PA.  Advisories for OH counties tonight with Watches still up for tomorrow night.

asw.PNG

Watch the winds too

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph can be expected along the lakeshore with gusts of 30 to 40 mph inland.

Quote

Winter Storm Watch


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
306 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

...Prolonged Period Of Snow Expected...

.Low pressure will move northeast of Lake Erie this evening,
pulling a cold front across the area. Much colder air will move
into the area tonight with rain transitioning to snow. Precipitation
on the back side of this system will bring several inches of snow
to the snowbelt tonight. Ohio counties can expect a lull during
the day on Tuesday while snow is likely to continue in
Pennsylvania. Another trough will swing south across Lake Erie
Tuesday night with heavy lake effect snow developing and
continuing through Wednesday night. Winds off Lake Erie will be
strong at times, especially with the frontal passage tonight. Wind
gusts of 40-50 mph can be expected along the lakeshore with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph inland.

OHZ012>014-089-270415-
/O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0019.181127T0000Z-181127T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KCLE.WS.A.0004.181128T0000Z-181129T0900Z/
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Including the cities of Mentor, Chardon, Jefferson, and Ashtabula
306 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches expected tonight with the
  highest amounts focused inland. Additional lake effect snow in
  excess of 6 inches is possible Tuesday night through Wednesday
  night.

* WHERE...Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula Inland and Ashtabula Lakeshore
  counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 7 PM this evening
  to 10 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Tuesday
  evening through late Wednesday night.

* WINDS...Northwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph tonight except
  up to 50 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline. Wind gusts to 30
  mph will continue through Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be difficult at times. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

A Winter Storm Watch for heavy lake effect snow means there is a
potential for a large amount of snow in only a few hours.
Visibilities and depth of snow can vary greatly, impacting travel
significantly. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

The latest road conditions can be obtained from the Department of
Transportation web site.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, PlanetMaster said:

Watch the winds too

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph can be expected along the lakeshore with gusts of 30 to 40 mph inland.

 

Now you tell me! :classic_smile:

Just got a text from my neighbor who is in FL. His housekeeper called him and said a tree was blocking their drive. Had to go and cut it up for him. (The streaks in the pic is the snow that’s just starting.)

410E6B61-E844-4CFF-A2EB-61D2C86E6D05.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last night’s snow ranged from 2-7” in OH’s snowbelt counties. 2.9” IMBY.

Always a toss-up where to post these  ‘Lake Enhanced’ snows.  I’m posting here since OH’s snow was predominantly from the lake last night.

Awaiting the trough later today to get the Lake fired up again. Conditions are marginal but should be good enough to yield amounts similar to last night. (CLE reduced predicted amounts.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gotta love early season snows.

 

7EF81D0D-04B4-4C31-BC3F-354AEF580367.jpeg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Highest totals for this past Lake enhanced/effect event in the CLE forecast area was 18” in Erie County PA (Harborcreek) and 7.6” in Ashtabula County OH (Monroe Center). 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This time period in general looks to be active, but with no
indications at any large precip. events. This is the result of a
large (longitudinal) low amplitude upper level trough over the
northern half of the US. This trough will provide periodic bouts of
synoptic moisture and combined with cold 850Ts there will be the
potential for on and off lake effect snow through this time period.
There is some indications that a better lake effect setup will occur
for Wednesday into Thursday, and as we get closer to that time,
model agreement should become better aligned.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Occasional lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the most
  persistent lake snows, with the greatest amounts expected
  across the Tug Hill.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel conditions could be hazardous at
  times, and could impact the morning or evening commute.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You know u live in a snowy region when watertown is expected near double digits and has a winter weather advisory lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watertown area getting crushed right now..

Just some light snow imby at the moment as everything is just to the north..

20884576-B1C2-4E12-9468-192FB3E4C573.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another "smallish" event today and tonight..

I was kinda suprised no advisory's were issued..

I guess they figure we'd just sweep it away....

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (1).png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty good returns on radar south of Syracuse

BGM_loop.gif.b79e2934dd303fb2aa9f75fad6270dfb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Glad to see the forum back up and running :chicken_dance-176:

A little over an inch so far on the day, have a pretty sweet band moving through at the moment...

 

F204B3B6-7AED-48A4-88CC-C26C6C2C1E93.thumb.gif.d14a120db03c33d11f519075f100a7c7.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
..A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN JEFFERSON...LEWIS
AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 801 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour will continue across southern and eastern
Jefferson County, northern and western Lewis County, and northern
Oswego County. The heavier snow will only last for less than an hour
in any one location, but will result in deteriorating travel
conditions.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 36 and 47.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Glad to see the forum back up and running :chicken_dance-176:

A little over an inch so far on the day, have a pretty sweet band moving through at the moment...

 

Nothing happening in the CLE area tonight, it’s really been a “dead year” here. Heard reports this morning of ice forming in the bays in the western part of Erie.  Hopefully this upcoming “warm” spell will slow the freeze-up and we still get a chance of some decent LES.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×