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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 12-14, 2018 | Winter Storm

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Hello posters and lurkers;

Recently, the Mid Atlantic and Northeast CONUS regions have been influenced by a rather stormy pattern, with consective FROPAs passing through the region and still progged to pass through. These FROPAs bring along with them trofs to the region as the cold fronts depart, and these same trofs can allow for storms to form and affect the region, either as coastal storms, coastal huggers, inland runners, etc. Each trof that swings by the region, therefore, helps to cool down the atmosphere and the surface with the cooler and colder air that accompany them. and  as a direct result, progressively increase the snow fall cover over SE Canada and nothern areas of upstate NY and New England, especially over the higher terrain. This evolution of the colder cycle of the northern hemisphere in this almost middle aged fall season, continues to deepen as each day goes by and winter grows nearer. Having this in mind, the time frame for this thread, looks like it could bring a storm, some kind of a storm, that may actually leave its mark on the autumn. 

Given the interpretation of what the ECMWF deterministic and EPS forecst teleconnections show, along with some foggy BSR support and EPS  Emsemble Control MSLP output, one could argue for 2 possible storm scenarios for this time frame; cyclogenesis occuring near the US east coast from a piece of energy just offshore from the southeast coast, as the developing storm tracks N and/or NNE rouding the western periphery of the northern Atlantic ocean ridge OR a bowling ball type storm whose energy would come from the Pacific ocean entering the western US at a certain latitude and exiting the eastern US towards the Atlantic ocean at a more or less similar latitude. This second scenario, could end up being morphed into a clipper like system entering the US from the SW Canada region; Therefore, in other words, one scenario could lead to a more amplified storm and track, with some degree of blocking, whereas the other scenario, could allow for a progressive flow over the CONUS resulting in a less amplified storm track. In both cases, either GOMEX or Atlantic ocean moisture may aid in juicing up the storm.

As the days go by, eventualy, we will favor one over the other as the noise and fog clears.

Below, one can see the two possible scenarios outlined for this thread´s time frame.

Scenario 1:

929131080_scenario1.thumb.png.80fd30df1694c4a0272d0133a866bb64.png

 

Scenario 2:

32732831_scenario2.jpg.131164a0fa69d8427f3c9d4d94e42628.jpg

 

Teleconnections arguing for either scenario 1 or 2:

ECMWF Deterministic:

 

AO; suggesting possible availability of cold air.

1922418203_AOecmwf.png.5f17b802d5ee40ce4fb3fe8f2a49a593.png


 

Spoiler

 

EPO; suggesting pacific air presence in the CONUS, possibly arguing for scenario 2.

973442744_EPOecmwf.png.773c6b9331c3b3a2592629372c929141.png

NAO; suggesting a trof over the eastern US and possible blocking; possibly arguing for scenario 1.

2138334550_NAOECMWF.png.1eeb8a94814beb87fe7e29143dfe6fca.png

 

PNA; suggesting a lack of ridging over the western CONUS and possible more progressive flow over the CONUS; possibly arguing for scenario 2.

1447342251_PNAECMWF.png.b2557370596fc7cc141a9ae9c802fabc.png

 

 

EPS telleconnections:

AO suggesting availability of cold air.

1113858652_EPSAO.png.e9ced8e625f3ca0f5d27ec0dd10d5509.png

 

EPO suggesting pacific air presence; perhaps arguing for scenario 2.

Spoiler

 

1028447889_EPSEPO.png.182e75238759311df4c44d94a2a211cc.png

 

NAO; suggeting a trof over the  eastern US and possible block; possibly arguing for scenario 1.

2136517536_EPSNAO.png.ee34cb0842fcddc878a44767ee24c4cb.png

 

PNA sugesting a changing trof flow to a ridge flow over the western US; possibly arguing for scenario 1.

451361897_EPSPNA.png.fef13f205b3bd55f172b6a1c5f0bb7ad.png

 

 

BSR support - shy and foggy:

500mb: Somewhat amplified.

121152918_5001.png.b31938ae02195c7083c2708249ad7032.png
 

Spoiler

 

50590282_5002.gif.e457308f48442e1c49be9050b9107fd5.gif

1579318302_5003.gif.c0be011a75d0a3a9eb0f79754254cbcd.gif

 

 

BSR surface, somewhat amplified, still possibly conveying a more progresive track.May be arguing for scenario 2.

1642204416_SUR1.gif.22db328959ef1ac058be501f7b9d25c5.gif
 

Spoiler

 

578246244_SUR2.gif.fb10bbbe60d47dd79a7f1c1db7464140.gif

1116868398_SUR3.gif.7767b5e750684952f6637ef19aa87fa6.gif

1072178595_SUR4.gif.ce655d13777e3a05ddc3f1a4ba28bcb2.gif

 

 

 

EPS Control Ensemble Control MSLP:

This specific outcome argues for scenario 1.

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_312.thumb.png.bbef5338269e3451e2edb9784935fc7e.png
 

Spoiler

 

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_324.thumb.png.861bbf6e6dcc5215169eee381b09aaa2.png

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_336.thumb.png.f88feb658a250e4c655ec9fffcf5db48.png

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_348.thumb.png.8ef9fd9d0c4a155972c3b2611de38e18.png

 

 

 

All in all looks pretty interesting and at least, a fun attempt at finding a storm to track that could yet make itself apparent on models in a more convincing fashion.

So, pick your scenario and discuss.

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Good opener, bud! What's important for me at this lead time is a consistent signal on the models. 00z GFS/FV-3 both kept the signal, albeit with vastly different representations. We'll see what the 6z runs show. 

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GFS is proudly GFSing this morning...signal still there. Of note is that the 500mb energy seemed to originate from a different source this time, will take a closer look later this morning. Pregame trough and cold shot was also much stronger this run. Anyway, here is the surface reflection on 12/Nov for kicks and giggles. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

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Interestingly, the models and some OFM support CPF in the time period just prior to this time pd. So, it's a matter of that cold being around for the shortwaves to move into. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

Interestingly, the models and some OFM support CPF in the time period just prior to this time pd. So, it's a matter of that cold being around for the shortwaves to move into. 

What's a CPF? 

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4 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

What's a CPF? 

Not " a" CPF - but acronym for Cross Polar Flow

gfs_z500_vort_namer_39.png.b0fab31c7b4075527e98c0c9733d7228.png

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

Not " a" CPF - but acronym for Cross Polar Flow

Ah, gotcha. You know I love my acronyms. 

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EPS is meh...  stays with this look from 11/11 to  the end of the run 11/15 with a couple of shortwaves riding up the stalled front

bJhOnEH.png

IZmpyCp.png

wTtGfu9.png

 

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Definitely will be watching this time frame...as UTS alluded to, looks like we may finally have some decent cold air in play, so hopefully we can get some moisture (outside the GLs) to interact.

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What is critically important for this timeframe is the evolution of the preceding storm, around the 7th of November or so. That will set up our potential cold airmass, and have major implications on how our energies come into play. 

 

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We may get some help - from downstream

forecast_3_nh.gif.thumb.png.f03585d348afe90be21e54e22584971e.png

Not only blocking but a positively oriented western ridge (verbatim) ~D14

The extent to which the downstream blocking (jamming the 7-8th storm into near Hudson Bay and setting up CPF) will play a large role, I would imagine. These blocking maps are 00z GFS based so they are not exactly "set in stone". 

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This one is also grabbing my attention. Here is latest GFS depiction of this time frame.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-324.gif.8b8ae3b8ac69ad39aad23340babcdd61.gif

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4 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

We may get some help - from downstream

forecast_3_nh.gif.thumb.png.f03585d348afe90be21e54e22584971e.png

Not only blocking but a positively oriented western ridge (verbatim) ~D14

The extent to which the downstream blocking (jamming the 7-8th storm into near Hudson Bay and setting up CPF) will play a large role, I would imagine. These blocking maps are 00z GFS based so they are not exactly "set in stone". 

Yes they are based off 0z gfs runs and update daily 

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Without getting into too much detail a late blooming storm from the cape into maine looks possible 13-14th 

 

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Current rrwt composites for h5

first in 5 days prior to the 14th second is 5 days after

IMG_5335.thumb.PNG.77ccc133dec5e739be4811e8ab030ac4.PNGIMG_5336.thumb.PNG.f8833446e9521058ab07d2e4a838f37b.PNG

 

 

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East Asia rule

i drew a line to depict the western edge of the ridge boundary a storm can form on in proximity to nothern new england

then the gif shows h5 and a late blooming surface lp 

IMG_5339.thumb.JPG.70191f83dd2032268d3161444d41a0b7.JPGIMG_5338.thumb.GIF.38494b58c5a153ef09c918d7ddd0f7c7.GIF

I track everything from a fropa to a swfe to a nor'easter/blizzard so I'm along for the ride one way or another  :)

Good luck to those who want the white stuff

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Definitely enough to keep me interested...good chance of preceding cold air with another shot following...teleconnections at least marginally favorable...we shall see. Still a few days before we should pay any real attention to the surface projection. (Besides kicks and giggles, of course)

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It's Halloween, had to give out some candy :classic_tongue:

21 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

Definitely enough to keep me interested...good chance of preceding cold air with another shot following...teleconnections at least marginally favorable...we shall see. Still a few days before we should pay any real attention to the surface projection. (Besides kicks and giggles, of course)

 

Edited by PA Snow 84

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12z ECM supports our trough sweeping in D7-8, then suggests a surface low pressure (SLP) forming off the SE coast at D9. 500mb evolution more important at this time, so below are D6, D7, and D8. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

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2 hours ago, PA Snow 84 said:

This one is also grabbing my attention. Here is latest GFS depiction of this time frame.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-324.gif.8b8ae3b8ac69ad39aad23340babcdd61.gif

I wouldn't trust the modeled p-types. This looks like a classic case of the cold air arriving after the precipitation ends. Certainly an impressive storm/cold front though. 

Page topper: What do you get when you cross a vampire and a snowman?
 

Frostbite :rapper-smiley-emoticon:

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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54 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

12z ECM supports our trough sweeping in D7-8, then suggests a surface low pressure (SLP) forming off the SE coast at D9. 500mb evolution more important at this time, so below are D6, D7, and D8. 

 

 

  Hide contents

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

 

 

You do realize this depiction is for the previous thread

only the eps goes past day 10

this thread is day 12-15

Edited by Poconosnow

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2 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

You do realize this depiction is for the previous thread

only the eps goes past day 10

this thread is day 12-15

From my understanding, the first thread is for the storm that is passing through either the MW or Apps, depending on the model, setting up the cold shot. The ECM just has the energy a bit quicker. I might be mixed up, lol.

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9 hours ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

GFS is proudly GFSing this morning...signal still there. Of note is that the 500mb energy seemed to originate from a different source this time, will take a closer look later this morning. Pregame trough and cold shot was also much stronger this run. Anyway, here is the surface reflection on 12/Nov for kicks and giggles. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

Smh...a 953 low in the Atlantic? 

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3 hours ago, PA Snow 84 said:

This one is also grabbing my attention. Here is latest GFS depiction of this time frame.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-324.gif.8b8ae3b8ac69ad39aad23340babcdd61.gif

Same thing - a 963 low skipping across Ontario? These are cat3/4 pressures. 

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