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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Mike W IN ALTMAR

2018-19 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow, Forecast and OBS: Oct 15 - May 1 OBS

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4" fresh inches so far today as this band has set up shop...

1214034395_WUNIDS_map(1).gif.4cacbae22ca7ac296e96a5a13b6f2f58.gif

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 6:43 AM, StretchCT said:

We had some streamers make it here in CT yesterday, but as rain...in January...after the cold front. 

nooooo rain come on your kidding rain in jan :classic_tongue:

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@Mike W IN ALTMAR well...hows the event going? I bet the drifting is just incredible, possible life threatening weather with the cold, winds and heavy snow

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Wow, just saw the 12z 3km NAM forecasting more than 5 feet off Lake Ontario over the next 60 hours. The thought of averaging 1" per hour for several consecutive days makes me drool. Enjoy and stay safe @Mike W IN ALTMAR

1-30 12z 3km NAM LES h60.png

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The event doesn't start for me till tomorrow into friday..

I'm right on the southern fringes so it is a really tough call, as usual all the meso-models show something different..

The 3k nam went from a couple inches to a few feet in about 10 miles lol

NWS calling for 16"-26" so we'll see..At the end of the day the Lake is going to do what it wants..

I live 6miles ESE of Pulaski..

 

StormTotalSnow (7).png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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10 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

 

Absolutely amazing!!!

Two comments: 1). Some of those views actually looked like he was in a hurricane.   2).  Gotta love the people that venture out in weather like that wearing only a hoodie!

  • Haha 2

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Took all day to make it this far south, but finally made it lol

Ripping out at the moment, 1"-2" type stuff..

Band should stay in place till 10-11am before dissipating..

WUNIDS_map (2).gif

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What does the lake effect looks like for next weekend?  2/9-2/11? 

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WNW flow keeping everything south, southern part of the county..

Picked up a quick a couple inches on it's way down, real issue is the wind, gusting 40-60mph..True blizzard conditions.. :classic_ninja:

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Lots of ice on Erie. It certainly reduces the amount of LES but water vapor and heat can still be transported thru the ice resulting in some LES. Cracks in the ice also allow for LES development. Case in point, Buffalo area on Jan 30. 

Here’s some further reading.

http://people.hws.edu/laird/index_files/pubs/2008-Cordeira-Laird-mwr.pdf

EAE7A7BE-EAB9-4586-B972-8134971C8F6B.gif

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Lake effect starting to fire up on a WSW/SW flow , should start to veer Westerly later this afternoon before going WNW by morning..

Go big or go home is kbuf motto lol

Calling for 9"-17" this afternoon and overnight..

I don't think they have gotten one call right yet this year lol

 

StormTotalSnowWeb (6).png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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7 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Still snowing moderately, should end within the next few hours..

How about some pics Mike?

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On 2/12/2019 at 7:54 PM, Hiramite said:

Lots of ice on Erie. It certainly reduces the amount of LES but water vapor and heat can still be transported thru the ice resulting in some LES. Cracks in the ice also allow for LES development. Case in point, Buffalo area on Jan 30. 

Here’s some further reading.

http://people.hws.edu/laird/index_files/pubs/2008-Cordeira-Laird-mwr.pdf

EAE7A7BE-EAB9-4586-B972-8134971C8F6B.gif

Great article. Thanks for the find and read

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On Lake Ontario...we will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect
snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon.
This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of Lake Ontario,
though impacts will mainly be across far southern Jefferson County,
as well as Lewis and Oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are
expected to increase to around 8-9K feet which will be plenty tall
enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind
convergence from both the north and south shoreline of Lake Ontario
will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of
lake snow.

While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to
potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and
Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like
conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing
snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to
northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow
across the southern Tug Hill region, Oswego county and possibly
begin to clip northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga by Monday night.
However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state

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Possibly the last chance at a significant lake effect event this winter..

Looks like a potential long duration event with oscillating bands..

Monday
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night
A chance of snow showers before 9pm, then snow likely after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday
Occasional snow. High near 17. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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