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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 9-10, 2018 | Storm

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

There,'s a thread inhidden mode under construction for the N8v 12-15 time frame.

So, that is an interesting run. 

It is. Of course, we're still a long way out. There's no clear BSR signal for 12-15, but that's not a show stopper for me. Still, I want to see more support by the models before I buy in.

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1 hour ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

GFS gives the region some love late in this timeframe...

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_46.pnggfs_T850_us_46.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

 

Nov 12th well that will perk up this place

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51 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

FV3 is even better...will definitely be something to watch. 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_58.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_59.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

 

OH YEAH! I'll be watching with you. Love that blue in NY :classic_rolleyes:

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14 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

OH YEAH! I'll be watching with you. Love that blue in NY :classic_rolleyes:

lets get this party started

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Other thread is open so let's stick to the 8th in here

12z gfs h5 48 hr trend

IMG_5326.PNG.0d9c01471c1c7e044a642273414937f0.PNG

Another wet period for the east in this timeframe

and from the looks of the h5 48hr delta the surface lp will adjust east.

this change also falls in line with the next wpc model verif drop which would be ~10 days from the oct 30th

 

IMG_5328.GIF

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Euro darts a front across on the 6-7th then spins that lp on the boundary 

Shaping up to be another soggy 3-4 day stretch

Really enjoyed the gorgeous weather today though 

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19 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

OH YEAH! I'll be watching with you. Love that blue in NY :classic_rolleyes:

What are the chances of that scenario panning out? We're a week out. The entire Hudson Valley would be white after that with plenty of cold air sticking around in it's wake. *That's* the kind of system that would indeed get the party started early. 

edit: Oh, I see that system would be 2 weeks out to date. Still - there really does seem to be a lot of models showing a huge trough setting up in the east between the 10th and Thanksgiving. That Western Ridge is massive. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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13 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

What are the chances of that scenario panning out? We're a week out. The entire Hudson Valley would be white after that with plenty of cold air sticking around in it's wake. *That's* the kind of system that would indeed get the party started early. 

This is for the other thread 

Verification of models past day 7 drops dramatically 

Pna region 12z verif day 8

IMG_5349.thumb.PNG.8ba0c87415fb49cf05e2620bc8a710bb.PNG

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

all the reason to make sure we are discussing the proper scenarios in the proper threads

as I posted earlier, going by jds verification drop rule

the next large model verification drop could occur around nov 8-9th

IMG_5328.GIF.c650b3ddc80f9a37ee28c920f3d9803f.GIF

(the rule states that with ever large drop in verification scores you should see a minor drop ~6 days later followed by a larger drop ~10days later, then upon the rebound of verification, rinse and repeat) 

so models likely don't have a good grasp on this situation yet let alone one that's almost two weeks out (the other thread)

Edited by Poconosnow
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@Poconosnow

Please see below, today's 12Z EPS Emsemble Control MSLP support for today's ECMWF deterministic 12Z run you posted earlier.

eps_mslp_cont_conus_204.thumb.png.945d22a208c0a1508962726afb75bd2d.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_216.thumb.png.2e73ad8db40e6fd32905b14fce876806.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_228.thumb.png.f91d734e9a33ec12e725f0b554fac7dd.png

 

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On ‎10‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 2:13 PM, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Nice write up. Plenty of juicy potential and the back-to-back-to-back-etc. Nor'easters is awfully reminiscent of last spring. Will be fun to watch the next couple weeks unfold.

if it gets cold other wise just a lot more rain

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On 10/31/2018 at 3:26 PM, Poconosnow said:

This is for the other thread 

Verification of models past day 7 drops dramatically 

Pna region 12z verif day 8

IMG_5349.thumb.PNG.8ba0c87415fb49cf05e2620bc8a710bb.PNG

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

all the reason to make sure we are discussing the proper scenarios in the proper threads

as I posted earlier, going by jds verification drop rule

the next large model verification drop could occur around nov 8-9th

IMG_5328.GIF.c650b3ddc80f9a37ee28c920f3d9803f.GIF

(the rule states that with ever large drop in verification scores you should see a minor drop ~6 days later followed by a larger drop ~10days later, then upon the rebound of verification, rinse and repeat) 

so models likely don't have a good grasp on this situation yet let alone one that's almost two weeks out (the other thread)

The Mizzou IRE research also confirms.

IRE-month.jpg

current.cmcplume.gif

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On 11/1/2018 at 2:44 PM, brodoser1 said:

if it gets cold other wise just a lot more rain

Again: Considering the time of year it is - Anything else would be an extremely early surprise. 

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7 hours ago, jdrenken said:

The Mizzou IRE research also confirms.

IRE-month.jpg

current.cmcplume.gif

Indeed

and we are seeing the models react accordingly 

we see a front blast through on the 7th and a transfer on the 9th that brings in some cold left behind from the 7th. The surface lp has been adjusting slowly each run for days now.

really dig the ire research from dr. Lupo.  It's important to understand that models almost predictably struggle in certain scenarios as the long waves progress over the continent and embedded shortwaves attenpt handshakes

I don't think a few flakes in certain areas are out of the realm here

IMG_5420.GIF.971d8a9571e9885921185d37126f6514.GIF

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Hi all, my name is Noah and I live in Esquimalt, British Columbia but I will be visiting ontario and quebec between the 8th and 15th of November.  Man, is it looking stormy.  Have you guys taken a look at the FV3-GFS or the GFS at the 18Z update?  Looks like there is something for everybody in that week.  

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10 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

Indeed

and we are seeing the models react accordingly 

we see a front blast through on the 7th and a transfer on the 9th that brings in some cold left behind from the 7th. The surface lp has been adjusting slowly each run for days now.

really dig the ire research from dr. Lupo.  It's important to understand that models almost predictably struggle in certain scenarios as the long waves progress over the continent and embedded shortwaves attenpt handshakes

I don't think a few flakes in certain areas are out of the realm here

IMG_5420.GIF.971d8a9571e9885921185d37126f6514.GIF

 

Yes, the known bias of the GFS ( in particular) makes it almost "easy" to imagine such slowing in operational run depiction. 

All in all though, this seems like a pretty progressive situation and the few flakes would, for most, be fleeting - as depicted at the current time that is. 

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Interesting trend from 0z to 6z GFS...our little trailing "friend" actually brings some snow to the interior...temps over much of the region are several degrees colder as well. Still a while out, but this is the timeframe where trends become important. Top set of images is surface, middle is 500mb, bottom is 2m temp. In each, top is 6z, bottom is 0z. Pictured is 12z Nov/9. 

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26.png

 

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_26.png

gfs_T2m_neus_27.png

Edited by TheDayAfterTommorow

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SPC has the southern portion of the region already with a severe outlook - 15% ATTM which is pretty noteable for a D4 forecast

SPC

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Quote

Weather Highlights/Threats... Dynamic system in the east on Tuesday will spread rain/storms (possibly severe along the I-81 to I-95 corridor between Georgia and Pennsylvania) through the east with another shot of cooler air behind it through the High Plains. Later week more modest precipitation may renew over the southern Plains as the western shortwave taps available western Gulf of Mexico moisture atop a stationary boundary. With marginally cold air to the north, wintry precipitation is possible along and east of the central Rockies through the central Plains. Isolated but potentially heavier rains in the warm sector may spread northeastward out of the lower Mississippi Valley Friday into the Northeast and central Appalachians as the surface low deepens and heads toward the eastern Great Lakes. Northwest flow around the western Great Lakes may support on and off lake effect snows with cold air aloft and still mild lake temperatures. Temperatures will be below average from the northern Rockies through the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as reinforcing cold fronts drag cool/cold Canadian air through the region. The west will see near to above average temperatures thanks to upper ridging while the east will be a bit variable -- warming up ahead of the Great Lakes system Tue/Wed then cooling off after the front passes. Fracasso

 

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Not much time to dry out before the next rain-dump. Could be interesting. 

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Latest model output for this potential:

6z GFS3 & GFS .. and 0z CMC 

gif1.gif

gif2.gif

gif3.gif

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Man lots of rain this fall ground is so soft looks like some big changes coming end of week 

Spoiler

 

 

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I’m with the way things worked out, I’ve decided to move the frontalnpassage on the 6-7th to the fropa thread as it really relates to the mini pattern that setup to start november

The disturbance on the 9-10th is marginally different and as such would warrant it owns thread.  Makes sense to me but I’ll defer to the mods if they’d like to make changes.  Just sorta how all the long waves/fronts and embedded short waves resolved.  

Clapper posted the three looks from 06z/gfs’s and 0z cmc above

Cheers 

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