Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted January 28 (edited) 4" fresh inches so far today as this band has set up shop... Edited January 28 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brodoser1 203 Posted January 28 On 1/7/2019 at 6:43 AM, StretchCT said: We had some streamers make it here in CT yesterday, but as rain...in January...after the cold front. nooooo rain come on your kidding rain in jan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KENNYP2339 1,015 Posted January 30 @Mike W IN ALTMAR well...hows the event going? I bet the drifting is just incredible, possible life threatening weather with the cold, winds and heavy snow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StL WeatherJunkie 815 Posted January 30 Wow, just saw the 12z 3km NAM forecasting more than 5 feet off Lake Ontario over the next 60 hours. The thought of averaging 1" per hour for several consecutive days makes me drool. Enjoy and stay safe @Mike W IN ALTMAR 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted January 31 (edited) The event doesn't start for me till tomorrow into friday.. I'm right on the southern fringes so it is a really tough call, as usual all the meso-models show something different.. The 3k nam went from a couple inches to a few feet in about 10 miles lol NWS calling for 16"-26" so we'll see..At the end of the day the Lake is going to do what it wants.. I live 6miles ESE of Pulaski.. Edited January 31 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted January 31 This is why it's hard to trust even meso models for LES.. Max of 118" lmao Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted January 31 Here is the 12 k NAm.. I live at 43.54N 76.02W Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RochesterSnow 202 Posted January 31 From my friend in Lancaster, NY 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hiramite 543 Posted January 31 10 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said: Absolutely amazing!!! Two comments: 1). Some of those views actually looked like he was in a hurricane. 2). Gotta love the people that venture out in weather like that wearing only a hoodie! 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted February 1 Took all day to make it this far south, but finally made it lol Ripping out at the moment, 1"-2" type stuff.. Band should stay in place till 10-11am before dissipating.. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jeepxj 20 Posted February 2 What does the lake effect looks like for next weekend? 2/9-2/11? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StL WeatherJunkie 815 Posted February 9 How's it looking out there @Mike W IN ALTMAR? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted February 9 WNW flow keeping everything south, southern part of the county.. Picked up a quick a couple inches on it's way down, real issue is the wind, gusting 40-60mph..True blizzard conditions.. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hiramite 543 Posted February 13 Lots of ice on Erie. It certainly reduces the amount of LES but water vapor and heat can still be transported thru the ice resulting in some LES. Cracks in the ice also allow for LES development. Case in point, Buffalo area on Jan 30. Here’s some further reading. http://people.hws.edu/laird/index_files/pubs/2008-Cordeira-Laird-mwr.pdf 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted February 13 (edited) Lake effect starting to fire up on a WSW/SW flow , should start to veer Westerly later this afternoon before going WNW by morning.. Go big or go home is kbuf motto lol Calling for 9"-17" this afternoon and overnight.. I don't think they have gotten one call right yet this year lol Edited February 13 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted February 14 It has been pouring snow the last couple hours or so..Nearing 4" on the night.. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted February 14 Up to 7" so far.. Still snowing moderately, should end within the next few hours.. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KENNYP2339 1,015 Posted February 14 7 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said: Still snowing moderately, should end within the next few hours.. How about some pics Mike? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poconosms1 59 Posted February 15 not sure where this best fits. An uprising to the FV3 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?fbclid=IwAR2kUDNw4pmXe1eaXBER9vT1OWP0u7B98p-oxjrAD00oMSZHKzqT2PuonuE&utm_term=.f59c514ad776 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Uscg ast 1,486 Posted February 21 On 2/12/2019 at 7:54 PM, Hiramite said: Lots of ice on Erie. It certainly reduces the amount of LES but water vapor and heat can still be transported thru the ice resulting in some LES. Cracks in the ice also allow for LES development. Case in point, Buffalo area on Jan 30. Here’s some further reading. http://people.hws.edu/laird/index_files/pubs/2008-Cordeira-Laird-mwr.pdf Great article. Thanks for the find and read Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted February 23 On Lake Ontario...we will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon. This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of Lake Ontario, though impacts will mainly be across far southern Jefferson County, as well as Lewis and Oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are expected to increase to around 8-9K feet which will be plenty tall enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind convergence from both the north and south shoreline of Lake Ontario will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of lake snow. While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow across the southern Tug Hill region, Oswego county and possibly begin to clip northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga by Monday night. However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted March 2 Possibly the last chance at a significant lake effect event this winter.. Looks like a potential long duration event with oscillating bands.. Monday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night A chance of snow showers before 9pm, then snow likely after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Occasional snow. High near 17. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
