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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 9-10, 2018 | Storm

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On 10/27/2018 at 8:13 PM, brodoser1 said:

Still need a cold pattern to set up for ct 

Not sue what your expectations are, but it's been a fairly cold stretch.  Even up here, I don't expect snow to stick until turkey day.

10/13-10/27

STATE_TMAX-RANK-2week_latest.thumb.png.06daeeba41d7a1f0e3cc08f565475e36.png

Edit: oops that was max temps.

This is average temps

STATE_TAVG-RANK-2week_latest.thumb.png.a6b986a3b3e266702532088cc155c1a2.png

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/sub-monthly-temperatures/

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Not sue what your expectations are, but it's been a fairly cold stretch.  Even up here, I don't expect snow to stick until turkey day.

10/13-10/27

STATE_TMAX-RANK-2week_latest.thumb.png.06daeeba41d7a1f0e3cc08f565475e36.png

Edit: oops that was max temps.

This is average temps

STATE_TAVG-RANK-2week_latest.thumb.png.a6b986a3b3e266702532088cc155c1a2.png

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/sub-monthly-temperatures/

Delaware and Rhode Island were off the charts cold ... -9999! :classic_laugh:

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Timing of energies on numerical models are caught in between a B look on the 7th and then a seperate trough that brings gulf moisture on the 10th

regardless it looks like a wet period one way or the other. 

Won't change dates one way or the other just yet but this thread was opened for the miller b look that appeared on the bsr for the 8th.

 

IMG_5277.GIF.bc22d43c76345501af8537fb49d92709.GIF

So for now my thought is that it will cover the earlier timeframe and our semi progressive may amplify and slow things down a bit 

The typhoon in east Asia does not really recurve into the mid last flow so that aspect may not cause a a carved out trough

also the pattern over east Asia is not impressive and has a progressive look. So for now will be cautious to expect anything too amplified unless US synoptic changes occur in the next week 

IMG_5279.thumb.PNG.dddb4182d85977cdfc10f7198ed886dd.PNG

 

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Euro day 10 looks like this

IMG_5283.thumb.PNG.58a6ba5f00e9f06ca9033905b3504de0.PNG

IMG_5281.thumb.PNG.a1598206188be034fed4d249ad07fb01.PNGIMG_5282.thumb.PNG.35126dc8eff2f7d2ebb740dbde3ce2be.PNG

IMG_5284.thumb.PNG.af9a350bb9f55744378f0a29c6111ae2.PNG

not sure what the next 12hour period would bring but from afar it looks like there would be a chance a surface lp could form on the boundary along the coast given the negative orientation of the h5 trough and the rising height downstream peaking over Nova Scotia and the maritimes.

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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Eps 12z h5 mean with normalized std dev spread and hi-res ecmfw h5 with std dev spread

d10

 

IMG_5286.PNG

Edited by Poconosnow

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1 hour ago, brodoser1 said:

60s here in ct  this week close to 70 

Sounds like lovely weather, minus the rain. :classic_laugh: Have you had a freeze to kill all the bugs off yet?

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1 hour ago, brodoser1 said:

60s here in ct  this week close to 70 

It's absolutely standard to have days like that in October there. Again: I like the extremes, too but you need to keep legitimate averages in mind. This October was by no means warm in the Northeast.

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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9 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

It's absolutely standard to have days like that in October there. Again: I like the extremes, too but you need to keep legitimate averages in mind. This October was by no means warm in the Northeast.

I think a little western Atlantic ridging could be a good thing for storm tracking, it can certainly burn us at times, but it's worth the risk in my humble opinion.  No fun having cold without the snow, but it is nice to get the ground frozen first.

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35 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I think a little western Atlantic ridging could be a good thing for storm tracking, it can certainly burn us at times, but it's worth the risk in my humble opinion.  No fun having cold without the snow, but it is nice to get the ground frozen first.

When I was a kid, I just wanted to see a terrible winter - as early and for as long as possible. As an adult, having to deal with day to day even when it snows, I don't want a 93/94 redux. That said, I certainly wouldn't complain if one started up. I do know, however, that even in the worst winter on record - Nothing was going on by now. There was a pretty intense rain/wind nor'easter on Halloween of 93. By Christmas, there was about 4-6 inches of snow on the ground from smaller accums but temps were *cold*. Nothing serious happened until January, though. 

I don't have any real complaints about our current pattern. As you said - There are chances here. I'd much rather see our most active pattern set up in another 4-8 weeks, though. 

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Sounds like lovely weather, minus the rain. :classic_laugh: Have you had a freeze to kill all the bugs off yet?

Yes scraping windows a couple time and mowing maybe 1 more time just so the leaves blow to my  neighbors yard 😝

Edited by brodoser1

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On 10/27/2018 at 3:56 PM, Poconosnow said:

Re: LRC fuel 

did Gary lezak set his cycle length or something? Even if he did how do we know the nov 7-10 storm is his signature system...

be careful when observing and applying the lrc.  It's acts separately from the bsr or ear.

they are both children of the idea of recurring rossby waves but are Inherently different.  Lrc sets a cycle length while the bsr and ear are point correlated snapshots of the atmosphere. I don't want to get too off topic but I'm a believer that more than one harmony exists in the recurring waves and that storms dont necessarily "return" on a certain Amount of days.  Instead there are overlapping harmonies to the flow.  

The best way to view how major and minor harmonies overlap was to view a pendulum wave video 

Hopefully this helps show the intricate nature of waves and cycles and harmonies. Viewing a video like this years ago was what started my interest into recurring rossby waves and how they exist all over our atmosphere and even in our oceans.  Once you can see rossby waves you can make more sense of kelvin waves on our atmosphere and oceans.  These waves exists all the way From rippling against and disrupting our stratosphere to traveling and reflecting off coastlines sparking enso swings.  Google is your friend, keep up the research! Cheers 🙂

 

This video just made so many things click.... 

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45 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

Yes scraping windows a couple time and mowing maybe 1 more time just so the leaves blow to my  neighbors yard 😝

I have those ridiculous stink bug beatles in my window panes every time I open the windows to get fresh air. Typically, this is a good sign for some heavy snow that winter. Ladybugs in the fall in the northeast = indian summer or a non winter usually. I haven't seen *one* ladybug this year. Great sign. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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8 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

I have those ridiculous stink bug beatles in my window panes every time I open the windows to get fresh air. Typically, this is a good sign for some heavy snow that winter. Ladybugs in the fall in the northeast = indian summer or a non winter usually. I haven't seen *one* ladybug this year. Great sign. 

I think we see the hordes of stinkbugs regardless. Warm or cold. Rain or shine. Snow or not.  Stinkbugs will continue to torment us every fall and spring from now to eternity. 

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1 minute ago, 1816 said:

I think we see the hordes of stinkbugs regardless. Warm or cold. Rain or shine. Snow or not.  Stinkbugs will continue to torment us every fall and spring from now to eternity. 

I was hoping they'd be dead by now. I share the heat with housemates currently and they are dead set on making it like the Sahara every night. I open the windows to offset it and every night there's another 2-4 of these things flying around the room right away. 

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10 hours ago, Uscg ast said:

This video just made so many things click.... 

Yes it is known to have that effect 🙂

 

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I will welcome stink bugs any day over these damn cave crickets. They love cool damp areas, and obviously the northeast has no shortage of them. They look like a cross between those bugs from Starship Troopers and Predator without his mask. Nope.

10 hours ago, 1816 said:

I think we see the hordes of stinkbugs regardless. Warm or cold. Rain or shine. Snow or not.  Stinkbugs will continue to torment us every fall and spring from now to eternity. 

 

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10 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

I will welcome stink bugs any day over these damn cave crickets. They love cool damp areas, and obviously the northeast has no shortage of them. They look like a cross between those bugs from Starship Troopers and Predator without his mask. Nope.

 

Nope indeed. Those are nasty little buggers.

giphy_2.gif.d598ddb76b302571c9a23239397ceac0.gif

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18 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

Euro day 10 looks like this

IMG_5283.thumb.PNG.58a6ba5f00e9f06ca9033905b3504de0.PNG

IMG_5281.thumb.PNG.a1598206188be034fed4d249ad07fb01.PNGIMG_5282.thumb.PNG.35126dc8eff2f7d2ebb740dbde3ce2be.PNG

IMG_5284.thumb.PNG.af9a350bb9f55744378f0a29c6111ae2.PNG

not sure what the next 12hour period would bring but from afar it looks like there would be a chance a surface lp could form on the boundary along the coast given the negative orientation of the h5 trough and the rising height downstream peaking over Nova Scotia and the maritimes.

 

I appreciate all the work everyone does here!  Thank you for that.  Even though my understanding of it is pretty much...

Image result for math lady meme

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33 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

GFS gives the region some love late in this timeframe...

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_46.pnggfs_T850_us_46.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

 

There,'s a thread inhidden mode under construction for the N8v 12-15 time frame.

So, that is an interesting run. 

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