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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 1-7, 2018 | Fropa(s)

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46 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

 

1 hour ago, weather_boy2010 said:

Again, I kinda like this because of what the BSR was depicting. Btw, where do you pull this map from @jdrenken?

Another esrl psd link..

shared info is the best info :)

Here are probalistic composite maps link that essentially matches the cpc's duration 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/probabilities/index.html

For example here is height for the 8-14d timeframe, closest to this thread 

 

IMG_4998.PNG

Edited by Poconosnow
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29 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

 

18 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

 

Anither estl psd link..

shared info is the best info :)

Here are probalistic composite maps link that essentially matches the cpc's duration 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/probabilities/index.html

For example here is height for the 8-14d timeframe, closest to this thread 

 

IMG_4998.PNG

Thank you to you both! That's how I've learned a lot of what I know today, through shared information!

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18z fv3 

 

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This is the 2-3rd but the PNA as depicted with the mean trough for this timeframe is a good representation on how the east can see a storm for this period. The eastern us/Atlantic ridging is not as strong allowing for the track that is depicted.  

Ya know, just keeping things up to date best I can while providing some objective information as it relates to this period.

 

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Just now, Poconosnow said:

18z fv3 

 

IMG_5008.PNG

IMG_5009.PNG

IMG_5010.PNG

IMG_5011.PNG

This is the 2-3rd but the PNA as depicted with the mean trough for this timeframe is a good representation on how the east can see a storm for this period. The western ridging is not as strong allowing for the track that is depicted.  

Ya know, just keeping things up to date best I can while providing some objective information as it relates to this period.

 

 

 

This 18Z FV3 run looks better than the other few past runs, if the goa, is getting snow in the Northeeast US.

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As is the case with east Asia modeling, 97w now waits to recurve until the 31st of october

IMG_5015.PNG.6e99d8ee5065d7c745fd8a79010302b3.PNG

the euro in fact hardly recurved anything substantial on 0z run last night

this unfortunately falls in line with how the mean continental us trough is starting to look for this period (central US based) on the numerical modeling.  More likely than not, thus period will simply be a frontal passage with a cold rain. 

notice the anomalies on this east Asia forecast depicting ridging in the west is and ridging in the east with a deep trough in central us 

IMG_5016.PNG.69e41063c811355697ae14deda22c705.PNG

 

i will dive in a bit further this afternoon when I have time 

but all is not lost, it may simply mean nov 7-10th could be a better time period to investigate for an ecs 

Threads like this are a learning experience, so I will keep updating regardless until we know for sure

umlike other organic signals the typhoon rule in the longer is based on modeling more than anything and not the recurring rossby wave train 

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Had a moment to peek on the bsr for the 7-9th timeframe 

IMG_5017.GIF.c35fcb899a0f9c183b279e1f7fe91b5d.GIFIMG_5018.GIF.56f1fffba51a439e9cd35feb12b4f91a.GIF

this appears to be a signal for a miller B

Given that the ear has a miller b type look and the fact that the typhoon in the western pacific won't be recurving if it all until the 31st, the 7-9th timeframe seems to now be the next properly signaled timeframe for the east coast 

 

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To keep things seperate and organized I'll likely make a thread so not to muddy the waters 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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I see a topic was created for the 8-11 of November but it is locked so I can't add anything At this time.  I'll refrain from opening another thread until further notice and see how the moderators would like to approach 

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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On 10/21/2018 at 11:24 AM, weather_boy2010 said:

BSR certainly supports something (big?) around that time as well...

output_O4hndV.gif.02b400fc139e875d66b18b8327326e97.gif

My wedding is November 2nd, so as long as we don't get any crazy snowstorm that day, I will be fine with this! Lol

Congrats! 

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12z guidance so far today keeps a small pulse on this time frame for something more than a fropa 

It's ok to prognosticate in the long range with the information at hand, but anything beyond 5 days for the medium range models is subject to a possible large swing 

here are cmc and gfs h5 vortucity depictions for D10

IMG_5034.PNG.bde279ecfda7cee86d0a66b81e0766f9.PNGIMG_5035.PNG.b8ed93e9b8848ebb98ffd2f8d49d170f.PNG

Still very different and the cmc may even swing some type of phase around the quasi vortex parked over the hudson

so even though the 7-9th timeframe currently may look like the better signal we still have a storm to clear at the end of October before any numerical model has a clue 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Here are the esrl tele forecasts from this morning along with the PNA from 0z gefs

IMG_5036.thumb.PNG.933dc530eebb61eba14dbc613edc4a78.PNGIMG_5037.thumb.GIF.3562b361dfc2deee454ebef7b42e993a.GIF

There is a small uptick now apparent around nov2nd which would help greatly for this to become any type of ecs besides a cool fropa 

with the Epo going negative leading up this we can assume there may be an intrusion of colder air in the wake of the oct 29-31st period 

interesting adjustment for now and something to monitor

Edited by Poconosnow

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Here are two gifs showing how it may be possible to go from a frontal passage on the tail end of a glc to an east coast storm of sorts 

IMG_5039.GIF.dd1a14d6034f80d6d7cb7f916b9aa656.GIFIMG_5040.GIF.44ec2eb27a39d64359adb387754badcd.GIF

We see that small bump I need pna allows for some a transferish type scenario 

now is this probable, not sure but I'm erring on the side of caution as the mean trough does appear centrally based

but one must remeber that the bsr did depict this at the surface on the 3rd

IMG_5043.GIF.36ded87f5668074949be0d5b5dc6ec1a.GIF

Appears to be a frontal passage with a small transfer 

still plenty of time to work out details 

IMG_5041.GIF

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18z gfs 

a small rise in the pna region gives the vorticity and subsequent trough just enough of a bump to depict a rain to an inland northeast mix event.  The eastern/atlantic ridge is definitely weaker and has a more zonal flow leading up to the storm 

check out the 48hr h5 trends notice how the trough and the eastern ridging are in the blue/dropping and the heights in the pna region in the red/rising

all good trends to see an ecs 

IMG_5064.PNG.25b36e0b31c136c189bb27c72680b311.PNGIMG_5063.PNG.e2c28ca86a1e47387cee8ab14c14abf2.PNG

still a long way to go, but today's runs were a small shift east with most modeling 

 

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Edited by Poconosnow

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Fv3 spins the quasi vortex it makes from the previous multi sw depiction for the previous thread and h5 looks like this

IMG_5066.PNG.24292c0ff5a47e4172737ae42c9c119e.PNGIMG_5067.PNG.df67a13a2a41c473fc2406bc7f4dba02.PNG

a 998mb lp off shore with plenty of cold air around

today we saw some pretty good  improvements from what I earlier opined to be a possible frontal passage 

the chaotic nature of the first storm will continue to clearly swing the solutions for this threat to and fro

additionally there is a split flow system on fv3 Right after the one posted .  Not sure it's what the focus is on here but interesting nonetheless.

fun 🙂

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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06z gfs

this

IMG_5072.PNG.f540719e3c3d7985d674db6a0f22b520.PNG

Leads to this look

IMG_5073.PNG.d978e08d381e97185de7c892033016e9.PNG

IMG_5071.PNG.13c2bcae6e8a2b4d90d8122750c8eb59.PNG

 

This comes on the tail end of a fropa still, 1022mb hp sneaks in over top

maybe with a bit more separation between waves we can get it slide in place better and come in a tad stronger

prolly will change as we come closer to sorting out the previous storm 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Fv3 has the quasi vortex look still that could lead to a bigger iteration of a storm than a development on a boundary of the tail end of a fropa

 

IMG_5074.PNG

IMG_5075.PNG

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EPS run from this morning

1505144075_10-240zepsrun.gif.9792b326ab76fa7152ccc0fa800a8dc6.gif

GFS

1472209118_10-246zgfsrun.gif.efc016535ef744d624af0d845a1f532f.gif

Edited by StretchCT
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18 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

EPS run from this morning

1505144075_10-240zepsrun.gif.9792b326ab76fa7152ccc0fa800a8dc6.gif

GFS

1472209118_10-246zgfsrun.gif.efc016535ef744d624af0d845a1f532f.gif

End of eps run for the 7-10 has a good look, a bit more seperation between waves would be nice 

Still a long ways out and storms to get through 

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Now this one - as currently modeled, verbatim  - IS an Apps Runner. 

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Quite the mess at 500mb on 12z gfs op

10 days out mind you

IMG_5093.PNG.16a9e4202d168b841d3ba607b3d9c9b0.PNG

Gif of surface shows less of a storm developing on a fropa boundary and more of stand alone disturbance in the continental flow 

IMG_5094.GIF.b54c312ea6336c5b49999ab561a5441b.GIF

CMC 12z at h5 10d lead is a less sharp and a bit more broad  and progressive in its trough depiction 

IMG_5095.PNG.e295bb6b6a7069f3d69b420934211904.PNG

 

Will post euro when I have a moment 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Fv3 looks more like euro from 00z 

IMG_5097.PNG.aa48c17776eca40df4076e8cae703e58.PNG

IMG_5098.PNG.bb5246757a911a37789141f366fce02d.PNG

even has a small HP above it 

this wouldn't depict a fropa at all as the front would be tied more into the storm origin regardless of it currently modeled track

will give fv3 a small bump of confidence as it seemed to handle the multi wave depiction of our 30th storm more steadily than the gfs op which back and forth a bit

Will post fv3 hr240 when out so comparisons can be extracted 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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At he 240 the euro sends this storm up and away leaving behind a tounge of low pressure reaching out of the gulf

its similar to the gfs op just 12hrs slower.  Nothing new there

 

 

 

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Quick 18z h5 updateIMG_5127.PNG.98140a8699f22dadfe1506d58df798ef.PNG

@UTSwiinii proverb

"Watch 18z for changes and monitor future runs"

we do need some better spacing between the Manitoba mauler prior and this storm that follows on the boundary

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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