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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 1-7, 2018 | Fropa(s)

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So we have another strong organic signal for the first week in November.

BSR

IMG_4776.GIF.506273c56047286eac6a308a09f90bef.GIFIMG_4777.GIF.c091af034d88295b3b752b15489e39f8.GIF

 

Typhoon rule has a recurving typhoon around the 26th which is a nice middle ground of ~8day lead for a trough on the east coastIMG_4775.thumb.GIF.a575a7319f0401984ab06e82879c3a7b.GIF

 

Operationally the 06z gfs has the best modeling signal we have by the "number crunchers"

IMG_4774.PNG.0f27cc0fcf22d794bdc5c1a186f93553.PNG

 

Now some wiinii's may find this storm even more satisfying as the large hallo-wiinii storm pulls down some cold air in its wake.  Regardless it looks like we have a little pattern shaping up to keep an eye on.  Cheers!

Edited by Poconosnow
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Bolded the part i am most excited about heading into winter. :classic_biggrin:

55 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Now some wiinii's may find this storm even more satisfying as the large hallo-wiinii storm pulls down some cold air in its wake.  Regardless it looks like we have a little pattern shaping up to keep an eye on.  Cheers!

 

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@Poconosnow, good morning! 

Do you expect a inland storm like the BSR displays having  in mind the possible cold package it could bring down into the region, or a colder coastal storm? 

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Seems like a pretty straight forward storm.  Enters in WA, dips down to the gulf, heads NE and exits (kinda) around the same lat it came in. No funny stuff (like interacting with other systems or random behavior)  until its north of the border.  Even the 0z run,though being a clipper/GLC,  is typical. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

@Poconosnow, good morning! 

Do you expect a inland storm like the BSR displays having  in mind the possible cold package it could bring down into the region, or a colder coastal storm? 

 

The exact track is yet to be determined 

 at this lead time I use organics to lead me to a pattern.  Then we fill in the details as we close in.

 

A couple things I can presume:

Colder air will be available.

The typhoon rule is also one of the best organic signals.  Models are split on a recurve. Gfs and nav recurve.  Cmc and euro plow straight towards Indian Ocean and the jma is indifferent.  Will watch closely as east Asia modeling is volatile and swings largely even at short lead time.  A true recurve will most certainly help lend to an east coast trough.

Bsr indicates a possible transfer of sorts, so maybe looking at a miller A/B hybrid to some extent.  The BSR is not a total 1:1 correlation.  So it shouldn't be interpreted verbatim.

This does seem a little more straight forward synoptically compared to the Halloween storm which carries many intricacies.

"pattern first details later", and it does indeed look like a pattern is occurring for the eastern US.

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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8 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

 

The exact track is yet to be determined 

 at this lead time I use organics to lead me to a pattern.  Then we fill in the details as we close in.

 

A couple things I can presume:

Colder air will be available.

The typhoon rule is also one of the best organic signals.  Models are split on a recurve. Gfs and nav recurve.  Cmc and euro plow straight towards Indian Ocean and the jma is indifferent.  Will watch closely as east Asia modeling is volatile and swings largely even at short lead time.  A true recurve will most certainly help lend to an east coast trough.

Bsr indicates a possible transfer of sorts, so maybe looking at a miller A/B hybrid to some extent.  The BSR is not a total 1:1 correlation.  So it shouldn't be interpreted verbatim.

This does seem a little more straight forward synoptically compared to the Halloween storm which carries many intricacies.

"pattern first details later", and it does indeed look like a pattern is occurring for the eastern US.

 

 

Alright. Thanks!

Indeed, it seems there is a pattern setting up for November.

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20 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Alright. Thanks!

Indeed, it seems there is a pattern setting up for November.

Gotta admit it's fun seeing some Autumn storm action.  Especially to this extent with a mini pattern delivering storms at a decent clip. 

 

A loop if the gfs 06z height anomalies over east Asia shows a lot of "spokes" swinging down into the east coast correlate along with two recurving typhoons (gfs representation used for consistency)

it doesn't mean much at this lead time but it's encouraging. 

IMG_4778.thumb.GIF.f9f1cedcf0ab9a140b6e41864c0c3909.GIF

 

Now let's looks into the organic forecast through a computers eye.  Here is an entire run from the 06z gfs showing quite the active pattern of low pressure in the eastern Bering sea.  

 

IMG_4790.thumb.GIF.b4b3391c254ae0da24a209af5b07ffc2.GIF

We can't conclude much from this being that it is only a long range represention of an even longer range organic signal. Though seeing the height falls in that location along with the east Asia loop, there does appear to be for a good chance at recurring cool shots and storminess in the eastern USA possibly through mid November.  We shall see !

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Well...I'll be back away on my trip to Florida from 10/24-10/31. Since I'll miss what seems to be a storm threat right before I come back, this one could...and I say could be a colder solution. We shall see.

P.S. it's nice to be back, albeit a new forum...but, with the same ole crew. Look forward to 2018/2019 Winter

Edited by Snowcrazed71
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Well look who decided to join the typhoon recurve party at 12z

 

IMG_4830.thumb.GIF.0b4ed7fd234f83a47f90095f541eb822.GIF

Not only a recurve but it it entrenches itself into negative height anomalies that cross over Japan on the 28th

also note the rising height/ridging over Mongolia which should correlate to a possible +pna here in the states 6-10d later

A solid organic signal imho

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Having the TR showing a stronger signal, definitely increases the potential for the flup system to come to fruition. 

Precip type, comes down to track on this one - and whether Hallo-wiinii storm (and resultant quazi PV established thereafter) can source the cold air closely enough for the system to work with. 

As always, we must clear the first, before getting too serious about this. But the OFM are displaying pretty amazing correlative effect, and that helps sort through much of the noise. 

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Just keeping things up to date

18z gfs h5 has a nice look

IMG_4842.PNG.975443f58a617decaf3ac561dc36617c.PNG

Leads to this at surface IMG_4841.PNG.ba6564b7e13cb93504a3fcd9cee58e8a.PNG

Still there

 

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For those who wish to follow along with any pacific typhoon here is a link to the JTWC

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Currently 97w is our possible suspect and is listed with a high probability of formation into a tropical cyclone  within 24hrs

IMG_4897.JPG

Edited by Poconosnow

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The pattern of back-to-back Nor'Easter's is awfully reminiscent of last spring. It will be interesting to see how long it lasts.

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Not much to report on

models  waffling greatly due to the uncertainty regarding the hallowiinii storm. 

Typhoon is still recurving ~28th and tbh this may be a good test for the tried and true TR as there are a few indications of a mid continental troughung and a storm track for this period that favors a type of GLC

do note the mention of an analog driven pattern for this type of weather into Dec. wo fun

tidbit from uncle Larry. Fwd from JD, thx

IMG_4934.thumb.JPG.04ced893ccaf8e01fdc217616ddbcc8e.JPG

Ill throw in the long range Fim from last night since at this time it appears to be one of the only models showing the depth of a US trough that's probable from a recurving typhoon

 

IMG_4933.thumb.PNG.d031fecc882b4924116db689809e739c.PNG

Edited by Poconosnow
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1 hour ago, Poconosnow said:

Not much to report on

models  waffling greatly due to the uncertainty regarding the hallowiinii storm. 

Typhoon is still recurving ~28th and tbh this may be a good test for the tried and true TR as there are a few indications of a mid continental troughung and a storm track for this period that favors a type of GLC

do note the mention of an analog driven pattern for this type of weather into Dec. wo fun

tidbit from uncle Larry. Fwd from JD, thx

IMG_4934.thumb.JPG.04ced893ccaf8e01fdc217616ddbcc8e.JPG

Ill throw in the long range Fim from last night since at this time it appears to be one of the only models showing the depth of a US trough that's probable from a recurving typhoon

 

IMG_4933.thumb.PNG.d031fecc882b4924116db689809e739c.PNG

BSR certainly supports something (big?) around that time as well...

output_O4hndV.gif.02b400fc139e875d66b18b8327326e97.gif

My wedding is November 2nd, so as long as we don't get any crazy snowstorm that day, I will be fine with this! Lol

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On 10/19/2018 at 8:08 AM, Poconosnow said:

So we have another strong organic signal for the first week in November.

BSR

IMG_4776.GIF.506273c56047286eac6a308a09f90bef.GIFIMG_4777.GIF.c091af034d88295b3b752b15489e39f8.GIF

 

Typhoon rule has a recurving typhoon around the 26th which is a nice middle ground of ~8day lead for a trough on the east coastIMG_4775.thumb.GIF.a575a7319f0401984ab06e82879c3a7b.GIF

 

Operationally the 06z gfs has the best modeling signal we have by the "number crunchers"

IMG_4774.PNG.0f27cc0fcf22d794bdc5c1a186f93553.PNG

 

Now some wiinii's may find this storm even more satisfying as the large hallo-wiinii storm pulls down some cold air in its wake.  Regardless it looks like we have a little pattern shaping up to keep an eye on.  Cheers!

 

9 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

BSR certainly supports something (big?) around that time as well...

output_O4hndV.gif.02b400fc139e875d66b18b8327326e97.gif

My wedding is November 2nd, so as long as we don't get any crazy snowstorm that day, I will be fine with this! Lol

 

Indeed.  The BSR signal along with the Typhoon Rule were the main reasons for signaling this time period and opening a thread to track our observations along the way. 

Appreciate the gif.  Always awesome to see the BSR with overlay to truly get a sense of the output. 

I do believe that any storm affecting the Northeast from this will be a type of transfer/hybrid miller B.  

Cheers.

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12z gfs op has a quasi frontal passage but does indeed show a semi organized surface reflection atleast 

not too bad for 300hr+ lead

Grain o salt for now as we wait for first storm to resolve. Just keepin her up to date.

 

IMG_4951.PNG

IMG_4952.PNG

IMG_4953.PNG

IMG_4954.PNG

IMG_4955.PNG

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Fv3 from 12z 

would not put much stock into this as the h5 flow between the next storm and this threat appears a bit convulted in its depiction 

 

IMG_4961.GIF

Edited by Poconosnow

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112200z gefs control and spread h5

 

IMG_4966.GIF

Not looking great for an eastern storm track, however a large amount of spread still exists both up and downstream 

so we soldier on 

Edited by Poconosnow

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More pacific mayhem leading into this period

A jet split on the west coast along with quite a few lps with a large anticyclonic wave breaking event in the middle 

IMG_4991.PNG

Edited by Poconosnow

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21 hours ago, jdrenken said:

ESRL from this morning...control went negative.

spag_f312_ussm.png

Again, I kinda like this because of what the BSR was depicting. Btw, where do you pull this map from @jdrenken?

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