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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 1-7, 2018 | Fropa(s)

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6 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Spoiler as in to hide the images unless you click on them. Check the quote I added below, just added a spoiler so that the images can be opened and closed by the viewer. Makes it easier to read + scroll.
 

 

Yea i realized what you meant then 

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A nov 1-2 thread needs opened for the fropa or development off the front

if nothing is open by tm morning I'll do it.  I don't mi d opening soggy threads

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V3 - always wanting to play "candy man"

TT - FV3

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12z gfs suites so far turn this amplified flow into a more progressive tail end and slide the trough eastward pushing the boundary and atmospheric river off the coast 

gfs cmc and icon all similar 

the 1-2 looks like a fropa still and may need a thread if you want to track more rain lol 

all the same I'd prefer not to be on the tail end of an atmospheric river with no significant low pressure develoment

will keep thread updated one way or the other 

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Seems like the frontal boundary will stall more-or-less along the Appalachians. As a result, the heaviest precipitation should be to the west of the Apps (esp. the OHV). I wouldn't be surprised at some flooding issues in upstate NY though. 

2057555921_10-2912zGEFSQPFh132.png.31d8f68ab48cd2bdcb7a5053dc139183.png

930812838_10-299zSREFqpf.gif.fb34d856704acc4d777d2ea33cf4fcc8.gif

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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this thread was never meant for the initial frontal boundary (1-2) but no one opened a seperate thread and if it's all the same we could use this thread for both the former fropa and then the subsequent follow up shortwave and any additional rainfall (3-4) 

the embedded shortwave on the 3-4 does carry a small change for possible surface lp development which would throw back some moisture from off shore 

another crappy 4 day period looks to be shaping up from the 1-4th.  A great way to kick off November 🙄😊

 

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Gonna be a soggy week...

Screen Shot 2018-10-30 at 12.07.00 PM.png

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28 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Gonna be a soggy week...

Screen Shot 2018-10-30 at 12.07.00 PM.png

Just what we need. More rain.

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On 10/29/2018 at 3:04 PM, Poconosnow said:

this thread was never meant for the initial frontal boundary (1-2) but no one opened a seperate thread and if it's all the same we could use this thread for both the former fropa and then the subsequent follow up shortwave and any additional rainfall (3-4) 

the embedded shortwave on the 3-4 does carry a small change for possible surface lp development which would throw back some moisture from off shore 

another crappy 4 day period looks to be shaping up from the 1-4th.  A great way to kick off November 🙄😊

 

My bad, I didn't even check the dates. Given the general lack of activity, I don't see much need to make a separate thread. 

Overall, it seems like a stationary front with two distinct shortwaves passing through. The initial system doesn't look strong enough to move the front very much, but the second system is likely to be potent. I'm not convinced the SLP tracks will be too much different, but I think it's safe to rule out the possibility of the second storm tracking farther west or north than the first. 

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18 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

My bad, I didn't even check the dates. Given the general lack of activity, I don't see much need to make a separate thread. 

Overall, it seems like a stationary front with two distinct shortwaves passing through. The initial system doesn't look strong enough to move the front very much, but the second system is likely to be potent. I'm not convinced the SLP tracks will be too much different, but I think it's safe to rule out the possibility of the second storm tracking farther west or north than the first. 

Yea it's all good and I think I'll tweak thread title so it encompasses the front and both shortwaves 

Edited by Poconosnow
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We have had about 27 inches of rain since mid-July, and we could get as much as two more by Saturday. It is not out of the question that we reach 30 inches of rain in under four months. e are already approaching 1972 for our fourth wettest year on record.

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While unsupported by other guidance, it seems to be worth mentioning that the NAM has a couple hours of plaster snow on the back end of the main system. I wouldn't be surprised to see some winter weather advisories issued for a couple inches of slop at higher elevations.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

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My local forecast raised temps and backed off on precip amounts drastically. That said, it's mostly 50's/30's over the next week, which is just fine for the first days of November. 

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Certainly do not need rains like this as stated by KALB(Albany NWS) in their HWO. The ground is still very saturated. If we get the high winds they say that could materialize late Saturday after receiving 2-4 inches of more rain. Well that is BAD RECIPE for trees/limps coming down and power outages. :classic_sad:

Quote

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
 

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FLUS41 KALY 311914
HWOALY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
314 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-011100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
314 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Rain, moderate to heavy at times, will occur Thursday night into
Saturday. The rainfall will come in two surges, one Thursday night
into early Friday, and then Friday into Saturday. By the time the
rain tapers off on Saturday, 2 to 4 inches of rain may occur.

Some main stem rivers may reach minor flood stage. If confidence
increases that the rain may cause widespread flooding, then a flood
watch may be issued for part of the area. Rivers would crest
Saturday into Sunday.

This amount of rainfall will also be enough to produce ponding of
water on roadways, especially where storm drains are clogged with
fallen leaves. In addition, flooding of poorly drained low lying
areas will be possible.

Further, as a storm system strengthens on Saturday, strong westerly
winds are possible Saturday into Saturday night. A high wind watch,
warning or advisory may be issued at a later time.

 

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well the yard is mowed for the last time gardens cleaned up summer stuff put away snow blower  ready was nice to get it done with this warm up .

 

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11 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Certainly do not need rains like this as stated by KALB(Albany NWS) in their HWO. The ground is still very saturated. If we get the high winds they say that could materialize late Saturday after receiving 2-4 inches of more rain. Well that is BAD RECIPE for trees/limps coming down and power outages. :classic_sad:

 

It's been par for the course this year, but at least we've had a few dry days with seasonal temperatures.  It's warm again, but I have no issue with an Indian Summer, per se.  I'm with you re; the water.  We certainly don't need another hit of heavy rain, even if it is normal.  

OTOH, that was our complaint back in August and September.  It's supposed to be wet, now, but back then was supposed to be dry.  We had an anomaly that we knew would be a problem if October and November became "normal."  A heavy rain in November is normal.  Cool temps that lessen evaporative drying are normal.  Autumn is traditionally a damp time of year here in the northeast.

Foliage has been weak this year, at least around here, and many of the trees are already completely bare.  "Most," even.  Not oaks, of course, because they don't drop their leaves until Spring, but most other deciduous trees around here are now bare - which will lessen the impact of wind upon them.

It is what it is, as is always the case.  Nothing we can do about it.  At least it's been seasonal for a week or two, and should be again by this weekend.  

Keep your firewood covered, more this year than in recent years.  It's already so wet, it can't even been called "seasoned."  As long as you keep it covered, it will burn OK in another few weeks.

Plus, even with this heat the insect life has lessened significantly, so there's that...

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06Z ECMWF total rain fall from Nov 1st through Nov 5th:

download.thumb.png.d7a7d2d503efc94dc2132396c0a8736f.png

 

06Z ECMWF total snow fall from Nov 1st through Nov 5th:

137959526_9-kmECMWFUSASurface1-Hourlyundefinedundefined90.thumb.png.1b1fefcbea1670442ec6d1344c3c5612.png

 

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Very substantial rainfall for the next 5 days.

Many areas near the coast getting at least 1 inch and as much as 4.5 inches of rain, especially as one goes NE'ward.

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