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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 9-10, 2018 | Storm

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Dr Lupos ire indicated a drop in model verification and it certainly seems that way currently

 

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12z Fv3 gfs coming in with a whole different look at h5

Deeper and swinging through 

 

C2FD0BDB-FF03-40A0-865C-FA0684B94ACF.png

 

 

1294C612-3F5D-44AF-82C4-07B31DD59D50.png

Edited by Poconosnow

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Not enough cold air in front of it for most, unless things change on the models. 

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18z GEFS has the main surface lp clustered with the coastal low

AD74EFA0-5B89-4EDE-A35C-218A21A9A79B.thumb.png.3f853923a954143874187f7e8be87d7a.png

still expecting modeling to struggle in this time frame until we get to the shorter range

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43 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

18z GEFS has the main surface lp clustered with the coastal low

AD74EFA0-5B89-4EDE-A35C-218A21A9A79B.thumb.png.3f853923a954143874187f7e8be87d7a.png

still expecting modeling to struggle in this time frame until we get to the shorter range

As it currently stands the cold air keeps getting pushed back to coming later to Ontario.  First it was the 8th now its the 10th.  I'm hoping well score a snowfall event from that low on the 9th though...still far enough out I guess things can change. 

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00Z ECMWF:

1357313795_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP114.thumb.png.812edfbd319b3c330716633d3a60d476.png

Spoiler

 

381568928_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP120.thumb.png.07458c6425ab1024ebcfd2da8e9edb58.png

1185773204_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined126.thumb.png.c4041cb09f736f2d91fa09ff95d991eb.png

34615802_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined132.thumb.png.2c227ed7f7cf75e3598f4592d66ee4b3.png

89378740_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined138.thumb.png.5fcf6e72437300d23088f06bf9278f43.png

 

 

 

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Money shot on the 6z GFS with related snowmap...not that I trust these this far out, but decent agreement in terms of LP strength and placement considering lead-time with the 0z Euro...

Screen Shot 2018-11-05 at 10.23.06 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-11-05 at 10.24.18 AM.png

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Quick spin through the 12z suite shows that ICON and FV3 seem to be on similar roads with a stronger coastal LP and therefore slightly colder solution when coastal gets going (moderate high elevation snows in New England), GFS has a weaker coastal component with inland a bit stronger leading a a warmer solution (not by much though), and finally CMC with a more disjointed system leading to a slightly weaker coastal & inland components...overall pretty impressive agreement among the majors for 4-5 days out...obviously will wait for higher rez models to join the fray before discussing details like potential p-type changes if CAA gets going on the backend.

Think 0z Euro & Ukie were somewhere between the FV3 & GFS solutions.

Edited by telejunkie
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00Z ECMWF EPS 5-Day Total Snowfall Ensemble members:

4 out of the 51 members that forecasted snow over a widespread region or closer to the I-95 corridor - ( 0 to 2 inches)

Member 03:

eps_snow_by5_e03_conus_120.thumb.png.f7f31df85f55b68fa8e540e5b7f6bdc8.png

Member 07

:eps_snow_by5_e07_conus_120.thumb.png.97572e27193681ccf0435b5a59050fb0.png

Spoiler


Member 25:

eps_snow_by5_e25_conus_120.thumb.png.ecd3477ef96253d7de6602800bd22f08.png

Member 48:

eps_snow_by5_e48_conus_120.thumb.png.7dc53e57abf19a9310790fbb2a07cf1c.png

 

 

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12Z ECMWF:

806194065_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined108.thumb.png.df1e24defc6d9129011718b2d016800d.png
1490179894_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined114.thumb.png.b9361e31cdb6bbe2fce07582c93b73e4.png

Spoiler


1600127799_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined120.thumb.png.c77cf6c210051e3aa1ccf7998886307c.png

 

 

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Quote

Interesting pattern for Friday with the gradually colder air perhaps in place while a nrn stream wave tries to phase with srn stream moisture. A low develops in the Coastal Carolinas and heads NE. Many GEFS members generate what could be accumulating snow for the nrn Alleghenies Fri/Fri night, and rain elsewhere. Operational runs of GFS and EC are supportive. Hmmm.

AFDCTP

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AFD from Albany mentions the S-WORD also.

Quote

Thursday through Saturday...Westerly boundary layer flow will remain
over Lake Ontario with surface to 850-hPa delta T`s > 20C therefore
some lake enhanced precipitation can be expected over Herkimer and
Hamilton counties on Thursday. P-type looks to be mostly rain as of
now. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough and positive PV anomaly
will dig into the Northeast Friday into Saturday with strong high
pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface indicating enhanced lift
over the region. Deterministic guidance continues to resolve a
double-barrel surface low, with one low located over the Great Lakes
and the other developing off the East Coast. This will result in
widespread precipitation over the region. P-types will predominantly
be rain, but elevations over 2000 feet could see mostly snow. Just
about all locations could see some wet snow overnight Friday into
Saturday morning, so thermal profiles and boundary layer temps will
have to be monitored closely heading into this weekend. Highs will
be in the 30s (higher terrain) to 40s (valley regions) with lows in
the upper 20 to mid 30s.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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18Z ECMWF:

EPS Ensemble Control MSLP:

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_108.thumb.png.4892ec80b6176b07049c27240353cbf6.png

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_114.thumb.png.84612e4af7ebdefe605f363951156eff.png

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4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z ECMWF:

EPS Ensemble Control MSLP:

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_108.thumb.png.4892ec80b6176b07049c27240353cbf6.png

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_114.thumb.png.84612e4af7ebdefe605f363951156eff.png

Do you have snow maps?

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13 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Do you have snow maps?

18Z deterministic ECMWF goes only out to 90 hours.  Therefore, on this run there´s no snow output for this storm yet.

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0z GFS sticking with elevation dependent snows in NMidAtl Friday PM .. if anything, slightly warmer over the past 24 hours of model output.

 

gif1.gif

gif2.gif

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Global models quite often underestimate the strength of CAD, and also downplay low redevelopment in the Gulf of Maine.  Glad this is occurring over the weekend.

GYX. My bolding.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A dry west flow aloft will continue a CAA pattern Wed night into
Fri as surface high pres slowly builds into the region. Meanwhile,
the system to watch will be a vigorous upper trof that will dig
southeast through the Great Lakes and then lift northeast tracking
to west and north of northern New England. With this pattern a
strong WAA overunning pattern of the cold dome that will be in
place will develop and spread mixed pcpn northeast into the NH region
Fri afternoon and with a widespread area of heavier pcpn for all
areas Fri night into Sat morning with total QPF likely to be in
the .5-1.0 inch range. Dewpoints will be low at the onset so
initially some mixed pcpn will be expected Fri afternoon at the onset
over many hilly areas of NH due to the evaporational  cooling of the
lower/mid levels. Although the center of the upper low passes well
to the west, a secondary low is likely to develop and track along
the ME coast. This synoptic pattern will be a classic cold air
damming situation due to the exiting upper jet in the maritimes
allowing cold sfc high pres to be stacked to the north and
northeast over the maritimes allowing the cold air drainage into
the mountains and foothills while the sfc low moves along the
coast helping keep a northerly sfc flow to the coast. Summing it
up, a decent amount of snowfall may occur before any changeover in
the mountains and foothills with mainly rain elsewhere. Although,
some other inland areas where higher terrain exists above 500 ft may
see a mix at times.

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11 hours ago, JDClapper said:

0z GFS sticking with elevation dependent snows in NMidAtl Friday PM .. if anything, slightly warmer over the past 24 hours of model output.

 

gif1.gif

gif2.gif

Major changes in storm track, from coastal NC to west of the Apps. Seems like a eastern GLC to me, probably decent snow for folks in northern Michigan especially with potential lake enhancement. 

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