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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 1-7, 2018 | Fropa(s)

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So 12z gfs speeds up the fropa that has some development on the tail end on the 1-2 time frame 

looks like this IMG_5142.PNG.74d892d8eb6354a21654eb42ae0c3dd7.PNGIMG_5143.PNG.297f4e28dc23438fab0c5417f02ce13f.PNG

 

then h5 looks like the s on the 3rd which is first date for this thread IMG_5144.PNG.c26e9e8c65b155a7c9804a75fe44a1e0.PNG

Small reflection of an lp in the gom

IMG_5145.PNG.33c4067e4f742206a86523100ee3546f.PNG

 

No surprise the gfs sped up the frontal passage.

so today it appears we will be looking at what comes behind the tail end of the Manitoba/Ontario mauler 

Edited by Poconosnow

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There's enough time that a 1033mb hp is able to sneak in to the NE at the very top right of map 

 

IMG_5149.PNG

IMG_5150.PNG

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outcome is still the same as the previous track we looked at but now it appears that it is focused on a different energy in the mean continental trough

 

IMG_5151.PNG

IMG_5152.PNG

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Ok so we know the gfs focused on a different piece of energy today than it did yesterday but basically depicted the same deep central US trough and ran the energy through it.

12z euro takes it a step further and closes off the energy in the central US but spikes a +PNA causing a miller B of sorts that transfers the surface lp to the New England coast 

IMG_5156.PNG.a7bf64672117cea3abefaee800abe0d2.PNGIMG_5155.thumb.PNG.4305cac9c2d01597e11e187ebd5a530d.PNG

No other model really depicts this so we have to keep it filed under suspect for now 

these frames are still in the 9-10d lead range so nothing is out the door as of yet even though most deterministic modeling indicates central trough with a mean storm track from tenn valley into the lakes. 

Probalstic solutions are so muddeled that they basically wash out the mean with all their solutions. This will likely be the case until the eom storm clears and we have a better idea of what kind of upper air pattern will settle in to our north.

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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18z develops a bit of energy on the tail of the fropa in the 1-2 timeframe

then has this look at h5 18z

 

IMG_5158.PNG

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Leads to this depiction 

IMG_5159.PNG.0b2e5873d77bf0e0f85a0b87fac33e55.PNGIMG_5161.thumb.PNG.fbf3c99b023f3dcbf252996da27478d4.PNGIMG_5160.thumb.PNG.a40d985eb32cc80615635034eda1c6c5.PNG

So we have another run that falls on the eastern side of the envelope.  It just gets there differently than the euro. 

Remember watch 18z for changes and the monitor future runs for any consistency. 

 

 

 

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18z gfs z500 48hr trends frame valid 06z NOV 4IMG_5162.PNG.3087a78d4b1f41c7f6935468de77a5c3.PNG

pna is rising which could be the main reason we are seeing some solutions coming in on the eastern side of the latest suites

 

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Someone may need to open a Nov 1-2 thread for the developing wave on the tail end of the frontal passage 

Edited by Poconosnow

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3 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

18z gfs z500 48hr trends frame valid 06z NOV 4IMG_5162.PNG.3087a78d4b1f41c7f6935468de77a5c3.PNG

pna is rising which could be the main reason we are seeing some solutions coming in on the eastern side of the latest suites

 

@Poconosnow, some EPS control data from the 12Z runtoday. It may be of help to us all.

eps_mslp_cont_conus_234.thumb.png.b5740cba6ca49c7ab9df07d8673762c7.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_240.thumb.png.b7b0f50f3932fbd06964d2ec1a9a8969.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_246.thumb.png.8ea862bbd1a739b6b7fcb004f019bb9a.png

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6z gfs 

IMG_5180.PNG.34597b1e2794a5e86e94ac65b84911b0.PNGIMG_5181.PNG.200a98c9a2461335818ca2212f230f8a.PNGIMG_5182.PNG.e19e0331a772aa2434e42bafb8f44e26.PNG

If you look at the first shot you can see some Atlantic moisture being added by a tropical storm remnant which is currently in la la land on the models.  

Fv3 and euro are both diff, the former is back to a fropa and the latter is back to the western most Solution

 

IMG_5184.PNG

IMG_5185.PNG

IMG_5186.PNG

IMG_5187.PNG

Edited by Poconosnow

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Ick

qoQrgw8.png

mSznGD6.png

 

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f216.thumb.gif.1935efed8ecc5cdcf9598ecd667dfe39.gif

Pretty straight forward, huh? Yaright.

 

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Lots of timing issues on models which leads to pick-an-energy type solutions

ecmfw is western most, no surprise as itblike to phase

gfs is a fropa 

cmc is probably the coldest solution and falls in middle of envelope 

Fv3 gfs is the eastern most and is along the coast but isn't strong which is nice sonits not a total washout 

model timestamps don't match as timing issues still abound.  Must watch the tropical remnant for Atlantic moisture injection 

 

 

IMG_5191.PNG

IMG_5192.PNG

IMG_5193.PNG

IMG_5194.PNG

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12z eps small tounge to the SE of lp comin has from gom

IMG_5200.PNG.94b4c1e8662777c83578da6f096d25ff.PNG

this will certainly not lack moisture either 

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@Poconosnow just a note, try and use a spoiler when you post 3+ images.

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1 minute ago, Solstice said:

@Poconosnow just a note, try and use a spoiler when you post 3+ images.

Wut? 

Im doing play by play and extrapolating 

Edited by Poconosnow
  • Haha 1

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Spoiler 

lp off coast 

ho on top and behind 

 

IMG_5216.PNG

 

 

IMG_5217.PNG

Edited by Poconosnow

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Not bad 

better than the west side of the envelope hadIMG_5219.PNG.fadbf6baea5ff435bd3abe61a104b8e4.PNGIMG_5218.PNG.45151847e30185cf86cb08f6df06355a.PNG

Remember, if 18z signals a change, keep close eye on future ru s for consistency 

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6 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Wut? 

Im doing play by play and extrapolating 

Spoiler as in to hide the images unless you click on them. Check the quote I added below, just added a spoiler so that the images can be opened and closed by the viewer. Makes it easier to read + scroll.
 

2 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

Lots of timing issues on models which leads to pick-an-energy type solutions

ecmfw is western most, no surprise as itblike to phase

gfs is a fropa 

cmc is probably the coldest solution and falls in middle of envelope 

Fv3 gfs is the eastern most and is along the coast but isn't strong which is nice sonits not a total washout 

model timestamps don't match as timing issues still abound.  Must watch the tropical remnant for Atlantic moisture injection 

 

Spoiler

 

IMG_5191.PNG

IMG_5192.PNG

IMG_5193.PNG

IMG_5194.PNG

 

 

 

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