Poconosnow 468 Posted October 22, 2018 (edited) 46 minutes ago, jdrenken said: ESRL website... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/ 1 hour ago, weather_boy2010 said: Again, I kinda like this because of what the BSR was depicting. Btw, where do you pull this map from @jdrenken? Another esrl psd link.. shared info is the best info :) Here are probalistic composite maps link that essentially matches the cpc's duration https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/probabilities/index.html For example here is height for the 8-14d timeframe, closest to this thread Edited October 22, 2018 by Poconosnow 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weather_boy2010 389 Posted October 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, jdrenken said: ESRL website... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/ 18 minutes ago, Poconosnow said: Anither estl psd link.. shared info is the best info :) Here are probalistic composite maps link that essentially matches the cpc's duration https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/probabilities/index.html For example here is height for the 8-14d timeframe, closest to this thread Thank you to you both! That's how I've learned a lot of what I know today, through shared information! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 22, 2018 (edited) 18z fv3 This is the 2-3rd but the PNA as depicted with the mean trough for this timeframe is a good representation on how the east can see a storm for this period. The eastern us/Atlantic ridging is not as strong allowing for the track that is depicted. Ya know, just keeping things up to date best I can while providing some objective information as it relates to this period. Edited October 23, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,074 Posted October 23, 2018 Just now, Poconosnow said: 18z fv3 This is the 2-3rd but the PNA as depicted with the mean trough for this timeframe is a good representation on how the east can see a storm for this period. The western ridging is not as strong allowing for the track that is depicted. Ya know, just keeping things up to date best I can while providing some objective information as it relates to this period. This 18Z FV3 run looks better than the other few past runs, if the goa, is getting snow in the Northeeast US. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) As is the case with east Asia modeling, 97w now waits to recurve until the 31st of october the euro in fact hardly recurved anything substantial on 0z run last night this unfortunately falls in line with how the mean continental us trough is starting to look for this period (central US based) on the numerical modeling. More likely than not, thus period will simply be a frontal passage with a cold rain. notice the anomalies on this east Asia forecast depicting ridging in the west is and ridging in the east with a deep trough in central us i will dive in a bit further this afternoon when I have time but all is not lost, it may simply mean nov 7-10th could be a better time period to investigate for an ecs Threads like this are a learning experience, so I will keep updating regardless until we know for sure umlike other organic signals the typhoon rule in the longer is based on modeling more than anything and not the recurring rossby wave train Edited October 23, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) Had a moment to peek on the bsr for the 7-9th timeframe this appears to be a signal for a miller B Given that the ear has a miller b type look and the fact that the typhoon in the western pacific won't be recurving if it all until the 31st, the 7-9th timeframe seems to now be the next properly signaled timeframe for the east coast To keep things seperate and organized I'll likely make a thread so not to muddy the waters Edited October 23, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) I see a topic was created for the 8-11 of November but it is locked so I can't add anything At this time. I'll refrain from opening another thread until further notice and see how the moderators would like to approach Edited October 23, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Uscg ast 1,088 Posted October 23, 2018 On 10/21/2018 at 11:24 AM, weather_boy2010 said: BSR certainly supports something (big?) around that time as well... My wedding is November 2nd, so as long as we don't get any crazy snowstorm that day, I will be fine with this! Lol Congrats! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) 12z guidance so far today keeps a small pulse on this time frame for something more than a fropa It's ok to prognosticate in the long range with the information at hand, but anything beyond 5 days for the medium range models is subject to a possible large swing here are cmc and gfs h5 vortucity depictions for D10 Still very different and the cmc may even swing some type of phase around the quasi vortex parked over the hudson so even though the 7-9th timeframe currently may look like the better signal we still have a storm to clear at the end of October before any numerical model has a clue Edited October 23, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) Here are the esrl tele forecasts from this morning along with the PNA from 0z gefs There is a small uptick now apparent around nov2nd which would help greatly for this to become any type of ecs besides a cool fropa with the Epo going negative leading up this we can assume there may be an intrusion of colder air in the wake of the oct 29-31st period interesting adjustment for now and something to monitor Edited October 23, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 Here are two gifs showing how it may be possible to go from a frontal passage on the tail end of a glc to an east coast storm of sorts We see that small bump I need pna allows for some a transferish type scenario now is this probable, not sure but I'm erring on the side of caution as the mean trough does appear centrally based but one must remeber that the bsr did depict this at the surface on the 3rd Appears to be a frontal passage with a small transfer still plenty of time to work out details 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) 18z gfs a small rise in the pna region gives the vorticity and subsequent trough just enough of a bump to depict a rain to an inland northeast mix event. The eastern/atlantic ridge is definitely weaker and has a more zonal flow leading up to the storm check out the 48hr h5 trends notice how the trough and the eastern ridging are in the blue/dropping and the heights in the pna region in the red/rising all good trends to see an ecs still a long way to go, but today's runs were a small shift east with most modeling Edited October 23, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 23, 2018 (edited) Fv3 spins the quasi vortex it makes from the previous multi sw depiction for the previous thread and h5 looks like this a 998mb lp off shore with plenty of cold air around today we saw some pretty good improvements from what I earlier opined to be a possible frontal passage the chaotic nature of the first storm will continue to clearly swing the solutions for this threat to and fro additionally there is a split flow system on fv3 Right after the one posted . Not sure it's what the focus is on here but interesting nonetheless. fun 🙂 Edited October 24, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 (edited) 06z gfs this Leads to this look This comes on the tail end of a fropa still, 1022mb hp sneaks in over top maybe with a bit more separation between waves we can get it slide in place better and come in a tad stronger prolly will change as we come closer to sorting out the previous storm Edited October 24, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 Fv3 has the quasi vortex look still that could lead to a bigger iteration of a storm than a development on a boundary of the tail end of a fropa Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 Euro 0z look out to hr240 not bad Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StretchCT 1,633 Posted October 24, 2018 (edited) EPS run from this morning GFS Edited October 24, 2018 by StretchCT 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 18 minutes ago, StretchCT said: EPS run from this morning GFS End of eps run for the 7-10 has a good look, a bit more seperation between waves would be nice Still a long ways out and storms to get through Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
UTSwiinii 1,883 Posted October 24, 2018 Now this one - as currently modeled, verbatim - IS an Apps Runner. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 (edited) Quite the mess at 500mb on 12z gfs op 10 days out mind you Gif of surface shows less of a storm developing on a fropa boundary and more of stand alone disturbance in the continental flow CMC 12z at h5 10d lead is a less sharp and a bit more broad and progressive in its trough depiction Will post euro when I have a moment Edited October 24, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 (edited) Fv3 looks more like euro from 00z even has a small HP above it this wouldn't depict a fropa at all as the front would be tied more into the storm origin regardless of it currently modeled track will give fv3 a small bump of confidence as it seemed to handle the multi wave depiction of our 30th storm more steadily than the gfs op which back and forth a bit Will post fv3 hr240 when out so comparisons can be extracted Edited October 24, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 Hr240 fv3 break time will check in later, work to finish up Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 At he 240 the euro sends this storm up and away leaving behind a tounge of low pressure reaching out of the gulf its similar to the gfs op just 12hrs slower. Nothing new there Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poconosnow 468 Posted October 24, 2018 (edited) Quick 18z h5 update @UTSwiinii proverb "Watch 18z for changes and monitor future runs" we do need some better spacing between the Manitoba mauler prior and this storm that follows on the boundary Edited October 24, 2018 by Poconosnow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
